????美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬稱，大幅提高美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量，在平抑油價(jià)和刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方面的作用微不足道。但考慮到目前每加侖汽油價(jià)格已經(jīng)超過4美元，而且中東地區(qū)的騷亂導(dǎo)致石油產(chǎn)量隨時(shí)被壓縮的擔(dān)憂情緒蔓延，因此，人們有必要檢視一下是否真的像政府聲稱的那樣，大規(guī)模擴(kuò)大石油開采的作用不大。

????實(shí)際上，挖掘美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)油井的潛力，可以使未來的美國(guó)更加富足，這主要表現(xiàn)在如下三個(gè)方面：首先，雖然奧巴馬發(fā)表了相反的言論，但實(shí)際上，通過開采儲(chǔ)量巨大的頁巖油，額外增加的產(chǎn)量足以使全球石油單價(jià)降低幾美元；其次，增加產(chǎn)能可以緩沖供給沖擊，進(jìn)而提供一種巨災(zāi)保險(xiǎn)政策。在目前供應(yīng)緊張、脆弱的市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)下，供給沖擊的破壞性尤為嚴(yán)重；第三，擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)量意味著減少美國(guó)的石油進(jìn)口，進(jìn)而有利于改善美國(guó)的貿(mào)易平衡。減少“凈進(jìn)口”將會(huì)改善美國(guó)的發(fā)展之路，這一點(diǎn)通過計(jì)算GDP數(shù)據(jù)就可以看出。

如何實(shí)現(xiàn)？

????要想充分利用石油產(chǎn)區(qū)的優(yōu)勢(shì)，關(guān)鍵是要理解全球石油價(jià)格的形成機(jī)制。在正常情況下，全球石油價(jià)格相當(dāng)于消費(fèi)者愿意購買的最后一桶最高價(jià)石油的成本。然而現(xiàn)在處于非常時(shí)期。目前，所謂最后一桶石油可能開采自加拿大的含油砂，成本在70至80美元之間。但目前的石油價(jià)格為何會(huì)達(dá)到105美元左右？原因就在于全球的額外產(chǎn)能微乎其微。

????美國(guó)傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)（Heritage Foundation）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家戴維?克萊采爾稱：“據(jù)我估計(jì)，額外產(chǎn)能僅有約每天50萬桶。這相當(dāng)于2008年石油價(jià)格飆升時(shí)的水平。”

????產(chǎn)能緊張意味著幾乎所有油井均在全力開采。許多產(chǎn)油國(guó)本應(yīng)在短期內(nèi)有所反應(yīng)，以增加石油產(chǎn)量；但是恰恰相反，他們可能選擇觀望。以沙特阿拉伯為例，為重新啟用舊的油井并升級(jí)舊的油田設(shè)施，它需要投入大量資金，但現(xiàn)在卻打算放棄投資，主要原因是擔(dān)心目前高企的油價(jià)只是暫時(shí)現(xiàn)象。

????結(jié)果，由于每天進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)的石油數(shù)量有限，迫切需要石油的消費(fèi)者不得不競(jìng)購石油。實(shí)際上，由于汽油緊缺，倫敦的汽車司機(jī)出價(jià)就會(huì)高于芝加哥的司機(jī)，而且芝加哥的司機(jī)可以乘坐火車來減少用油。這種競(jìng)購大幅推高了石油價(jià)格，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過制造商鉆探石油的成本，造成了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上所謂的“稀有溢價(jià)”。而這也正是埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）等石油大鱷能夠賺得缽滿盆滿的原因。

????市場(chǎng)是怎么變成這樣的？從2003年至2008年，由于中國(guó)和印度的快速工業(yè)化，石油需求激增。密歇根大學(xué)（University of Michigan）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授盧茨?基利安表示：“為了滿足需求的上漲，石油儲(chǔ)量豐富的國(guó)家均擴(kuò)大了產(chǎn)量，并一直持續(xù)到2006年左右。之后，產(chǎn)量基本持平，雖然在經(jīng)濟(jì)開始復(fù)蘇后，石油需求又開始增加，但產(chǎn)量卻未能保持增長(zhǎng)。”

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????President Obama argues that a campaign to substantially raise domestic crude oil production would provide miniscule benefits in lower prices and enhanced growth. With gasoline at over $4 a gallon in some places, and turmoil in the Middle East igniting fears that a big squeeze could strike at any time, it's important to examine whether the economic argument for a major expansion in drilling is really as weak as the administration claims.

????In fact, tapping the potential gusher within reach would enrich our future in three ways. First, despite the President's declarations to the contrary, the extra output could be large enough to lower world prices by several dollars a barrel, chiefly through exploiting the enormous promise of shale oil. Second, adding to capacity would provide a sort of catastrophic insurance policy by cushioning shocks in supply that are especially damaging in the kind of tight, vulnerable market we're experiencing today. And third, raising production means lowering our oil imports, and hence greatly improving our balance of trade. By pure GDP math, shrinking "net imports" would lift America's growth trajectory.

How we got here

????To appreciate the advantages of prizing the oil patch, it's crucial to understand how global oil prices are established. In normal times, the world price equals the cost of the last, most expensive barrel that consumers are willing to buy. Times are anything but normal. Right now, that barrel is probably being produced from Canadian tar sands at between $70 and $80. So why is the prevailing price around $105? The reason is that worldwide excess production capacity is extremely tight.

????"I estimate that extra capacity is only around half-a-million barrels a day," says David Kreutzer, an economist at the Heritage Foundation. "That's about the same level we saw when prices spiked in 2008."

????Tight capacity means that almost all wells are pumping full tilt. To bring on more oil, producers that could react quickly may choose not to. A country like Saudi Arabia would need to spend lots of money uncapping old wells, and upgrading old fields, investments it's now unwilling to make, in part from fears these high prices are temporary.

????That leaves oil-hungry consumers to bid for the fixed number of barrels entering the market each day. In effect, someone commuting by car in London outbids a Chicago driver for scarce gasoline, and the Chicago driver saves by taking the train. That bidding is now driving the price far above the cost for the producer drilling the world's most expensive oil, creating what's called in economics a "scarcity premium." And it's why Exxon Mobil (XOM) and other oil giants are generating such huge profits.

????How did the market reach this bind? From 2003 to 2008, demand for oil rose sharply, driven primarily by rapid industrialization in China and India. "The oil rich nations matched the rise in demand by producing more until around 2006," says Lutz Kilian, professor of economics at the University of Michigan. "Then, production went flat, and even when demand started increasing again after the recovery began, production didn't keep up."