?????克萊采爾稱：“恰恰相反，最大的危險(xiǎn)在于，消費(fèi)者可能擔(dān)心石油供應(yīng)將會(huì)中斷，于是為了自保，紛紛大量囤積。而這種囤積行為，將導(dǎo)致石油價(jià)格在大事件發(fā)生之前便開(kāi)始暴漲。”

????如果發(fā)生那種情況，即便需求相對(duì)較小幅度的增長(zhǎng)，也會(huì)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格激增，而原因還是由于產(chǎn)能不足。但反過(guò)來(lái)也同樣成立：即使產(chǎn)能有相對(duì)較小幅度的增長(zhǎng)，也會(huì)為市場(chǎng)提供緩沖。而解決方案便是鼓勵(lì)產(chǎn)油國(guó)加大開(kāi)采力度，其中最佳目標(biāo)便是美國(guó)。克萊采爾表示：“2008年，如果產(chǎn)能額外增加50萬(wàn)桶，油價(jià)也就不會(huì)有如此大幅度的上漲。”

????目前，市場(chǎng)的不穩(wěn)定性已經(jīng)達(dá)到了極限，而在石油儲(chǔ)量最豐富的地區(qū)，每日騷亂不斷。面臨這些威脅，只有幫助提高美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量才是關(guān)鍵。不論說(shuō)的多么好聽(tīng)，其實(shí)在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上的道理非常簡(jiǎn)單：增加石油產(chǎn)量對(duì)美國(guó)意義重大。

????譯者：阿龍/汪皓

????"On the contrary," says Kreutzer, "the big danger is that customers will that fear oil supplies will be cut off, so they start storing big volumes of oil to protect themselves. All that buying causes an explosion in prices well before any big event happens."

????In that case, even a relatively small jump in demand could cause a sharp spike in prices––once again, because capacity is so tight. But the reverse is also true: A relatively small amount of new capacity could provide a crucial shock absorber. The solution is to encourage the producers to sink more wells and open new fields, and the best candidate is the U.S. "Even the addition of 500,000 barrels of extra capacity in 2008 would have prevented the price from spiking nearly so much," says Kreutzer.

????Hence, measures that help raise output in the U.S. are a crucial safeguard against the threat we're facing today, a volatile mix of a market stretched to the limit, and the daily reports of turmoil in the most oil-rich regions on the planet. The rhetoric is dizzying, but the economics are clear: More drilling makes sense for America.