下一代的汽車業藍圖

????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的全球汽車分析師團隊近日對全球汽車業的未來做了一些展望，現在就讓我們看一下2022年的汽車業會是什么樣子。做好準備，見證驚喜吧。

????摩根士丹利的團隊采取了嚴格的量化分析法。首先，他們根據技術、地域覆蓋、戰略定位和經濟實力四個標準對汽車廠商進行排名，然后根據排名推演了四種情形。分析師們相信，這四種情形將會影響汽車板塊未來10年的表現。我第一次在《底特律新聞報》（Detroit News）的博客上看到這篇文章時，就覺得這是一個非常聰明的辦法。

????按汽車業的劃分方法來看，2022年離現在只有不到兩個產品周期，動力系統與現在只隔了一代。今天正在研發的車型屆時仍然還在市場上銷售。至于如何界定競爭的勝負，傳統的觀點可能將不再適用。在摩根士丹利推演的大多數情境中，德國的大眾（VW）和寶馬（BMW）的得分都很高，盡管他們在本土市場上可能表現不佳。中國在10年后仍然無法像日韓廠商一樣在美國獲得較大突破。在所有四個情境中，通用汽車（General Motors）的得分都要高于福特（Ford），這主要歸功于通用的混合動力車型，以及它在中國市場上的強勁表現。

情境一：巨頭壟斷

????現階段的成功廠商憑借深厚的技術積淀（如內燃發動機技術）依然能夠統治市場。汽油價格會維持在低位運行，將電動車逼入小眾市場。4G技術將成為汽車的標準配置。駕駛員可以在行車時使用整合了信息娛樂系統的智能手機。隨著被壓抑的需求得到釋放，加上新技術的引入，美國的新車年銷量將達到1,800萬輛（今年約為1400萬輛）。而新興市場受較高的擁堵成本和技術成本的影響，必須把發展公共交通放在首位，私家車放到次要地位。

????贏家：德國廠商更有可能獲得成功，因為消費者會更加傾向于夠買配置更高、口碑較好的車型。另外，通用將會超越福特，盡管福特目前在產品銷售額和動力技術上要比通用更有優勢。

????輸家：日本廠商可能會成為輸家。隨著德系、美系和韓系廠商的擴張，日本廠商的空間將受到擠壓。豐田（Toyota）是唯一一家排在第一陣營里的日系廠商，但就連它的得分也在通用之下。菲亞特（Fiat）的得分雖然在平均水平以下，但得益于和克萊斯勒的聯姻（Chrysler），因此它的得分仍然高于標志雪鐵龍（Peugeot-Citroen）。

情境二：汽車業的Facebook化

????一路飆升的油價讓人們越來越難以負擔開車成本。政府向電動汽車投入巨額資金支持。電池生產廠成為汽車業的主角，汽車廠商則淪為外部技術的組裝者。合并和破產將成為汽車業的尋常事。產品的差異化將主要體現在續航里程和信息娛樂系統的功能。汽車的體積會變得越來越小?，F代化的通訊技術使合伙用車變得更加容易，信息技術將取代鈑金加工技術，成為最重要的競爭優勢。

Blueprint for the next generation

????The global auto analyst team at Morgan Stanley has done some crystal ball gazing and put together a number of scenarios for how the auto industry is going to look in 2022. Get ready for some surprises.

????The approach was strictly quantitative. The Morgan team ranked automakers on four criteria: technology, geographic footprint, strategic positioning, and financial strength. Then it plotted the rankings onto four scenarios it believes will determine the future of auto stocks 10 years hence. It is clever stuff that I first read about it in Neil Winton's Detroit News blog.

????In auto terms, 2022 is less than two product cycles and one powertrain generation away. Cars being developed today will still be on sale. Conventional wisdom about winners and losers may be wrong. VW and BMW score highly in most of Morgan's scenarios, despite the disarray in their home markets. China still won't be ready to follow Japan and Korea by making a big push into the U.S. market. And General Motors outpoints Ford in all four scenarios because of its strong presence in China and production of hybrid vehicles.

Scenario one: Dinosaurs dominate

????Established companies reign with legacy technologies like the internal combustion engine. Gas prices stay low, relegating EVs to niche status. 4G technology in cars becomes standard equipment. Smartphones with integrated infotainment systems make access possible while driving. Pent-up demand and new technologies drive U.S. new car sales to 18 million annually (vs. 14 million this year). Emerging markets, squeezed by high congestion and technology costs, must prioritize mass transit over personal transportation.

????Winners: Mostly German automakers, as buyers gravitate towards higher-content, high-prestige vehicles. GM trumps Ford, despite the latter's advantages in product turnover and powertrain technology.

????Losers: The Japanese. As German, U.S., and Korean manufacturers expand, Japan gets squeezed. Toyota is the only Japanese OEM with a top ranking, and even it finishes below GM. Fiat comes in below average but still higher than Peugeot-Citroen, thanks to its tie-up with Chrysler.

cenario two: The Facebook future

????Skyrocketing fuel costs make individual vehicles unaffordable. Huge government support comes for EVs. Battery makers take the driver's seat, reducing the role of manufacturers to assemblers of outside technology. Consolidation and bankruptcy are frequent outcomes. Product differentiation is based on range and infotainment features, and volumes are lower. Modern communication makes car sharing easier, and information technology replaces metal bending as the most important competitive advantage.