????上周末希臘選舉的結(jié)果或許讓歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和華爾街稍稍松了口氣，但希臘和歐元區(qū)其他地區(qū)的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)問題依然盤桓不去。即便是贏得選舉的、所謂的“支持救助”的政黨建立起一個(gè)全國統(tǒng)一的政府，希臘仍然會(huì)面臨諸多重大的經(jīng)濟(jì)難題，使其難以履行在2,400億歐元救助方案中做出的承諾。

????因此，歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和希臘債券持有人應(yīng)當(dāng)做好心理準(zhǔn)備，不管在雅典掌權(quán)的新一屆政府是誰，它都需要在某種程度上重新協(xié)商救助條款。這么做并不意味著希臘將背棄它的所有承諾，或者說離開歐元區(qū)——沒人希望看到這樣的情形。歐盟（European Union）和國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）如果明智，就應(yīng)當(dāng)在償債安排方面給予希臘一定的靈活性。這樣，歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就能暫時(shí)把希臘放在一邊，集中全部精力防止西班牙、意大利和法國爆發(fā)更嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。

????上周末，中右翼新民主黨（New Democracy Party）在萬眾矚目的希臘大選中獲得了多數(shù)選票，得票率約30%。新民主黨不僅大敗傳統(tǒng)勁敵中左翼泛希社運(yùn)黨（Pasok，得票率僅12%），還以微弱優(yōu)勢戰(zhàn)勝了此次大選的主要對手——極左翼的左派政黨聯(lián)盟（Syriza，得票率約27%）。

????新民主黨在媒體的幫助下成功地為左派政黨聯(lián)盟扣上了反歐元、反救助和反歐盟的大帽子，一旦左派政黨聯(lián)盟當(dāng)選，必定會(huì)把希臘直接送入經(jīng)濟(jì)煉獄。雖然左派政黨聯(lián)盟屬于極左翼（在他們的集會(huì)中，榔頭和鐮刀隨處可見），但它其實(shí)并不像它頭上套的帽子所說的那樣激進(jìn)。比如，左派政黨聯(lián)盟從未鼓吹過脫離歐元或歐盟。它的確希望重新協(xié)商希臘救助條款，但從未聲稱要全盤推卸一切責(zé)任。

????左派政黨聯(lián)盟的民粹主張，幫助它從曾經(jīng)的默默無聞一躍成為希臘第二受歡迎的政黨。到上周末投票時(shí)，希臘所有的主要政黨都表示，他們將敦促對救助條款進(jìn)行一定的修改。雖然有些可能更激進(jìn)，但主流觀點(diǎn)就是現(xiàn)有形式的救助不起作用，需要對條款進(jìn)行調(diào)整。

????因此，千萬別上當(dāng)。如果新民主黨成功地組建了一家聯(lián)合政府，它必定希望重新協(xié)商救助條款。新民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人安東尼斯?薩馬拉斯在競選過程中曾表示，救助方案沒有給希臘留出足夠的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長空間。盡管他不太可能撕毀救助協(xié)議，完全另起爐灶，但我們可以確信，一定會(huì)進(jìn)行調(diào)整。

????The results of the Greek election over the weekend may have eurozone champions and Wall Street breathing a sigh of relief, but the political and economic troubles within Greece and the rest of the eurozone remain firmly in place. Even if the victorious so-called "pro-bailout" parties were to form a government of national unity, Greece will continue to experience major economic difficulties, which will prevent it from ever living up to the terms of its 240 billion euro bailout.

????As such, eurozone leaders and Greek bondholders should expect that any new government taking power in Athens will at some point need to renegotiate the terms of the bailout. Doing so doesn't mean Greece will renege on all its commitments or leave the euro – no one wants to see that. Therefore, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would be wise to grant Greece some leeway on their repayment schedule. That way, eurozone leaders can put Greece on the backburner and focus all their attention in preventing a far more dangerous economic crisis from taking root in Spain, Italy and France.

????The right-of-center New Democracy Party garnered the most votes in the much-anticipated Greek national elections this weekend, collecting around 30% of the vote. New Democracy not only trounced its traditional archenemy, the left-of-center Pasok party, which received just 12% of the vote, but also edged out its main rival this election cycle, the far-left Syriza party, which took home around 27% of the vote.

????New Democracy, with help from the media, successfully labeled Syriza as the anti-euro, anti-bailout and anti-EU party, which, if elected, would send Greece straight to economic purgatory. While Syriza was far left (hammer and sickles were a common sight at their rallies), it wasn't as radical as it had been labeled. For example, Syriza never advocated leaving the euro or leaving the EU. It did want to renegotiate the terms of the Greek bailout, but didn't advocate totally walking away from all the country's commitments.

????The popularity of Syriza's message helped propel it from virtual obscurity to the second most popular political party in the country. By the time voting came around this weekend, all the major parties said they would push for some sort of alteration in the bailout terms. While some were more radical than the others, the key was that it had become a mainstream view that the bailout wasn't working in its current form and that there needed to be a change in the terms.

????So don't be fooled, New Democracy will certainly want to renegotiate the terms of the bailout if it is successful in forming a coalition government. Antonis Samaras, the New Democracy leader, argued throughout the campaign that the bailout doesn't allow enough room for Greece to grow its economy. While he is unlikely to rip up the bailout contract and start from scratch, you can bet there will be some changes.