????老樣子。華爾街總是無(wú)視壞消息，直到一切為時(shí)已晚。隨后，恐慌情緒就會(huì)蔓延。此次“財(cái)政懸崖”可能也不例外。

????一項(xiàng)最新調(diào)查顯示，93%的華爾街一線策略師和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們?cè)谶M(jìn)行2013年的預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)仍然沒(méi)有考慮明年1月1日將顯現(xiàn)的加稅減支效應(yīng)。問(wèn)題是，這是因?yàn)槿A爾街是對(duì)阻止財(cái)政懸崖胸有成竹，還是僅僅因?yàn)闊o(wú)知？

????“顯然，很大一部分華爾街人士認(rèn)為，我們不會(huì)墜落財(cái)政懸崖，”“藍(lán)籌經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)”（Blue Chip Economic Indicators）的編輯蘭德爾?穆爾稱。“這種觀點(diǎn)可能比較樂(lè)觀，但他們就是這樣預(yù)測(cè)的。”在業(yè)界頗有名氣的華爾街策略師月度調(diào)查就是由Blue Chip Economic Indicators主持進(jìn)行的。

????確實(shí)，我們有理由相信能避免最糟糕的情形。日前，《財(cái)富》雜志（FORTUNE）報(bào)道，白宮早已提出一項(xiàng)計(jì)劃，將把一些減支措施延遲6個(gè)月實(shí)施。年入25萬(wàn)美元以下的個(gè)人加稅可能會(huì)再往后推一年。從近年的情況看，華盛頓可能會(huì)在最后一刻達(dá)成某種協(xié)議。

????但如果真的出現(xiàn)財(cái)政懸崖，華爾街可能毫無(wú)心理準(zhǔn)備。上上周，我寫了一篇文章，談到美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）首席美國(guó)策略師伊森?哈里斯認(rèn)為，財(cái)政懸崖的不確定性可能很快就會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成拖累，這種影響可能最快今年年底就會(huì)顯現(xiàn)。他說(shuō)，大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都錯(cuò)誤地認(rèn)為，直到明年之前，財(cái)政懸崖都不會(huì)影響美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。但即便是這種觀點(diǎn)，可能也還是過(guò)于樂(lè)觀。

????接受藍(lán)籌調(diào)查的52位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家中，絕大部分表示，他們?cè)陬A(yù)測(cè)時(shí)假定布什時(shí)期的部分或全部減稅措施將得以延期。調(diào)查沒(méi)有涉及減支問(wèn)題，但增稅是可能造成明年財(cái)政懸崖效應(yīng)的主因，占比高達(dá)80%。

????總的來(lái)說(shuō)，藍(lán)籌的調(diào)查顯示，華爾街策略師們預(yù)計(jì)2013年上半年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)剔除通脹將增長(zhǎng)2.3%。上月，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室（the Congressional Budget Office）表示，如果出現(xiàn)財(cái)政懸崖，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能陷入衰退，2013年上半年GDP下降1.3%。

????但這樣的預(yù)測(cè)可能仍屬樂(lè)觀。美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室預(yù)計(jì)，財(cái)政懸崖將導(dǎo)致明年上半年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩6.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。換言之，如果沒(méi)有財(cái)政懸崖，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)明年上半年可能增長(zhǎng)5.3%。相比2012年第一季度1.9%的增幅無(wú)疑是一大飛躍。但即便是Blue Chip調(diào)查中最樂(lè)觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也認(rèn)為明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速最高不會(huì)超過(guò)3.4%。

????假如華爾街的普遍預(yù)期是準(zhǔn)確的，明年上半年我們可能看到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，GDP下降4.3%。相比近年來(lái)的三次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，它可能比前兩次的情形還要糟糕，但比最近一次好一些。總之，如果真的出現(xiàn)財(cái)政懸崖，華爾街的預(yù)期會(huì)出現(xiàn)巨大的下行空間。市場(chǎng)也同樣如此。

????譯者：早稻米

????Here we go again. Wall Street has a history of not focusing on bad news until it's too late. Then panic ensues. We might be seeing that pattern again with the so-called fiscal cliff.

????A recent survey found that 93% of top Wall Street strategists and economists still aren't factoring into their estimates for next year the epic mix of tax increases and spending cuts that are expected to kick in January 1. The question is whether Wall Street is correctly handicapping the fiscal cliff, or just being ignorant.

????"It's clear that a large percentage of Wall Street doesn't expect us to go over the fiscal cliff," says Randell Moore, who is the editor of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, which runs the highly regarded monthly survey of Wall Street strategists. "That may be optimistic, but that's their forecast."

????Indeed, there is good reason to believe we will avoid the worst. Yesterday, FORTUNE reportedthat the White House is already floating a plan that would delay some of the spending cuts for six months. The tax increases for individuals making less than $250,000 could be put off for another year. And recent history suggests that some kind of last minute deal will be struck in Washington.

????But if the fiscal cliff does happen, it appears it will be a surprise to Wall Street. Last week, I wrote a story on how Ethan Harris, the top U.S. strategist at Bank of America, thinks the fiscal cliff, because of uncertainty, could start to be a drag on the economy as soon as later this year. Most economists, he said, are wrongly assuming the fiscal cliff won't impact the economy until next year. But even that doesn't appear to be the case.

????The vast majority of the 52 economists polled by Blue Chip newsletter said that their estimates assume that some or all of the Bush-era tax cuts would be extended. Blue Chip's editor Moore didn't ask about spending cuts. But tax increases will account for 80% of the impact of the fiscal cliff next year.

????In all, Wall Street strategists, according to the Blue Chip survey, believe the U.S. economy, before inflation, will grow 2.3% in the first half of 2013. Last month, the Congressional Budget Office said that if the fiscal cliff happens, it's likely that the economy will fall into recession, with GDP declining 1.3% in the first half of the year.

????Even that, though, might be optimistic. The CBO believes the fiscal cliff will cause the economy to slow by 6.6 percentage points in the first half of next year. That means the CBO is predicting that without the fiscal cliff the economy is likely to grow 5.3% in the first half of the year. That would be a huge jump from the first quarter of 2012, when the economy expanded 1.9%. Even the most exuberant economist in Blue Chip's survey thinks growth will top out at 3.4% next year.

????Assume Wall Street's consensus is accurate, and we could be looking at a recession in the first half of next year in which the GDP drops -4.3%, which would be worse than two of the last three recessions, though not as bad as the most recent. Bottom line: If we do go over the fiscal cliff, Wall Street's expectations have a long way to fall. The market may too.