????金融危機或許已經(jīng)結(jié)束，但信貸緊縮有沒有結(jié)束還不明朗。

????上周四，美國聯(lián)邦存款保險公司（FDIC）宣布，銀行業(yè)利潤創(chuàng)近五年新高。今年前三個月，美國銀行業(yè)實現(xiàn)利潤353億美元，相比上年同期增長66億美元，幾乎是兩年前同期的翻番。不過，利潤仍未回到危機前水平，比2007年第二季度仍低了14億美元。正是從2007年第二季度左右，次貸市場開始崩潰。

????顯然，美國銀行業(yè)正在繼續(xù)從金融危機中復(fù)蘇。FDIC指出，存在破產(chǎn)風(fēng)險的銀行數(shù)量已降至772家。這是該數(shù)字連續(xù)第五個季度下降。FDIC的“問題銀行”名單曾一度逼近1,000家。而且，問題貸款總量也在下降。FDIC表示，第一季度銀行業(yè)注銷貸款210億美元，為四年來最低。FDIC衡量銀行資本金的一項關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)——銀行擁有的可以覆蓋不良貸款和其他損失的資金——則創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。這是一個好消息，但問題也隨之而來：為何它沒有超過危機前的年份，當(dāng)時我們都相信銀行業(yè)是健康的。

????銀行業(yè)的穩(wěn)定對于美國經(jīng)濟顯然是個利好因素。當(dāng)策略師們歷數(shù)為何他們認(rèn)為美國股市將上漲的各項因素時，總會談到這一點。但銀行利潤只是諸多非負(fù)面因素之一。銀行業(yè)利潤對你我，對經(jīng)濟如此重要的唯一原因是它會鼓勵更多放貸，相應(yīng)地創(chuàng)造更多就業(yè)并推高房價。我們還沒有看到這一點，至少沒有持續(xù)地呈現(xiàn)。幾周前，一季度貸款縮減。FDIC的最新報告印證了這一點。下降最多的是信用卡貸款和住房貸款。這意味著銀行業(yè)仍是抑制樓市復(fù)蘇的因素之一。我們還沒有走出困境。

????譯者：早稻米

????The financial crisis could be over, but it's not clear the credit crunch is.

????On Thursday, the FDIC said that bank profits were the highest they have been in nearly five years. U.S. banks earned $35.3 billion in the first three months of the year. That was up $6.6 billion from the same quarter a year ago, and nearly double what they earned two years ago. Still, bottom lines have yet to return to pre-crisis levels. Banks earned $1.4 billion less than they did in the second quarter of 2007, which is about the time the sub-prime mortgage market began to bust.

????What's clear is that banks are continuing to heal from the financial crisis. The number of banks that the FDIC says are in jeopardy of failing dropped to 772. That was the fifth quarter in a row that number has dropped. The FDIC's "problem bank" list once neared 1,000. What's more problem loans at all banks fell as well. The FDIC said banks charged off $21 billion in the first quarter, which the lowest in four years. A key FDIC measure of bank capital - the amount of money banks have to cover bad loans and other losses - reached an all-time high, which is welcome news but also begs the question of why it wasn't higher in the years before the crisis, when we all believed banks were healthy.

????Stability of the banking sector is clearly a positive for the U.S. economy. It's always one of the talking points you hear from strategists when they reel off the reasons they think stocks are headed higher. But bank profits alone are really only one of those things that are not a negative. The only reason banks profits really matter to you and me and the economy is that it should lead to more lending, and in turn more jobs and higher housing prices. We haven't actually seen that yet, at least not consistently. As I wrote a few weeks ago, lending shrunk in the first quarter. The FDIC report confirms that fact. The biggest drops were in credit card lending and home loans. That means banks remain a headwind for the housing market rebound. We're still not out of the woods yet.