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中國太陽能產業為何危機頻發?

中國太陽能產業為何危機頻發?

Bill Powell 2012-08-06
4年前,投下重注的投資者認為中國將主宰太陽能產業。現在,中國的太陽能產業已淪為一臺資本摧毀機器,包括江西賽維、尚德電力、英利以及天合光能等在內,一些最知名的企業正在急迫地尋找一線生機。這個號稱未來產業的未來到底還有多遠?
????

????糟糕的數據簡直令人不敢相信自己的眼睛。你可以查閱任何一家中國大型太陽能公司的股票表現,一探究竟(當然,如果你已經非常悲催地成為這些股票的長期持有者,你對這些圖表的內容肯定再熟悉不過了)。

????過去一年中,江西賽維(LDK Solar)的股價下跌了80%,尚德電力(Suntech Power Holdings)的股價下跌了87%。包括天合光能(Trina)和英利(Yingli)在內的其他中國知名太陽能企業的股價表現也幾乎同樣慘不忍睹。

????但這并非故事的全部。讓我們回到大約4年前,看看這些股票在那時的交易價格。2008年初,尚德電力的股價一度突破80美元大關。每股80美元!上周早些時候,尚德電力在一次電話會議上宣稱被騙取了約5.54億歐元,進而有可能危及其未來的償債能力,之后,尚德電力的股價下挫至1美元以下。江西賽維的股價曾經高達每股60美元以上,但現在已淪落至1.39美元。中國在這個所謂“未來之產業”的其他龍頭企業的境遇也大致如此。

????這些市值史詩般的崩潰頗具歷史意味,而僅僅4年前還盛行于世的一個假設讓這一幕顯得更加讓人難以置信。當時許多人認為,“清潔”能源的時代業已來臨。奧巴馬總統堅決主張美國動用政府資金創造所謂的“綠色工作”——進而導致加州太陽能電力公司(Solyndra)和其他浪費投資的出現,他的堅持基于這樣一個前提:要是美國不這么做,這一未來產業將成為中國人的天下。現在看來,這不啻為莫大的諷刺!在環保游說組織的慫恿下,容易受人擺布的政治媒體完全相信了這種推理。

????4年后的今天,中國太陽能產業已經成為一臺不折不扣的資本摧毀機器,一些最知名的公司正在急迫地尋找救生索。7月12日,江西新余市(位于上海西南部415英里處,江西賽維公司總部所在地)政府表示,政府擬動用財政資金償還賽維公司拖欠華融國際信托有限責任公司(Huarong International Trust Co.)的1.18億美元貸款。今年5月份,江西賽維在提交給美國證監會(SEC)的一份文件中寫道,如果無法改善其融資渠道,該公司或許無力“持續經營下去”。

????The numbers of so awful that you can hardly believe your eyes. Punch up any of the major China based solar energy companies and take a look (unless of course you've been, God help you, a long-term holder of these stocks, in which case you already know all too well what the charts show).

????LDK Solar (LDK), down 80% in the past year, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) down 87%. The numbers for other big Chinese names, Trina and Yingli among them, are almost as bad.

????But don't stop there. Go back four years or so, and look at where these stocks were trading then. For a brief moment at the beginning of 2008, Suntech traded at over $80 a share. Eighty dollarsa share! Earlier this week, after a conference call in which it alleged it had been defrauded to the tune of 554 million euros, possibly threatening its ability to make future debt payments, it dipped under $1.00. LDK Solar once traded at over $60 per share. Now it's $1.39. On and on we could go with all the other alleged Chinese powerhouses in the supposed industry of the future.

????These are epic, historic collapses in market valuation, made all the more stunning by the assumption, so prevalent just four years ago, that "clean" energy's time had come. How ironic it is that Barack Obama's insistence that the United States invest government money into the creation of so called "green jobs" -- which led to the debacle of Solyndra and other wasted investments -- was predicated on the fact that if the U.S. didn't do so, the industry of the future would be Made in China. A credulous political press, egged on by the environmental lobby, swallowed the reasoning wholesale.

????So now we sit, four years later, and China's solar energy industry has become nothing less than a capital destruction machine, with some of its most prominent companies now desperately flailing for lifelines. On July 12, the municipal government in Xinyu, a town in Jiangxi province, 415 miles southwest of Shanghai, where LDK has its headquarters, said it would cover the $118 million debt it owes a Chinese bank, the Huarong International Trust Co. In May, LDK said in an SEC filing that if it couldn't improve its access to funds it might be unable to remain a "going concern."

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