????投資銀行家眼下的日子還是不好過。

????從7月13日起，銀行業(yè)將陸續(xù)向投資者通報2012年第二季度業(yè)績情況。總體來看，種種跡象顯示，這個季度將令人失望。但令人意外的是，高盛（Goldman Sachs）可能是最大的輸家。這家一度備受推崇的投資銀行獲得的市場預(yù)期降幅超過了競爭對手。

????過去一個月，分析師們將高盛的收益預(yù)期下調(diào)了35%。總體而言，如今投資銀行家的日子并不好過。自從Facebook的首次公開募股搞砸了以后，IPO窗口已經(jīng)關(guān)閉。而且今年以來，并購交易也減少了21%。

????但高盛的情況可能更糟糕。分析人士預(yù)計第二季度高盛可能實現(xiàn)每股收益1.37美元。由此得出的凈利潤比季度初分析師們預(yù)測的凈利潤減少了7億美元。上周三，邁克?梅奧表示，他估計高盛交易業(yè)務(wù)最近可能縮減了多達(dá)三分之一。最近高盛的市場份額一直在流失，其中有些還是它在金融危機(jī)期間贏得的份額，但最終還是未能守住。高盛直呼客戶“白癡”的說法更是讓情況雪上加霜。

????高盛手握大量現(xiàn)金，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況是華爾街最好的一家銀行之一。人們一直認(rèn)為高盛能找到運用這些現(xiàn)金的地方，盈利將會出現(xiàn)反彈。這可能也是分析師在季度開始時繼續(xù)給出過高預(yù)期的原因。但現(xiàn)在，他們依然在等待這個扭轉(zhuǎn)乾坤的神奇時刻。

????近來，好消息是高盛沒再登上報紙頭條。而且，不像一些競爭對手，高盛不太可能需要奉上巨額和解資金來了結(jié)Libor操縱丑聞。高盛不在那些幫助設(shè)定（操縱）這一關(guān)鍵貸款利率的銀行之列。不過，高盛的確出售了一些與Libor相關(guān)聯(lián)的利率掉期，為此很多市政當(dāng)局正在抱怨，其中奧克蘭市的官員日前甚至表示將不再與該行做生意。

????高盛高管們認(rèn)為，高盛的大機(jī)會在歐洲。或許，該行能從實力更弱的海外競爭對手手中搶來業(yè)務(wù)。但在未來一年左右，歐洲可能是一個一毛錢都賺不到的地方，特別是對于銀行來說。而且，當(dāng)前高盛的歐洲風(fēng)險敞口可能更多是一個需要擔(dān)憂的因素，而不是一個積極因素。該行最近增加了在意大利的風(fēng)險敞口。

????過去3個月高盛股價下跌了近30%。最近，前《財富》雜志（FORTUNE）專欄作家貝薩尼?邁克林指出，高盛股價難有反轉(zhuǎn)走勢，除非該公司進(jìn)行分拆，或者進(jìn)一步向股東闡明其盈利模式，以及未來提高盈利的計劃。問題是這兩者高盛都不太可能做到。薪酬與規(guī)模掛鉤。透明不是高盛的文化。

????但最終，該公司或許沒得選擇。按照邁克林的說法，高盛的回答可能是在多德-弗蘭克法案（Dodd-Frank）實施后，由于對交易有種種限制，如果高盛繼續(xù)采用當(dāng)前國際大銀行的體制，它不會有太多增長空間。或許，高盛應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮放棄銀行業(yè)務(wù)，完全轉(zhuǎn)變成為對沖基金。大多數(shù)人都以為高盛一直就是對沖基金。至少，通過這種方式，缺乏透明度的高盛將變得更透明一些。

????譯者：早稻米

????It's still hard out there for an I-banker.

????Starting tomorrow banks will begin to tell investors how they did in the second three months of 2012. Overall, the indications are that the quarter will be a disappointment. But, surprisingly, Goldman Sachs (GS) may emerge as the biggest loser. Expectations for the once-vaunted investment bank have fallen more than rivals.

????In the past month, analysts have cut their earnings expectations by 35% for Goldman. It's been a tough time for investment bankers in general. The IPO window shut after the bungled Facebook deal. And M&A is down 21% so far this year.

????But something worse might be going on at Goldman. Analysts expect the company will earn $1.37 a share in the quarter. The current estimate translates into $700 million less in profits than analysts were expecting when the quarter began. On Wednesday, Mike Mayo said he believes Goldman's trading business may have recently dropped by as much as a third. Recently the firm has been losing market share to rivals, some of which it picked up during the financial crisis and hasn't been able to hold onto. All that talk of Muppets probably hasn't helped.

????Goldman has a lot of cash on hand and one of the best balance sheets on Wall Street. The assumption has long been that Goldman will find a place to put that cash to work, and earnings will rebound. And that may be why analysts continue to start each quarter with outsized expectations. And yet, they're still waiting for that magically switch to flip.

????The good news for Goldman recently has been that it has managed to stay out of the headlines. And unlike some of its rivals it's unlikely to have to fork over a big settlement in the Libor scandal. Goldman is not among the banks that help set (fix) the key lending rate. Nonetheless, Goldman did sell some of the interest rate swaps tied to Libor, which many municipalities are now complaining about. Oakland officials, for one, recently said the city would no longer do business with the bank.

????Goldman executives have said that they expect the big opportunity for the firm is in Europe. And indeed, the bank might be able to steal business from weaker overseas rivals. But in the next year or so, Europe could be a treacherous place to earn a buck, especially for a bank. And Goldman's exposure to Europe might be more of a concern than a positive for now. The bank recently upped its exposure in Italy.

????Goldman's shares have fallen nearly 30% in the past three months. Recently, former FORTUNE writer Bethany McLean made the case that Goldman's shares might not turnaround until the firm either breaks itself up or becomes much more transparent to shareholders about how it makes its money and how it plans to make more in the future. The problem is Goldman is unlikely to do either of these. Compensation is tied to size. And transparency is not in Goldman's culture.

????Eventually, though, the firm might not have a choice. To McLean's point, the answer for Goldman might be that in a post-Dodd-Frank world, with all the restrictions on trading, Goldman, in its current form as a large global bank, might not have a lot of room for growth. Perhaps the firm should think about giving up its banking business, and fully morphing into the hedge fund that most have assumed it was all along. It least that way Goldman's lack of transparency would be more transparent.