????過去大約十年中，總部位于伊利諾伊州奧克布魯克的麥當勞一直享有巨大成功。即使在金融危機之后的年代里，即使嚴峻的經濟形勢讓美國消費者不堪重荷，麥當勞也很少讓投資者失望。2011年，它的營收超過了270億美元，遠高于2010年的240億美元。就如《財富》雜志（Fortune ）去年夏天的專題報道所述，麥當勞市場定位良好，旱澇保收，因為人總是要吃飯的。

????但眼下，麥當勞的金色拱門（麥當勞的標識——譯注）出人意料地黯淡下來。該公司周一宣布，相比于去年同期的14.1億美元（合每股1.35美元），上季度的凈利潤跌到了13.5億美元（合每股1.32美元），跌幅達4.5%。而華爾街分析師預期每股盈利1.37美元。

????導致盈利不及目標的原因很多：美元堅挺削弱了海外盈利；食物價格上漲蠶食了利潤；此外，海外勞動成本上升也是一個因素。公司還專門提到消費者的影響：“我們看到在更多的市場，消費者信心都出現了問題，”首席執行官唐?湯普森在電話會議中告訴分析師。“不只是歐洲經濟得了感冒。”

????毫無疑問，不斷惡化的歐債危機以及增長乏力的美國經濟都打擊了消費者的信心。而對中國和印度經濟增長放緩的預期只會火上澆油。

????高管們當然愿意盡可能地討論全球經濟的整體疲軟，我們還是要仔細考察來自公司總部的商業運作問題。美國銀行（Bank of America）的分析師注意到，公司難以跟上競爭對手的步伐。麥當勞利潤下滑的同時，其它快餐連鎖店，包括漢堡王（Burger King）和塔可鐘（Taco Bell）的生意都在恢復。而像Sonic和Jack in the Box這樣的區域性連鎖店也在最近幾個季度銷量大增。

????自從2002年以來，麥當勞確實實現了漂亮的轉型，但近些年來公司逐步偏離了核心的漢堡和薯條業務，而那些食品正是讓顧客去而復返的原因。新近的盈利報告就反映了這個問題。

????《財富》雜志撰稿人霍華德?彭尼是投資研究公司Hedgeye的餐飲業分析師，他建議我們看看一元菜單的變化。隨著食品成本的上漲，麥當勞公司高層在3月份宣布，在一元菜單中用現烤餅干和冰激凌甜筒取代小份飲料和薯條。公司同時還推出了超值菜單，其中包括20塊麥樂雞、雙層芝士堡、雞肉卷、牛肉卷、中杯冰咖啡和小杯麥旋風（參見《財富》3月份的報道“麥當勞的新菜單無關超值，只見通脹”）。

????回頭來看，這些改變并不明智。一元菜單歷史悠久，低廉的價格適合不景氣的經濟，現在把最受歡迎的食物從中剔除似乎不合常理，甚至可以說有點不公平。

????彭尼說：“這樣做等于告訴一部分顧客，他們已經不再受（麥當勞）歡迎了。”

????最新的季報似乎說明麥當勞未能成功地向量入為出的美國人推銷新的菜單。開通至少13個月的連鎖店的銷售額是重要的經營業績指標，在6月30日結束的季度中，這個數據僅上漲了3.6%，為5個季度以來的最低增速。

????彭尼在去年一月份就曾警告說，麥當勞在飲品方面過度擴張。雖然公司對精品咖啡（售價較高）的關注帶來了可觀的利潤，但由于操作的復雜性，回報不見得很高。彭尼指出：“制作一杯拿鐵當然比倒可樂要慢。”

????麥當勞的女發言人稱，美國市場新增的McCafe飲品和其經典核心熱賣食品一樣，為公司利潤做出貢獻。至于超值菜單，公司認為那是“在一元菜單的熱賣食品基礎上打造的實惠餐飲選項。”

????杰富瑞投行（Jefferies & Company）的資深股票分析師安迪?巴里什則認為，麥當勞面臨的大部分下行壓力是其自身無法控制的。他說：“公司的業務運營仍然良好，只是現在行業正處在正常化過程中。”這里的正常化是指競爭對手只不過在效仿麥當勞的做法，并開始取得成功。

????不過巴里什也在想，麥當勞是不是應該另辟蹊徑了。“公司一直在走老路，沒什么變化。顧客也想試試新口味了吧。”

????For nearly a decade, McDonald's has been wildly successful. Even in the years following the financial crisis when tough economic times weighed on U.S. consumers, the Oak Brook, Il-based fast food hamburger chain rarely let investors down. In 2011, it generated revenue topping $27 billion, higher than the $24 billion it posted the previous year. And as Fortune featured last summer, McDonald's is well positioned, since consumers tend to eat there in good and bad times.

