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超極本出師未捷身先死?

超極本出師未捷身先死?

Don Sears 2012-07-26
人們本以為“超極本”可以給嚴(yán)重衰退的PC市場(chǎng)打一針強(qiáng)心劑,但這種現(xiàn)象似乎并沒(méi)有成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。最近的市場(chǎng)分析報(bào)告顯示,全球PC市場(chǎng)需求嚴(yán)重不足。倒霉的是,超極本推出的時(shí)機(jī)也存在問(wèn)題,真可謂生不逢時(shí)。

????“超極本”原本被人們寄予厚望,大家都認(rèn)為它們可以給日益蕭條的PC市場(chǎng)打一針強(qiáng)心劑。但到目前為止,它似乎遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)達(dá)到人們的期望。

????話說(shuō)回來(lái),什么是超極本?超極本是指由除了蘋(píng)果公司(Apple)之外的電腦廠商——如惠普(HP)、戴爾(Dell)、華碩(Asus)、三星(Samsung)、宏基(Acer)等廠家生產(chǎn)的搭載了Windows操作系統(tǒng)和英特爾(Intel)處理器的筆記本電腦。它們的重量一般還不到4磅,厚度在0.8英寸以下,有高性能的驅(qū)動(dòng)器,屏幕尺寸與普通筆記本電腦差不多,但電池續(xù)航時(shí)間很長(zhǎng)。(別把它們和上網(wǎng)本混為一談。上網(wǎng)本也曾一度成為行業(yè)的寵兒,不過(guò)沒(méi)過(guò)多久,消費(fèi)者就發(fā)現(xiàn)許多上網(wǎng)本的性能太差。)從本質(zhì)上講,超極本就是電腦廠商造出來(lái)抗衡蘋(píng)果的MacBook Air的機(jī)器。

????許多今年推出的超極本都將搭載英特爾最新的Ivy Bridge芯片架構(gòu),它的耗電量更低,但是計(jì)算能力和圖形處理能力都有所提高。隨著傳統(tǒng)的開(kāi)學(xué)季和圣誕購(gòu)物季離我們?cè)絹?lái)越近,廠家的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)活動(dòng)也會(huì)加大力度。從歷史上看,大多數(shù)筆記本電腦都是在第四季度賣(mài)出去的。

????不過(guò)從目前來(lái)看,消費(fèi)者似乎并不青睞超極本。最近兩家市場(chǎng)分析公司的報(bào)告顯示,全球PC市場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重魅力不足。IDC和高德納公司(Gartner)的報(bào)告都指出,今年第二季度全球PC銷(xiāo)量為8,750萬(wàn)臺(tái),比去年同期下降了0.1%。在美國(guó),這個(gè)數(shù)字更是慘淡得多,整整縮水了10.6%。PC銷(xiāo)量不景氣已經(jīng)不是新聞了——這一趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)持續(xù)了七個(gè)季度之久。雖然廠家一直想把超極本打造成一個(gè)單獨(dú)的高端筆記本類(lèi)別,但卻始終沒(méi)有取得什么進(jìn)展。英特爾公司曾經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè)到今年年末,超極本的銷(xiāo)量將占到所有筆記本的40%。但現(xiàn)在看來(lái),這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)值得懷疑。

????除了需求不足之外,影響超極本銷(xiāo)量的另一個(gè)問(wèn)題是市場(chǎng)時(shí)機(jī)。超極本進(jìn)入老百姓的生活還是2012年年初的事,而新一代的Windows 8操作系統(tǒng)要到今年的假日季才能上市。因此如果你現(xiàn)在買(mǎi)一臺(tái)超極本,它安裝的還是Windows 7系統(tǒng)。很多消費(fèi)者不想在未來(lái)的幾個(gè)月內(nèi)使用一種已經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)的操作系統(tǒng)。高德納公司的首席分析師北川美佳子在7月11日發(fā)布的一份聲明中稱(chēng):“各大廠商都有相當(dāng)一部分的研發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi)撥給了超極本,而且英特爾也向這個(gè)細(xì)分市場(chǎng)投入了大量資金。雖然超極本在2011年首次推向市場(chǎng),但是直到搭載了Ivy Bridge芯片的超極本發(fā)布,大規(guī)模的市場(chǎng)推廣才在2012年的第2季度開(kāi)始。因此,這個(gè)市場(chǎng)仍然處于早期使用者階段。”

