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美國房價反彈,外國買家撤離

美國房價反彈,外國買家撤離

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-07-26
就在不久之前,來自中國、加拿大、澳大利亞和其他國家的有錢人紛紛趕赴美國抄底,成就了美國房地產市場為數不多的亮點;然而,隨著美國房市企穩,價格反彈,這些外國買家已經開始撤離。

????不久以前,外國買家似乎撐起了美國房地產市場,可忽然之間,他們又開始離場了。

????過去幾年里,美國房地產市場的少數幾個亮點正是在全世界的巨富階層的幫助之下出現的。當時,隨著美國房價跌破記錄,來自加拿大、澳大利亞、中國和其他各國的海外買家發現美國房地產市場頗具投資價值。

????美國投資者和決策者對此自然表示歡迎,在這個國內買家連申請住房抵押貸款都很困難的時刻,海外豪客很有吸引力。他們中很多人都有能力以現金付款,購買的住宅價格通常也更高,成交速度也相對較快,自然讓美國立法者和投資者高興。有一陣子,兩位參議員甚至還提出一項法案,想要為現款買房的外國買家提供美國旅游簽證。

????可是,房地產信息網站Trulia指出,隨著美國房價反彈,一些早期跡象顯示,海外投資者的興趣已經減退。該網站今天發布的報告寫道,過去一年里,這家網站上來自海外的搜索請求占總搜索次數的比例下降了近10%。而根據房地產交易網站Zillow今天發布的報告,第二季度全美住宅價格中位數同比上漲了0.2%,達到14.93萬美元,這是2007年以來首次出現年度上漲。當然,盡管該季度略有反彈,總的來說美國房價比2007年4月仍然下降了近24%.

????在Trulia的榜單上,邁阿密是外國人最熱衷搜索的城市,但第二季度來自外國的搜索流量也萎縮到了15.7%,比去年同期的16.3%顯著下降。外國人對佛羅里達州其他地區的興趣也不如以前,西棕櫚灘的這一比例從12.2%下降到了10.3%,珊瑚角-邁爾斯堡地區則從11.9%滑落到了10.2%.

????舊金山吸引的外國搜索流量同樣下滑,從去年同期的9.5%降到了9.1%;拉斯維加斯出現了同樣的降幅,該市房地產市場已于今年3月觸底,房價已經開始緩慢反彈。

????聽起來似乎是好消息,房價上漲本來意味著房地產市場的復蘇加速。可是如今貸款標準收緊,外國買家對廉價房地產的好胃口消失之后,美國人能否填補這個空缺仍然是個未知數。

????誠然,本國人民仍是美國絕大多數房地產的買家,可在2007年房地產泡沫破滅之后房價跌幅最大的那些地區,包括佛羅里達、加利福尼亞、亞利桑那和德克薩斯等地,富裕的外國人抓住了機會,他們購買的住房所占比例日益提高。可如今美國有些地區房價重新開始上漲——盡管速度非常緩慢,海外需求也隨之趨于疲軟。Trulia經濟學家杰德?柯爾克透露,截至6月份的3個月里,外國買家貢獻了全美住宅銷售的4.1%,比去年同期的4.5%有所下滑。

????他說:“它提醒我們,海外需求來得快去得也快。”

????盡管Trulia的報告顯示,美國用戶的網絡搜索次數增長比海外用戶更快,但這不一定說明美國買家足以彌補外國買家可能將留下的空檔。許多外國人可是用現金付款的,不用說,多數美國人都沒有這么闊氣。現在這個光景,要申請到住房抵押貸款很不容易,盡管利率已經漲到了3%左右,銀行仍然不太情愿放貸。

????外國人攫取便宜美國房地產時,有些美國人或許心懷不滿,可這些當初急著鬧情緒的人現在或許又該急著懷念外國買家了。

????譯者:小宇

????It wasn't that long ago when it seemed foreign buyers were propping up the U.S. housing market. Just as fast, they're leaving.

????During the past few years, the world's uber rich had helped drive what little bright spots there were across America's housing market. From Canada to Australia to China and elsewhere, foreign buyers saw worthwhile investments in U.S. homes as prices plummeted to record lows.

????U.S. investors and policymakers welcomed foreign buyers, especially at a time when domestic buyers struggled to even get approved for mortgages. Many foreigners were armed with cash; they bought pricier homes, making for relatively speedier closings. U.S. lawmakers and investors welcomed them. And at one point, two senators proposed a bill that would grant U.S. tourist visas to foreign homebuyers paying with cash.

????But early signs suggest that interest from abroad has waned as U.S. home prices rise, according to Trulia. In a report released today, the residential real estate website found that online searches from abroad relative to all searches fell nearly 10% during the past year. This comes as home values nationwide rose 0.2% year-over-year to a median $149,300 during the second quarter, the first annual increase since 2007, real estate listing site Zillow reported today. Despite the rise, overall home prices are still down almost 24% since April 2007.

????Miami topped Trulia's list of most searched cities by foreigners. Traffic from abroad fizzled to 15.7% during the second quarter of this year from 16.3% the same period last year. Other parts of Florida saw interest weaken, including West Palm Beach (10.3% from 12.2%) and the Cape Coral-Ft. Myers area (10.2% from 11.9%).

????Web traffic also weakened in San Francisco, where foreign searches fell to 9.1% from 9.5% during the same period. Las Vegas saw similar declines, as the housing market hit bottom in March and prices slowly rise.

????This might sound like good news. Rising prices would suggest that the housing market's recovery has sped up. But in era of tighter lending standards, it's uncertain if Americans could make up for the fall in foreigners' lofty appetite for cheap real estate.

????To be sure, Americans still make up the vast majority of home sales. But in places that have seen the steepest declines in prices since the bust of the housing bubble in 2007, wealthy foreigners increasingly latched on to bargains in Florida, California, Arizona and Texas. But as home prices have risen, albeit very slowly in some parts of the country, foreign demand has softened. During the three months ending in June, foreigners accounted for 4.1% of home sales, a decline from 4.5% during the same period the previous year, said Jed Kolko, economist with Trulia.

????"It's a reminder that foreign demand could come and go," he said.While Trulia reports online searches by U.S. users have grown faster than those abroad, it may not necessarily suggest U.S. buyers are in any position to pick up where foreigners might leave off. Many paid in cash for their homes. Needless to say, most Americans haven't been so lucky. It's harder to get mortgage approval these days, as banks have been reluctant to lend even asinterest rates have hovered around 3%.

????Some might have turned their noses to foreigners gobbling up cheap U.S. real estate. But just as quickly as they were to judge, they might miss the interest from these buyers almost just as quickly.

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