???導(dǎo)致這一現(xiàn)象的原因之一是英國石油公司（British Petroleum）的漏油事件導(dǎo)致墨西哥灣產(chǎn)量減少，此外，俄羅斯、委內(nèi)瑞拉和墨西哥等主要產(chǎn)油國對私營石油公司的敵意，致使他們轉(zhuǎn)而依靠效率低下的國內(nèi)石油公司?；卜Q：“大型石油公司很難找到一個不必?fù)?dān)心被沒收的投資目標(biāo)?！?/p>

????美國石油儲量豐富，而且生產(chǎn)成本不僅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于目前105美元的全球石油價(jià)格，也低于全球市場正常情況下每桶70至80美元的價(jià)格。因此，美國擴(kuò)大石油產(chǎn)量，必然會降低全球石油價(jià)格。問題就在于降低的幅度。如果美國以35至40美元的成本新開采頁巖油，便可以滿足全球總體需求，無需開采最為昂貴的含油砂（80美元）。由于其成本優(yōu)勢，所有新開采的頁巖油的價(jià)格甚至?xí)蔀閷?shí)現(xiàn)市場供需平衡的最高價(jià)格，從而替代從墨西哥灣以55美元成本開采的原油。

????而如果需求繼續(xù)增加，則美國額外擴(kuò)大的產(chǎn)量可以幫助全球石油產(chǎn)量與需求保持同步，并且將價(jià)格穩(wěn)定在70或80美元的水平。如果沒有美國增加的國內(nèi)石油供應(yīng)，該價(jià)格可能會繼續(xù)飆升。

增加產(chǎn)量，平抑價(jià)格

????為了大幅降低全球石油價(jià)格，美國到底需要新生產(chǎn)多少石油？答案是很多。據(jù)克萊采爾計(jì)算，全球產(chǎn)量每增加1%，便可使全球石油價(jià)格下降2%至3%。目前，美國原油產(chǎn)量為每天600萬桶。那么，如果美國每天額外生產(chǎn)200萬桶，會有什么效果？這意味著，全球石油供給增加了2.3%，在其他方面保持不變的情況下，全球石油價(jià)格將下降4.6%至6.9%。按照目前的價(jià)格計(jì)算，也就是每桶下降4.70美元至7.10美元。

????但美國是否能夠做到如此規(guī)模的增長？目前，美國主要頁巖油產(chǎn)地，包括北達(dá)科他州的巴肯頁巖區(qū)、德克薩斯州的伊格福特頁巖區(qū)，以及賓夕法尼亞州的馬塞盧斯頁巖區(qū)，每天產(chǎn)量約為40萬桶。能源咨詢公司Purvin & Gertz的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，截至2020年，上述地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量可達(dá)到130萬桶。要想達(dá)到200萬桶的產(chǎn)量，監(jiān)管政策需要向鼓勵開采的方向傾斜。

????例如，美國政府根據(jù)“外大陸架油氣開發(fā)租賃項(xiàng)目”（Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program），撤銷了阿拉斯加州楚科奇海的鉆探許可，并在太平洋海岸設(shè)立禁止鉆探區(qū)。這兩個地區(qū)的儲量約為400億桶。所以，美國國內(nèi)石油產(chǎn)量每天增加100萬桶以上完全可行：自2007年以來，美國原油產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)增加了20%，約每天100萬桶。歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)告訴我們，高價(jià)格最終將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量增加，并勘探出新產(chǎn)區(qū)，其規(guī)模將超出所有預(yù)測。

????就目前而言，潛在的危險(xiǎn)是，價(jià)格可能在如今已經(jīng)高企的基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)飆升。近期或者在不遠(yuǎn)的未來，便可能會上演危險(xiǎn)的一幕。由于產(chǎn)能不足，短期內(nèi)購買行為的激增將會導(dǎo)致油價(jià)大幅上漲。而這種激增不一定要等到中東戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)，供應(yīng)突然中斷。

????Among the reasons were the shrinkage in production in the Gulf of Mexico following the British Petroleum (BP) disaster, and the hostility of big players such as Russia, Venezuela and Mexico towards private oil companies, leaving those nations to rely on inefficient domestic producers. "It became difficult for big oil companies to find places to invest where they didn't have to fear they'd be expropriated," says Kilian.

????The U.S. is loaded with oil reserves that can be produced far below both the current world price of $105 as well as what would be the world price in a normal market, between $70 and $80. Any extra oil the U.S. produces, then, must lower the world price. The question, as we'll see, is by how much. If the U.S. pumps lots of new supplies at $35 to $40, the cost of shale oil, total world demand could be satisfied without the priciest oil sands production at $80. All the new oil might even make the "most expensive barrel to clear the market" crude that scooped from the Gulf of Mexico at $55.

????Or, if demand keeps rising, the extra U.S. production could help total world output keep pace. That could hold prices at, say, the $70 or $80 level, whereas they might rise far higher in the absence of a surge in U.S. supplies.

More oil, lower prices

????So how much new oil must the U.S. must produce to substantially lower the world price? A lot. By Kreutzer's reckoning, an additional 1% increase in world output lowers the global price by between 2% and 3%. Today, the U.S. makes produces 6 million barrels a day of crude. So what would happen if the U.S. were able to produce an additional 2 million barrels a day? That's 2.3% of world supply, so that prices –– all other things being equal –– would fall between 4.6% and 6.9%. We're talking about a decline of between $4.70 to $7.10 a barrel, based on today's prices.

????But is an increase on that scale conceivable? Today, shale oil flowing from such booming fields as Bakken in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas and Marcellus in Pennsylvania are pumping around 400,000 barrels per day. According to a study by energy consulting firm Purvin & Gertz, that number could rise to 1.3 million barrels by 2020. Reaching the 2 million mark would require a shift in regulatory policy in favor of far more drilling.

????For example, the administration has rescinded drilling permits for the Chukchi Sea in Alaska and left the Atlantic and Pacific coasts off-limits to production under the Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program. Those two areas boast reserves equivalent to almost 40 billion barrels. Getting an extra 1 million or more barrels a day from domestic sources is indeed feasible: Since 2007, crude production has already jumped about 1 million barrels per day, or 20%. History tells us that high prices eventually create new production, and new discoveries, on a scale that confounds practically all the forecasts.

????Right now, the looming danger is that prices will soar far above today's already elevated levels. A perilous scenario is poised to play out, either soon or in future versions. Since capacity is extremely tight, any sudden surge in buying will enormously inflate prices. It doesn't have to be a sudden shutdown in supply, triggered by a war in the Middle East.