????法國總統大選著實讓華爾街和國際市場坐立不安，這種擔心并不是沒有道理的。決定社會黨領袖弗朗索瓦?奧朗德能否登上法國頭把交椅的第二輪投票于本周日舉行，這一選舉也為國際經濟帶來了一絲緊張氣氛，然而眼下，國際經濟急需一位意志堅定的領袖。

????但是除了緊張氣氛之外，市場對于即將進駐愛麗舍宮的新一屆社會黨政府感到擔憂，我們有充分的理由表明這種擔憂并不是多余的。如果奧朗德當選，他必然將在法國和歐洲大陸推行更為嚴格的金融法規，而且與前任不同的是，他很有可能會貫徹到底。這一點將會對華爾街和倫敦金融城造成影響，最終限制它們在歐洲大陸、甚至有可能在本國的業務模式。而且如果推行力度過大，這些法規可能會擾亂法國與歐洲央行（the European Central Bank）之間精心策劃的有關防止歐元崩潰的協議，從而引發一系列連鎖反應，在世界范圍內導致嚴重的經濟后果。

????上周三法國現任總統尼古拉斯?薩科齊和他的挑戰者弗朗索瓦?奧朗德之間進行了一場萬眾矚目的電視辯論，結果比預計的更為不堪。辯論持續了長達三個多小時，兩位候選人你來我往，談論了方方面面的問題，從核政策一直談到誰對伊斯蘭的態度最為強硬，其間不乏相互之間的謾罵和羞辱。盡管兩人在辯論中并沒有提出什么驚天動地的觀點，但是辯論的確鞏固了奧朗德的領先優勢。

????目前，法國經濟局勢一片混亂，也難怪選民們希望更換領導人。盡管在意識形態上存在差異，但由于金融危機不斷深化，全歐的選民和國會都不約而同地將現任政府趕下了臺。德國是唯一一個特例，但僅僅是因為大選按計劃要等到明年才開始。包括西班牙、愛爾蘭、意大利、英國、葡萄牙、希臘還有最近的荷蘭在內，多國政府都在過去一兩年之內相繼倒臺。

????在歐元區，領導層的變動基本上一向被市場視為利好消息——因為新的領導層往往力求變革，以幫助解決看似無休無止的歐洲主權債務危機。因此法國領導層的變動也會帶來同樣的效果，是嗎？

????答案是否定的。奧朗德曾經說過，一旦掌權，他將徹底改革，而且不會追隨德國或者其他國家的腳步。這也就意味著一切都可能成為改革目標，包括薩科齊與歐盟成員為應對主權債務危機精心策劃的協議。他對華爾街和倫敦并不感興趣，甚至曾公開批評它們是導致金融危機的元兇。奧朗德1月份曾經聲稱：“我的敵人不是其他競選人，它并不是人，也沒有面孔，它就是金融界。”很明顯，他手中揮舞著板斧，說不定他已經擁有了斬斷自己雙手的覺悟。

????France's presidential election has Wall Street and the global markets worried – and for good reason. The election of Socialist party leader Francois Hollande to France's top job this coming Sunday would introduce an air of instability into the global economy at a time when it desperately needs a steady hand.

????But beyond the instability, there are concrete reasons why the markets should be concerned with a new Socialist-led government in the Elysee Palace. If elected, Hollande will inevitably push for tougher financial regulation in France and on the continent, and unlike his predecessor, will most likely see them through. This will invariably impact and eventually restrict the way Wall Street and the City of London does business, both on the continent and, quite possibly, at home. And if he pushes hard enough, he could disturb the carefully crafted agreement with the European Central Bank that is keeping the euro on life support, setting off a chain of events that could have dire worldwide economic consequences.

????Wednesday's much hyped television debate between incumbent President Nicholas Sarkozy and his challenger, Francois Hollande, was nastier than expected. The candidates barked insults and spoke over one another for over three hours on everything from nuclear policy to who would be the toughest on Islam. While the debate did not provide any earth-shattering revelations from either man, it did solidify Hollande's commanding lead over Sarkozy.

????It is no surprise French voters would be looking for a change in leadership given all the economic turmoil in the country. Voters and parliaments across Europe have pushed incumbent governments out of power, regardless of ideology, as the financial crisis has deepened. Germany is the only exception, but only because its elections are scheduled next year. Governments in Spain, Ireland, Italy, the UK, Portugal, Greece and most recently, the Netherlands, have all fallen in the last year or two.

????In the eurozone, the changes in leadership have been viewed as mostly positive by the markets -- they have brought with them the tough changes needed to help stabilize the seemingly endless European sovereign debt crisis. A change in leadership in France should therefore be viewed the same way, right?

????No. Hollande has said that he would shake things up once he gets in power and would not toe the line with Germany or anyone else. That means anything is on the table, including agreements Sarkozy had carefully worked out with his European counterparts in taming the sovereign debt crisis. In addition, Hollande seems bent on really sticking it to the banks. He is no fan of the City of London and Wall Street and has openly criticized them for the role they played in the financial crisis. "My enemy is not another candidate, it is not a person, it has no face, it is the world of finance," Mr. Hollande said in January. He clearly has an axe to grind, but he may be getting ready to slice off his own hands.