????不管怎樣，根據(jù)匯豐計(jì)提的撥備金額判斷，分析師們估計(jì)渣打最終將支付約15億美元的罰款。這種判斷似乎有些武斷，但它仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于周二渣打市值蒸發(fā)的170億美元。投資者們擔(dān)心渣打?qū)⒈唤乖诩~約開展業(yè)務(wù)，威脅到其美元結(jié)算業(yè)務(wù)。這部分業(yè)務(wù)占該行總收入約15%-20%。跟蹤渣打的股票分析師們認(rèn)為，該行絕不可能丟了牌照，特別是考慮到正是渣打自己在2010年嚴(yán)厲打擊過程中主動(dòng)向美國政府報(bào)告了這些違規(guī)行為。

????即便是丟掉了紐約牌照，渣打也不一定要放棄清算業(yè)務(wù)。它可以換一個(gè)州和城市，比如伊利諾伊州的芝加哥、康涅狄格州的斯坦福或北卡羅來納州的夏洛特，在另一個(gè)銀行中心設(shè)立機(jī)構(gòu)。目前預(yù)計(jì)還不會(huì)發(fā)展到這一步，但如有需要，它依然擁有這些選擇。

????無論如何，周三早間渣打股價(jià)上漲6%，似乎顯示市場仍愿意相信這家銀行。但這周，該股累計(jì)跌幅仍然高達(dá)15%。分析人士警告稱，這只股票的價(jià)格可能會(huì)繼續(xù)承受壓力，直到該行支付罰金或計(jì)提一大筆撥備。

????目前尚不清楚渣打準(zhǔn)備什么時(shí)候、或者說是否會(huì)采取行動(dòng)。眼下渣打首席執(zhí)行官彼得?桑茲似乎并不是很擔(dān)心。盡管事情鬧得沸沸揚(yáng)揚(yáng)，但他還是收拾好了行囊，出發(fā)去享受夏日假期了。

????譯者：早稻米

????In any case, given what HSBC has put aside, analysts believe that Standard Chartered will end up paying a fine of around $1.5 billion. That seems a bit arbitrary, but it is far less than the $17 billion that the market chopped off the bank's market value in Tuesday's trading. Investors are betting that the bank will be barred from doing business in New York, threatening its U.S. dollar clearing operations, which make up an estimated 15%-20% of the bank's total revenues. Equity analysts that follow the bank believe that it will in no way lose its license, especially as it was Standard Chartered that reported the violations voluntarily to the government during the 2010 crackdown.

????But even if it does lose its New York license, it doesn't have to give up its clearing operations. It could set up shop in another banking center in a different city and state, like Chicago, Il., Stamford, CT., or even Charlotte, N.C. It is not expected to get to that point, but there are still options on the table if need be.

????In any case, it looks like the market is ready to give Standard Chartered the benefit of the doubt as the bank's stock moved up 6% in early trading Wednesday in Europe. But the firm's stock is still down 15% for the week. Analysts warn that the stock will probably continue trading at depressed levels until the bank either pays the fine or sets aside a good chunk of money as a provision.

????It is unclear when or if the bank will act. For now, Peter Sands, Standard Chartered Chief Executive doesn't seem too concerned. Despite all the whirlwind, he packed his bags last night and set off for his summer vacation.