????美國辦公用品公司史泰博（Staples）的市值很可能將出現(xiàn)顯著下降。另外兩家辦公用品公司歐迪辦公（Office Depot）和麥克斯辦公用品公司（Office Max）的市值過去幾年均已跌至5億美元以下。有充分證據(jù)顯示，史泰博的市值在中期可能也會出現(xiàn)重大損失。

????首先，讓我們看一看史泰博的核心業(yè)務——辦公用品。經(jīng)濟衰退和數(shù)碼平臺興起這兩大因素已經(jīng)導致美國過去三年的用紙量下降了24%。與紙質(zhì)文件相關的許多其它辦公用品，如文件夾、活頁夾、回形針、文件柜等也遭受了連鎖反應。盡管近年來史泰博從競爭對手那里搶到了一些市場份額，但是去年它的收入只增長了1.5%。相比之下，沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）的同店銷售額增長率達到了2.6%，況且沃爾瑪?shù)囊?guī)模還要比史泰博大出10倍多。

????史泰博的目標是成為全球最好的辦公用品公司。但是在今天，這算是一個誤入歧途的目標。史泰博應該立即轉(zhuǎn)變業(yè)務模式，向IBM那樣朝著增值產(chǎn)品和服務轉(zhuǎn)型。IBM在郭士納的帶領下認識到，已經(jīng)大規(guī)模商品化的硬件已無利可圖，因此它把自己轉(zhuǎn)型成一家服務型公司。IBM將PC業(yè)務部門剝離給中國的聯(lián)想集團（Lenovo），從而得以把重點放在利潤更高的服務業(yè)務上。今天，IBM的市值已經(jīng)達到2,300億美元，而且穩(wěn)居商業(yè)科技服務領域的核心地位。

????（我們請史泰博的發(fā)言人對本話題發(fā)表評論，但該發(fā)言人并未回應。）

????史泰博的業(yè)務的確包括一個服務領域——復印和打印業(yè)務。但是金考快?。↘inkos）以及Vistaprint和Mimeo等在線印刷商早已把這個服務領域商品化了。最近史泰博還克隆了百思買（Best Buy）的“極客小隊”（Geek Squad）模式，提供自己的“易科技”（EasyTech） PC升級與維修服務。問題是，史泰博的服務在價值鏈上爬得不夠高，還不能給公司帶來太多的利潤。目前，它在服務領域的大多數(shù)工作僅限于簡單維修或安裝廉價的內(nèi)存條。史泰博必須迅速行動，避免自己遭到商品化和競爭的雙重打擊。

????下面，讓我們把史泰博的收益流進行一下簡單的劃分：

????1．北美遞送部門：這個部門主要根據(jù)合同向大公司供應大批量的辦公材料。雖然這個部門避免了零售所需要的成本，但是隨著數(shù)字化辦公越來越流行，它的利潤空間還會持續(xù)受到擠壓，核心業(yè)務領域的業(yè)績也會下降。同時史泰博的商業(yè)客戶正在尋找一切辦法減少辦公開支。比如許多公司都出臺了電腦打印的限制規(guī)定。

????2．北美零售部門：史泰博的門店遍布美國各地，但它現(xiàn)在遭到了電子商務的沉重打擊。雖然史泰博也有自己的網(wǎng)站，也能從電子商務中賺到一些錢，但還是無法填補運營幾千個庫存零售業(yè)務單位所需要的龐大成本。

????另一方面，亞馬遜（Amazon）和其它純粹的電商網(wǎng)站還將繼續(xù)蠶食市場份額。隨著亞馬遜推出了免費遞送政策，在史泰博買辦公用品還有什么優(yōu)勢呢？現(xiàn)在亞馬遜正在計劃摧毀實體零售的最后一個優(yōu)點——實時取貨。亞馬遜打算在各地建立本地配銷中心，以便在當天就可以發(fā)送一些消費者經(jīng)常訂購的商品。

????另外，史泰博通過自己的配銷中心獲得更大效益的唯一希望卻被亞馬遜收購走了。這家被亞馬遜收購的Kiva Systems公司專門生產(chǎn)用于包裝和貨運的機械臂。亞馬遜收購Kiva后，不僅可以控制這些機械臂的定價，還可以限制它們對史泰博的正面影響。鏈接中是史泰博自己的證言。