????But the chain's golden arches have unexpectedly dimmed. Net income fell 4.5% to $1.35 billion or $1.32 a share during its most recent quarter, from $1.41 billion or $1.35 a year earlier, McDonald's reported Monday. Wall Street analysts had expected earnings of $1.37 per share.

????Various factors led to the profit miss: A sharply strong dollar that cut profits; high food prices gnawed on margins; high labor costs abroad. In particular, the chain broadly blamed consumers: "We're seeing more markets that are having consumer confidence issues," CEO Don Thompson said in a conference call with analysts. "It's a little more than a European cold, if you would."

????No doubt Europe's worsening debt crisis combined with a sluggish U.S. economy have dampened consumer confidence. And expectations of a slower growing China and India, among other economies, don't help ease investor worries.

????But as much as executives focus on general economic weaknesses across the globe, business moves within McDonald's (MCD) headquarters deserve a closer look. The chain has struggled to keep up with competitors, Bank of America analysts have noted. As McDonald's sees softer earnings, other fast-food rivals, including Burger King (BKW) and Taco Bell (YUM) have, enjoyed a rebound in sales. Regional chains, such as Sonic (SONC) and Jack in the Box (JACK), have also enjoyed stronger sales in recent quarters.

????But as much as executives focus on general economic weaknesses across the globe, business moves within McDonald's (MCD) headquarters deserve a closer look. The chain has struggled to keep up with competitors, Bank of America analysts have noted. As McDonald's sees softer earnings, other fast-food rivals, including Burger King (BKW) and Taco Bell (YUM) have, enjoyed a rebound in sales. Regional chains, such as Sonic (SONC) and Jack in the Box (JACK), have also enjoyed stronger sales in recent quarters.

????Take McDonald's Dollar Menu, says Howard Penney, restaurant industry analyst with the investment research firm Hedgeye and a Fortune contributor. In March, amid higher food costs, executives announced it was removing small drinks and small French fries from its Dollar Menu, replacing those items with fresh baked cookies and ice cream cones. The chain also launched its extra-value menu, which included, among other items, 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, Angus snack wraps, medium iced coffees and snack-sized McFlurries. (See McDonald's new menu is about inflation more than value)

????Looking back, the move probably wasn't the wisest. The Dollar Menu had been around for years. And it seemed counterintuitive (arguably, perhaps even a little unjust) to take one of the most popular items off its recession-friendly menu.

????"You're basically telling a set of customers you don't want them anymore," Penney says.

????The latest quarter suggests McDonald's has struggled to upsell the new menu to budget-conscious Americans. Sales at stores open at least 13 months in the U.S., a key measure of business performance, rose 3.6% during the quarter that ended June 30, the slowest growth in five quarters.

????McDonald's has also expanded too much into beverages, Penney warned in January 2011. While the chain's focus in specialty coffees (sold at relatively higher prices) has given it considerable success, the returns are uncertain because the operations are more complex. "It takes more to make a latte than to pour a Coke," he said.

????A McDonald's spokeswoman says the chain's classic core favorites, as well as new additions to the McCafe beverages in the U.S. have added to the company's performance. And as far as its extra value menu, the company says it "builds on the Dollar Menu favorites by offering affordable meal options."

????Andy Barish, senior equities analyst at Jefferies & Company, says much of the downward pressures that McDonald's faces are beyond its control. "They're still running the business really well but things are normalizing," says Barish, pointing out that rivals have followed McDonald's playbook to plant the seeds of their own successes.

????He wonders, however, if it might be time for McDonald's to do something markedly different. "It has been doing the same old thing; they haven't done much. Maybe customers are getting a little tired of the same old thing?"