漢堡王:船大難掉頭
????麥當勞(McDonald's)的高達1,000億美元的總市值并不是天上掉下來的。除了本世紀最初幾年,麥當勞的高管們一直盡職地擔當著管家的角色,替股東們妥善地管理著他們的資本。而與他們相比,漢堡王(Burger King)的領導層在這方面的表現則相去甚遠。雖然公司近期取得了些許的發展,但這對于提高公司信譽也無濟于事。 ????漢堡王這塊招牌一直被許多企業作為斂財的工具,比如1989年至2002年,公司的東家有皮爾斯伯里公司(Pillsbury)、大都會公司(Grand Met)和迪阿吉奧公司(Diageo)。2002年至2006年期間,美國德太投資有限公司(TPG Capital)等私募股權公司也開始插手漢堡王,希望從中分一杯羹。2006年至2010年,私募股權公司希望能在漢堡王上市時從中套現。結果,由于這家快餐連鎖公司缺乏最基本的發展動力,最終公司易手,3G資本公司(3G Capital)成為新東家。 ????如今,3G資本計劃將漢堡王在紐約證交所重新上市。經過一系列復雜交易后,目前3G資本擁有漢堡王71%的股份,剩余股份則由投資公司Justice Holdings持有。Justice Holdings公司是投資家比爾?阿克曼及其對沖基金潘興廣場資產管理公司(Pershing Square Capital)旗下的一家專項收購公司。 ????筆者認為,過去幾年,公司歷任東家,包括現在的3G資本在內,為了給母公司股東帶來快速的回報,不惜透支公司的資本品牌。漢堡王面臨的問題是實實在在的,以至于其整個業務鏈顯得“太大而無法修復”,至少這些問題在短期內難以解決。據筆者計算,之前獲得漢堡王所有權的兩家私募股權公司,從漢堡王套取了至少10億美元。而這筆錢本原本可以用來改善公司和對手的競爭形勢。如今,漢堡王已經很難跟上競爭對手的步伐。 ????麥當勞是漢堡王最不想面對的競爭對手。2002年至2011年期間,麥當勞僅美國業務的資本支出便在50至60億美元之間。雖然麥當勞的運營系統仍在不斷改良,而且確實有許多店鋪需要改建,但與漢堡王不同,麥當勞已經制定了可行的方案,而且,其運營體系向來不缺少資金支持。 ????然而,盡管漢堡王一直受到各種問題的困擾,接管公司剛剛18個月的3G資本仍然聲稱,漢堡王已經東山再起。要知道,3G資本并未投入任何資金用于改善漢堡王的經營,問題怎么可能得到解決呢? ????讀者朋友們不妨自問一下,如果有意忽略,有多少問題最終自行得到了解決?肯定不會太多。而3G資本公司不僅未在漢堡王投入任何資金,去年,它反而從公司卷走了2.95億美元。另外,從公司的基本表現來看,所謂公司東山再起的證據,是指同店銷售連續四個月出現正向增長,而實際上,當時恰逢餐飲業最火爆的時節。但是在此之前,公司的銷售額已經連續三年呈負增長趨勢。 ????餐飲業快速服務類產品所面臨的競爭,其激烈程度絕對超過其他大部分行業。因為消費者的口味在不斷變化,而進入市場的門檻卻又很低。過去十年,快餐業經歷的巨大變革充分說明了這一點。在消費者體驗方面,各個階段的要求大幅提高。為了搶占市場份額,許多公司都進行了必要的投資,比如墨西哥Chipotle餐廳的“流水線式”訂餐服務,星巴克(Starbucks)的“視覺與感官”策略,以及達美樂(Domino)的在線訂餐體驗等。 |
????McDonald's has a market capitalization of $100 billion for a reason. With the exception of a few years in the early 2000's, McDonald's executives have been very good stewards of their shareholders' capital. Sadly, the same cannot be said for Burger King's leadership over the past 10 years and the latest developments will do little, in our view, to enhance the company's reputation. ????The Burger King brand has been a cash cow that has lined the coffers of several different firms such as Pillsbury, Grand Met, and Diageo from 1989 through 2002. Private equity firm TPG Capital and others got in on the act from 2002 through 2006. From 2006 through 2010, PE firms tried to cash out while the company was public but, ultimately, the chain failed to gain fundamental momentum and 3G Capital took it over. ????Now, 3G plans to list Burger King on the New York Stock Exchange, in a complex deal that will result in the private equity firm owning 71% of Burger King with the rest owned by Justice Holdings, a special purpose acquisition company owned in part by financier Bill Ackman and his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital. ????Our view is that the overriding motivation of several owners throughout the years, and now 3G Capital, has been to starve the brand of capital in order to pay parent shareholders nice and quickly. Burger King's issues may be so substantial that the chain may be "too big to fix", at least in the near term. By our reckoning, the last two private equity firms that have taken ownership of the company have deprived it of $1 billion or more in capital that could have been used to improve the company's relative standing versus its competitors, many of whom Burger King now struggles to keep up with. ????The least favorable comparison for Burger King is McDonald's. Between 2002 and 2011, McDonald's (MCD) has spent between $5 billion and $6 billion in capital expenditures on its U.S. business alone. While McDonald's system is still in the process of being upgraded and does include some stores in need of remodeling, a plan is in place and the system has not been starved of capital as Burger King's has. ????However, despite the continuous issues that have dogged the chain, its owners of 18 months have claimed that Burger King is back. Somehow, having invested no capital into fixing the business, its problems have been resolved. ????Ask yourself how many of your own problems you've solved by ignoring them. Not many. Not only has 3G Capital not invested any capital in the company, it sucked $295 million out of the business last year. The evidence for the company being back, in terms of its fundamental performance, is four months of positive same-store sales during the most favorable weather the restaurant industry has seen in years. Before this recent period, comps were negative for three years. ????There are very few industries that are more competitive than the quick service segment of the restaurant industry. Consumer tastes are constantly changing and barriers to entry are low. The dramatic changes that have taken place within the industry over the past ten years underscore that point. The bar has been risen in terms of the consumer experience at every stage of the process; Chipotle's (CMG) "assembly-line" ordering, Starbucks' (SBUX) look and feel, and Domino's online ordering experience are three examples of companies making the necessary investment to capture share. |