????亞馬遜可能短期內(nèi)不會在這個領域做出擠壓史泰博的舉動。但即便史泰博愿意向亞馬遜購買去年最新的Kiva機械臂，亞馬遜也肯定會把最好的配送中心技術留給自己。

????3．國際運營。這個部門去年也出現(xiàn)了虧損。零售企業(yè)的國際運營部門難以管理是個眾所周知的事實。對于史泰博來說，它一方面要應對大量本土的競爭對手，另一方它的全球服務部又不能幫它迅速重新分配資產(chǎn)，因此有可能一夜之間，庫存就變成了噩夢。另外，有些國家也同樣正在進入數(shù)碼時代，它們對數(shù)碼設備的采用率甚至比美國還快。比如移動產(chǎn)品在巴西獲得了大量采用，使許多傳統(tǒng)臺式電腦和打印設備的需求卻大大下降。

????Staples may be heading for a steep decline in value. Office Depot (ODP) and Office Max (OMX) have already plunged in the last few years to sub-$500 million market caps. There is ample evidence that Staples could also lose substantial value in the mid-term.

????First, let's consider its core business: office supplies. The recession and the rise of digital platforms have led to a 24% decrease in the use of paper across the US in the last three years. Many other office items depend on the paper chain: folders, binders, clips, file cabinets, etc. Despite taking market share from its competitors, Staples (SPLS) has only been able to eke out a 1.5% revenue growth rate this past year. Compare that with same-store sales growth of 2.6% for Wal-Mart (WMT) stores on a base that is more than ten times the size of Staples.

????The mission of Staples is to be the best office supply company in the world. That is a misguided goal in today's times. Instead, Staples should immediately leverage its corporate business and transition to services and value-added products in the way that IBM (IBM) did. When IBM realized that its hardware was commoditized, it transformed itself into a services company under the leadership of Lou Gerstner. By shedding its PC division to China's Lenovo, IBM was able to refocus on a higher-margin service business. IBM now commands a $230 billion market cap and a core position in business tech services.

????(A Staples spokesperson did not respond to request for comment for this piece.)

????The one service area that Staples does offer -- photocopying and print services -- has long been commoditized by Kinkos (FDX) and now online suppliers such as Vistaprint and Mimeo. Staples has also recently tried to copy Best Buy's (BBY) Geek Squad model with its EasyTech PC upgrade and repair offering. The problem is that the services it offers do not climb far enough up the value chain to generate substantial margin. Most of the work is limited to simple fixes and installation of inexpensive memory chips. Staples will have to move very quickly to save itself from this double barrel shotgun of commoditization and competition.

????Next, let's break down the revenue streams at Staples:

????1. North American Delivery: This division supplies office material to large companies on contract and in bulk volume. While this unit avoids the cost of retail outlets it will be increasingly squeezed on margin and will suffer declines in core product categories as digitization continues to take hold. Staples commercial customers are looking for savings wherever they can find them. For example, many companies are now implementing forced limits on computer printing.

????2. North American Retail: With an extensive store footprint across the US, Staples is a sitting duck for e-commerce. True, it is making a valiant attempt to capture some of those e-commerce dollars with its own site, but this is outweighed by the massive infrastructure of running a multi-thousand SKU retail operation.

????Amazon (AMZN) and other pure-play e-commerce sites will continue to gain market share. With Amazon's prime service of free shipping, what advantage is there to buying supplies at Staples? Amazon now plans to wipe out the last remaining benefit of offline retail -- the ability to have the item at the time of purchase -- by building out local distribution centers that will deliver frequently ordered goods the very same day.

????Furthermore, Amazon just bought one of the last hopes for Staples to gain efficiency in its distribution centers: Kiva Systems. Kiva makes the robots that bring 200% to 400% efficiency gains to pick-pack and ship operations. Now that Amazon owns Kiva, it can control pricing of these robots and limit their upside impact at Staples. Here is a testimonial from Staples itself.

????Amazon will probably not make any immediate move on this front to squeeze Staples. Yet, it surely will keep the best distribution center technology for itself even as Staples will now pay Amazon for last year's models.

????1. International Operations: This unit has swung to a loss over the last year. International operations in retail businesses are notoriously difficult to manage. You open yourself up to a myriad of local competitors and do not have the fungibility of a global services organization to reposition assets quickly. Inventory can become a nightmare overnight. Furthermore, some countries are now heading into the digital age with even faster adoption rates than the US. Mobile adoption in Brazil, as an example, has obviated the need for many traditional desktop computing and printing supplies.