????在他攻擊敵人之前，奧朗德有必要在社會政策方面做出一些政績，這樣可能會在其他的歐元區引發波動效應。他表示會提高最低薪資標準，取消原定計劃內的支出削減，重新雇用數萬名政府職員，并將退休年齡由62歲調回60歲。他還希望增加政府預算來資助大型基礎設施項目——所有這些都是為了刺激經濟增長。

????為了給這些政策買單，奧朗德打算在法國玩命征稅。年收入超過100萬歐元的人群所得稅稅率將由45%上升至驚人的75%。隨后他將目標瞄準了銀行，將其稅賦提高15%。此外，他希望推行金融交易稅，它將使法國已然疲軟的金融領域雪上加霜。金融交易稅將沖擊頻率較高的貿易，對于一些在法國運營的對沖基金和銀行來說，這一主要利潤來源將就此消失。該稅也將降低法國經紀及中介公司的交易競爭力。

????為了避免金融公司大規模出逃，奧朗德很有可能會游說在全歐范圍內推行這一稅收政策。盡管英國在過去曾經成功地扼殺了征收交易稅的企圖，但是奧朗德不會像其前任那樣輕易放棄。法國可以通過其他一系列政治問題來迫使英國就范。鑒于奧巴馬政府認為大西洋兩岸的金融法規和限制應保持一致，因此華爾街將對此保持密切關注。真正令人擔心的是，法國的金融交易稅有可能最終在全世界范圍內得以推行。

????社會黨領導下的法國也有可能影響新國際銀行業標準的實施，即眾所周知的巴塞爾協議Ⅲ（Basel III）。在布魯塞爾，歐洲財政大臣們目前正在討論如何聯合實施新的法規，并藉此迫使銀行在其負債表中保留更多的資金。奧朗德所領導的法國很有可能推高利率，危及歐洲銀行的借貸能力。歐洲各國在巴塞爾協議Ⅲ框架下所制定的每一個協議都將對最終成為國際標準的利率產生巨大的影響。華爾街一向偏愛低利率，這樣銀行就能握有更多的現金用于投資。高利率將進一步制約銀行的借貸業務——這不僅不利于銀行，也不利于美國經濟。

????奧朗德的金融戰爭可能只會帶來更為嚴格的法規或高利率，但真正令人擔心的是他可能不會就此收手。目前維系歐元完整靠的是歐洲央行的廉價資金，但他卻在周三的辯論當中對此表達了不滿。他諷刺說：“銀行以1%的利率從歐洲央行拿貸款，然后以6%的利率放貸。我強烈反對。”

????很多關注這場辯論的人可能都沒太在意這句無關緊要的聲明，但可能已經為多個歐洲國家敲響了警鐘。因為歐洲央行廉價資金的流通是目前維系歐盟不致全面解體的唯一救命稻草。歐洲央行最終印刷的這些鈔票廉價地流入了各國銀行，而銀行得以藉此購買主權債務。這也使得歐洲邊緣國家能繼續運轉下去，從而避免違約以及歐元區的崩潰。它也使得銀行有能力向企業和消費者發放更多的貸款，增加他們在經濟中的支出。銀行所賺取的差價也有利于銀行來填補負債表上的巨額漏洞，繼而走出危機的陰影。

????Before he goes after his enemy, Hollande will need to make good on some socialist policies, which could have spillover effects on the rest of the eurozone. He says he will raise the minimum wage, cancel scheduled spending cuts, hire back thousands of government workers and roll back the retirement age from 62 to 60. He also wants to increase government spending to sponsor large infrastructure projects - all in a bid to spur economic growth.

????To pay for this, Hollande wants to tax France to death. Anyone making more than a million euros a year will see their tax rate go from 45% to a mind-blowing 75%. He'll then stick it to the banks, raising their taxes by 15%. In addition, he wants to implement a financial transaction tax, which could have dire consequences on France's already weak financial sector. The tax would hurt high frequency trading, wiping out a major profit center for some hedge funds and banks that operate in France. It would also hurt the competitiveness of France's broker-dealers in executing transactions.

????To avoid financial firms from leaving in droves, Hollande will most likely push for the tax to be implemented across the European Union. While the UK has successfully blocked attempts to implement a transaction tax in the past, Hollande isn't likely to give up as easily as his predecessors. The French could back the UK into a corner on a number of other political issues to get its way on this one. Wall Street will be watching closely given the Obama administration's view that financial rules and restrictions should be harmonized on both sides of the Atlantic. The fear is that France's financial transaction tax could eventually go worldwide.

????Socialist France could also impact the implementation of new international banking standards, known as Basel III. In Brussels, European finance ministers are currently discussing how they will collectively implement new rules that will eventually force banks to hold more capital on their balance sheet. A France run by Hollande will most likely push for a higher rate, jeopardizing the lending capacity of European banks. Any agreement made on Basel III by the Europeans will have a big influence on the rate that ends up being the international standard. Wall Street is in favor of a low rate so banks can invest more of its cash. A high rate would further restrict bank lending – hurting not only bank profits, but also the U.S. economy.

????Hollande's war on finance could be limited to tougher regulations or higher taxes, but there is a real fear that he could take it too far. During Wednesday's debate he noted his discontent with the one thing that is holding the euro together– cheap funding from the European Central Bank. He scornfully said, "banks get a loan from ECB at 1% and lend at 6%. I refuse."

????This seemingly innocuous statement went largely unnoticed by many watching the debate, but it probably set off alarm bells in several European capitals. That's because this pass through of cheap funding from the ECB is the only thing keeping Europe from totally falling apart. The money the ECB is essentially printing is being lent to banks on the cheap so they can turn around and buy sovereign debt. This allows European countries on the periphery to continue funding themselves, avoiding default and a eurozone meltdown. It also allows the banks to lend more to businesses and consumers in order to increase spending in the economy. The spread the banks earn helps to fill the massive holes in their balance sheet so that they can recover from the crisis.