????對于CDS市場的支持者而言，最好的問題是這些合約何時起過作用。AIG出售的CDS合約得以履約，全靠山姆大叔。你甚至都不能指望救助。當希臘“自愿”被歐洲其他國家救助時，該國國債減值50%。主導CDS市場的機構決定，CDS持有人不能獲得他們購買的保險。CDS不覆蓋自愿救助，就好像希臘還有其他選擇。這是這個千瘡百孔市場的另一個漏洞。

????而且，不清楚在多德-弗蘭克法案（Dodd-Frank）下這會不會改變。多德-弗蘭克法案規定，大多數CDS交易將必須經過一家清算所。但其他投資者保護意在消除股市和債市中的操縱和欺詐行為，CDS并不適用。

????美國公共電視網（PBS）《前線》欄目（Frontline）最近播出了四集金融危機紀錄片，在一開始就花了很多篇幅談論CDS市場及其源起。CDS合約最先由摩根大通創立。《前線》采訪了當年很多參與其中的摩根大通銀行家。似乎是說摩根大通能避開這場金融危機的很多雷區，是因為它知道自己在做什么。但當其他不那么負責和不那么聰明的銀行家開始進入這個市場，CDS開始變得危險。事實是如今摩根大通被CDS重傷，這可以作為金融“創新”章節再合適不過的結尾，也是為何CDS可以休矣的一個再好不過的例子。

????譯者：早稻米

????The best question for proponents of the CDS market is when have the contracts actually worked. The CDS contracts sold by AIG only paid out because of Uncle Sam. And you can't even count on bailouts. When Greece was "voluntarily" bailed out by the rest of Europe, the country's government bonds were written down by 50%. Yet, the group that governs the CDS market ruled that CDS holders couldn't collect on the insurance they had bought. Voluntary bailouts, as if Greece had a choice, were not covered by CDS. It was just another loophole in a Swiss cheese market.

????What's more, it's not clear any of this would change under Dodd-Frank. The new financial regulations state that most CDS trades will have to be run through a clearinghouse. But much of the other investor protections that are supposed to rid stock and bond markets of manipulation and fraud still don't apply when it comes to CDS.

????The recent four-part Frontline PBS documentary on the financial crisis starts with a long description of the CDS market and how it got started. CDS contracts were created at JPMorgan. Frontline interviewed a number of JPMorgan bankers who were there at the start. The implication was that JPMorgan, which sidestepped much of the losses of the financial crisis, knew what they were doing. But when other less responsible and intelligent bankers started getting into the market, that's when CDS got dangerous. The fact that it's now JPMorgan getting stung by the CDS market would serve as a fitting bookend for this chapter in financial "innovation," and a good example of why it should be closed.