????華爾街人士或許正在暗自慶幸黯淡的第二季度終于過去了，但問題是第三季度一定會好轉嗎？

????從花旗（Citigroup）身上，我們看到，更多跡象顯示，眼下投行業務的情況到底有多么的糟糕。總的來說，花旗周一早間發布的第二季度業績好于預期。但幾乎所有的好消息都來自于傳統的貸款和支付處理業務，投行業務依然慘淡。

????第二季度，花旗的股票和債券交易均環比下降了40%左右。承銷業務看起來相對好一些，第二季度債券和股票發行收入環比僅下降了1%。但這主要是因為第一季度數據同樣低迷。與去年同期相比，花旗的股票和債券承銷收入分別下降了40%和20%。

????第二季度，花旗自營交易利潤同比出現了增長，但目前尚不清楚這一利好到底有多大。如果多德-弗蘭克法案（Dodd-Frank）下的《沃克爾法則》（Volcker rule）生效，大多數所謂的“自營交易”都可能被禁，限制銀行進行風險性交易的能力。不過，花旗的自營交易仍然取得了相當的收入——僅今年上半年就達到了34億美元，占機構客戶業務（包括投行業務等）收入總額的20%。等到2014年初《沃克爾法則》完全生效之時，花旗將如何填補這部分收入目前尚不得而知。

????并購咨詢業務是一個亮點：今年第二季度收入環比增長近一倍，同比也略有增長。但這項業務收入合計僅2億美元，相比收入逾180億美元的其他業務而言，顯得微不足道。

????而且，這項業務似乎正處于變動之中。今年早些時候，花旗銀行調整了并購業務領導層，2008年從奄奄一息的雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）挖來的馬克?沙菲爾不再是花旗并購業務的唯一負責人。而且，花旗可能已經給新任聯合主管保羅?泰格另外找了個搭檔，讓沙菲爾走人。據《彭博商業周刊》（Bloomberg Businessweek）報道，瑞?麥克維爾已接管花旗并購業務。因此，并不清楚花旗并購業務的增長是源于前任、還是新任主管，也不清楚這股勢頭能否持續下去。花旗拒絕給本文作者回電說明究竟是誰在掌管其并購業務。

????周一早間的投資者會議上，花旗首席財務官約翰?戈斯帕奇稱，如果市場繼續不景氣，投行業務可能會裁員。但獵頭公司稱，他們聽說花旗早已開始裁減初級銀行家，并且正在準備一輪更大規模的裁員。一位獵頭稱，他聽花旗一位新入職的應屆生說，他被調到紐約市工作1個月后就被裁掉了。

????但是，戈斯帕奇淡化了花旗投行業務表現欠佳的問題。他說，他和其他高管對投行業務的表現感到滿意。個中原因或許是雖然花旗的投行業務呈現下滑，但并不比其他公司下滑得更厲害。今年上半年，按投行收入計算，花旗排名第七——與一年前持平。這意味著投行問題是整個華爾街的問題，而不只是花旗一家。

????而且，雖然花旗有相當一部分業務依然來自于投行，但它在一定程度上可以將這些問題隱藏在其龐大的全球銀行業務之下，而其全球銀行業務看起來的確有所改觀。本周晚些時候，高盛（Goldman Sachs）和摩根大通（Morgan Stanley）發布業績時就享受不到這種好處了。

????譯者：早稻米

????Wall Streeters are probably happy to have the second quarter behind them. The question is whether the third will be any better.

????More evidence for just how bad the investment banking business is emerged from Citigroup (C). Overall, the bank's profits, which Citi reported Monday morning, were better than expected. But nearly all of the good news came from the bank's traditional lending and payment processing businesses. When it came to investment banking, things continued to look bleak.

????Both equity and bond trading fell around 40% in the second three months of the year, compared to the first quarter. Underwriting looked better. Fees from bond and stock offerings were only down 1% from the first three months for the year. But that's mostly because the first quarter was weak as well. Compared to a year ago, Citi's equity underwriting fees were down 40%. Debt underwriting fell 20%.

????The money Citi made from trading the bank's own money was up from a year ago. But it's not clear how much of a positive that is. Most so-called principal transactions are likely to be banned under Dodd-Frank's Volcker rule, which hasn't gone into effect yet and is supposed to curtail the banks' ability to make risky trades. Nonetheless, Citi still generates significant revenue from principal transactions - $3.4 billion in the first half of the year alone, or 20% of its total institutional client business, which includes investment banking, along with some other businesses. How it will replace that revenue when Volcker is fully put into place in early 2014 is unclear.

????One bright spot was Citi's mergers and acquisition advisory business. Revenue in that business nearly doubled in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, and was up slightly from the same period a year ago. But that business, just $200 million in revenue, is tiny relative to the rest of the bank, which generated over $18 billion in sales.

????What's more, the division has seemed in transition. Earlier this year, Citigroup split the leadership of the unit, taking control away from Mark Shafir, who had been lured from the dying Lehman Brothers in 2008 to be Citi's sole head of M&A. But Citi may have already given the partnership of Paul Tague, the new co-head, and Shafir the boot. According to Bloomberg Businessweek, Ray McGuire has taken over leading the bank's M&A business. So it's not clear whether the jump in Citi's M&A business is the result of the old bosses or the new one, or whether it will continue. The bank declined to call me back to comment on who was currently running its M&A business.

????On a conference call this morning with investors, Citi's Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said layoffs were possible in its investment bank if markets remain choppy. Recruiters, though, say they have heard Citi has already started cutting junior bankers, and that the bank is preparing plans for a larger round of layoffs soon. One search executive said he had heard from a Citi recruit and recent college graduate who was let go one month after relocating to New York City.

????Still, Gerspach downplayed the poor performance of Citi's investment bank. He said he and other executives at the bank were happy with how the division was doing. The reason, perhaps: while Citi's I-bank might be sinking, it's not falling faster than anyone else. In the first half of the year, Citi ranked as the seventh largest investment bank in terms of overall fees - the same place it had a year ago. Meaning investment banking is a Wall Street problem, not just a Citi one.

????And while Citi still gets a good portion of its business from investment banking, it can somewhat hide those problems behind its large global banking operations, which do appear to be doing better. That's a luxury that Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), both of which report earnings later in the week, don't have.