????華爾街的商業模式破產之后，它的用人策略或許也已經不保。

????兩年來，華爾街新招了數千位銀行家，但不久的將來，可能會砍掉同等數量的職位，甚至更多。據華爾街招聘顧問和獵頭們稱，僅紐約一地，銀行業證券部門就可能裁員近2.1萬人。全球的裁員人數會更多。據獵頭們稱，銀行巨頭們正在敲定減員計劃，裁員可能很快就會啟動。

????最新一輪裁員的規模堪比不到四年前的金融危機，當時華爾街裁員2.8萬人。但那一輪裁員要算上破產的貝爾斯登（Bear Stearns）和雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers），以及自大蕭條以來金融市場所遇到的最嚴重的危機。相比之下，今年股市在上漲，上周銀行業剛剛公布了第一季度的財報，情況好于預期。而且，在大公司裁員的同時，很多中小投資銀行卻在招兵買馬。因此，華爾街總體的就業情況可能不會像金融危機后下降得那么嚴重。

????“招聘還在進行，只是不是大型銀行在招人，”華爾街一位頂級獵頭、金融獵頭公司Whitney Partners的負責人蓋瑞?戈登斯坦說。

????雖然如此，招聘顧問們表示，華爾街大公司們發現現有員工人數還是超出了實際需要。上周，波士頓咨詢集團（The Boston Consulting Group）發布的報告預測，“短期”內銀行業將裁員12%。獵頭們稱，這些數字聽起來和他們從大公司聽到的情況差不多。

????“可能這個預測依然偏低，”Odgers Berndtson的資深金融業獵頭史蒂夫?波特稱。波特說，交易有限，華爾街公司除了要與同行爭搶，如今還要與客戶競爭。越來越多的大公司開始自聘投行人士，節省華爾街費用，“大幅裁員幾乎是肯定的。”

????華爾街公司最大的問題可能是上次裁員沒有完全到位。并購活動沒有如期回升，導致很多高薪銀行家無事可做。新的監管條例顯著限制了銀行的交易業務。另外，還有債券評級機構穆迪（Moody's）和標準普爾（Standard & Poors）聲稱可能很快會下調金融公司的債券評級，同樣也給銀行業帶來了壓力。美國五大銀行估計，評級下調可能需增加220億美元的成本或抵押品。

????“（銀行在）成本方面沒有采取足夠措施來應對營收下降，”波士頓咨詢集團的合伙人、參與最新報告撰寫的山迪?錢德拉謝卡爾表示。而且，不像其他輪次的裁員，錢德拉謝卡爾表示，這次丟工作的很多人可能是高級銀行家。留下來的人，今年的薪酬也可能下降。總的來說，波士頓咨詢集團預計華爾街薪酬支出將減少高達30%。“銀行業需要重新考慮，到底是否需要所有這些管理層級。”

????Perhaps the only thing more broken than Wall Street's business model is its staffing strategy.

????After adding thousands bankers in the past two years, financial firms again appear to be on the verge of cutting that many positions and then some. Consultants and Wall Street recruiters say banks could eliminate nearly 21,000 jobs from their securities divisions in New York alone. Worldwide cuts could be even larger. Recruiters say big banks are in the process of finalizing their downsizing plans, and that layoffs could start soon.

????The latest round of job cuts could rival those that happened during the financial crisis. Back then, which was less than four years ago, Wall Street eliminated 28,000 positions. But that round of downsizing included the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and the biggest crisis in the financial markets since the Great Depression. By comparison, the stock market is up this year, and just last week banks reported better than expected earnings for the first quarter. What's more, at the same time large firms are firing, many smaller investment banks have been staffing up. As a result, overall employment on Wall Street might not drop as much as it did after the financial crisis.

????"Hiring is going on, it's just not by the big banks," says a top Wall Street recruiter Gary Goldstein, who runs Whitney Partners.

????Nonetheless, consultants say the big Wall Street firms are coming to the conclusion that they have more workers than they need. Last week, The Boston Consulting Group released a report that predicted banks would eliminate 12% of their workforce in the "short-term." Recruiters say those numbers sound similar to what they are hearing from the large firms.

????"The estimate is possibly low," says veteran financial industry recruiter Steve Potter at Odgers Berndtson. Potter says not only are the firms competing for few deals, but with their clients. More and more large firms are adding investment bankers to their staffs to save on Wall Street fees. "Large layoffs are a virtual certainty."

????Perhaps the biggest problem at the banks is that they didn't cut enough jobs last time around. Mergers and acquisition activity also has not bounced back as expected, leaving a number of high paid bankers idle. What's more, new regulations appear to already be significantly curtailing the banks' trading operations. Also weighing on the banks is the fact that debt watchers Moody's and Standard & Poors say they are likely to soon downgrade the bond ratings of the firms. The nation's five largest banks have estimated that the downgrades could cost them $22 billion in additional costs or collateral requirements.

????"There hasn't been enough action on the cost front to keep up with the revenue short falls," says Chandy Chandrashekhar, a partner at BCG who helped to produce the recent report. And unlike other rounds of layoffs, Chandrashekhar says many of the people who lose their jobs this time around could be senior bankers. For those that remain, compensation is likely to be down this year as well. In all, BCG expects Wall Street compensation expenditures to drop by as much as 30%. "Banks need to revisit whether they need all of their management layers."