????現(xiàn)在就說(shuō)超極本已經(jīng)失去活力還為時(shí)過(guò)早,不過(guò)由于出貨量不盡人意,許多硬件廠商已經(jīng)改變了策略。首先是價(jià)格。六月初,一些新款超極本的價(jià)格從1,200美元左右一下子猛跌了幾百美元,有些款式的價(jià)格甚至只有先前某些款式的一半。許多PC制造商一夜之間回到了起點(diǎn),又要拼命地與蘋(píng)果進(jìn)行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

????蘋(píng)果公司已經(jīng)用MacBook Pro和MacBook Air給市場(chǎng)設(shè)立了標(biāo)桿。MacBook Air更是超極本中的佼佼者,把輕薄和美觀做到了極致。索尼(Sony)的Vaio系列也用同樣的路子搞了好幾年,但它的銷(xiāo)量和市場(chǎng)影響力一直都無(wú)法和蘋(píng)果媲美。事實(shí)上,根據(jù)高德納公司的數(shù)據(jù),蘋(píng)果本季度的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到了4.3%,而其他主要廠商都出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。如果把MacBook Air比成一輛豪車(chē)的話,它好比一輛保時(shí)捷(Porsche)或梅塞德斯-奔馳(Mercedes),不僅定價(jià)高,而且基本上沒(méi)有打折的余地。如果你喜歡奔馳,就只能乖乖掏錢(qián)。現(xiàn)在許多超極本的定價(jià)也很靠近MacBook Air。問(wèn)題是,如果你有了買(mǎi)奔馳的錢(qián),為什么不直接買(mǎi)奔馳呢?

????PC廠商考慮的不僅僅是市場(chǎng)份額和季度利潤(rùn),他們還想改變自己的商業(yè)模式。蘋(píng)果主要關(guān)注利潤(rùn),而PC和筆記本電腦制造商一向習(xí)慣以量取勝,靠低成本的筆記本和臺(tái)式電腦打天下。現(xiàn)在這些廠商也開(kāi)始克隆MacBook Air的特點(diǎn),用上最高端的材料,以便在高端市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)逐利。由于廠商對(duì)超極本的預(yù)期非常之高,大家都被低需求打了個(gè)措手不及,迫使各廠商紛紛打折甩貨,甚至背上虧損。

????IDC研究總監(jiān)大衛(wèi)?達(dá)烏德在一份聲明中稱(chēng):“由于市場(chǎng)飽和等經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,加上大眾對(duì)Windows 8的預(yù)期,以及今年晚些時(shí)候的其他變化,導(dǎo)致美國(guó)市場(chǎng)今年第二季度出現(xiàn)了兩位數(shù)的萎縮。在這種情況下,消費(fèi)者紛紛推遲購(gòu)機(jī)時(shí)間,廠商和零售商們也放緩了推廣新機(jī)的動(dòng)作,以出清存貨。此外,由于消費(fèi)性筆記本趨于飽和,商業(yè)部門(mén)置換周期漫長(zhǎng),加上宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治活動(dòng)影響了人們的信心和支出,情況進(jìn)一步惡化。”

????另外微軟(Microsoft)破天荒地自造硬件的行為也讓硬件廠商和英特爾雪上加霜。微軟最近發(fā)布了一款名叫Surface的平板電腦,它搭載了一個(gè)完整的Windows版本,擁有一塊觸摸屏和一個(gè)內(nèi)置鍵盤(pán),而且還可以與微軟的移動(dòng)操作系統(tǒng)同步。現(xiàn)在我們還無(wú)法得知Surface平板電腦會(huì)不會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)者造成影響,但它肯定會(huì)影響到微軟的硬件伙伴。他們肯定不愿意看到更多的不確定性因素。

????對(duì)于想買(mǎi)一臺(tái)劃算的高性能筆記本的消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō),這種趨勢(shì)可能是件好事。但是對(duì)于那些急于在市場(chǎng)上尋找救命稻草的硬件廠商來(lái)說(shuō),他們肯定不高興。

????譯者:樸成奎

????So-called Ultrabooks were supposed to revive moribund PC sales. So far, they seem to have done anything but.

????What are Ultrabooks, anyway? They are Windows-based, Intel-powered laptops made by almost all the major non-Apple (AAPL) vendors like HP (HPQ), Dell (DELL), Asus, Samsung, and Acer. They typically weigh less than four pounds and are under .8 inches thick with high-performance drives, normal-sized screens and long battery life. (These are not netbooks, an industry sugar high that drove sales for a short time before consumers realized many models were underpowered.) In essence, Ultrabooks were intended as an answer to Apple's MacBook Air.

????Many of the Ultrabooks coming out this year will feature Intel's new Ivy Bridge chip architecture that consumes less power while increasing computing and graphics processing. Expect the marketing blitz to pick up steam as we get closer to traditional Back-to-School campaigns followed by Christmas shopping fever. Historically, most laptop purchases are made in the fourth quarter.

????For now, consumers don't seem to have fallen in love. Recent reports from two analyst firms show the global PC market in dire need of oomph. Both IDC and Gartner reported sluggish shipments worldwide for the second quarter down 0.1% from the second quarter of last year at 87.5 million units. In the U.S., the numbers were a whole lot worse, shrinking 10.6%. While poor PC sales are nothing new -- the trend extends back seven straight quarters now -- the push to establish Ultrabooks as a standalone, high-end laptop category appears stalled. Intel (INTC) had said it expected this category to make up 40% of all laptop sales by year's end. That now seems doubtful.

????Compounding the lack of demand is market timing. Ultrabooks have only really come to life in early 2012, yet the next version of Windows is due this holiday shopping season. So if you buy an Ultrabook right now, it will have Windows 7. A lot of consumers don't want to be stuck with an outdated operating system in a few months. "A big portion of R&D spending has been allocated to Ultrabook development, together with Intel's massive investments to establish the market segment," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner in a July 11 statement. "Though Ultrabook was at first introduced in the market in 2011, the major promotion kicked off toward the end of 2Q12 with the IvyBridge, based Ultrabook release. This segment is still in an early adopter's stage."

????It is likely too early to say Ultrabooks are dead in the water, but lackluster shipments already have hardware manufacturers adapting their tactics. First up is the price. In early June, new versions of Ultrabooks were announced that shaved off hundreds of dollars off their initial prices around $1,200, with some versions at nearly half the price of early models. That leaves PC makers largely where they were to begin with, struggling to compete with Apple.

????Apple has been setting the pace in the market with its MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models, the latter being the crème-de-la-crème of super light and thin, beautifully designed notebooks. Sony (SNE) has been doing this for years as well with its Vaio line, but not with the same sales impact or marketing behind it as Apple. In fact, Apple boasted real growth of 4.3% this quarter, according to Gartner, while major vendors slumped.

????If the MacBook Air were a luxury automobile, it would be a Porsche or a Mercedes, and its sticker price would be high with little to no room for discounting. If you like Mercedes, here's what it will cost you. Covet it and pay up, so the thinking goes. Right now, many Ultrabooks are priced closely to an Air. The question, in other words, is why not simply buy the Mercedes?

????More than market share or quarterly profits are at stake. PC manufacturers are partly trying to change the way they do business. Apple focuses on profit, while PC and laptop makers have traditionally found success in volume sales and lower-cost laptops and desktop replacements. By cloning the features of the Air with top-line materials, Ultrabooks were intended to compete at the top end. With expectations incredibly high for the category, the lack of demand is already forcing discounts and losses for the hardware vendors.

????"The U.S. market suffered a double-digit contraction in the second quarter as market saturation and economic factors combine with anticipation of Windows 8 and other changes later in the year. In this context, consumers are delaying purchases, and vendors and retailers are slowing down their PC activities to clear existing inventories," said David Daoud, research director at IDC, in a statement. "The situation is exacerbated by consumer notebook saturation, a slowing replacement cycle in the commercial sector, and the big macro-economic and political events affecting confidence and spending."

????Microsoft (MSFT) isn't making it easy for hardware vendors or Intel. MS recently announced it is creating its own hybrid-tablet device, Surface, that runs a full version of Windows, with a touch screen and built-in keyboard, and synchronizes with its mobile operating system. It's way too early to know if Surface will impact consumers, but it will certainly impact its hardware partners. More uncertainty is not likely to be welcomed by Microsoft's hardware partners.

????The trend may end up being a good for consumers hoping to snap up a deal but it's not going to cheer hardware manufacturers looking for signs of life in the market.

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