中國(guó)避免經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸需要派發(fā)消費(fèi)券
???? 成熟經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,消費(fèi)支出往往在經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中占據(jù)相當(dāng)大的比重,最顯著的例子就是美國(guó):該國(guó)的消費(fèi)支出約占經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的70%。多年來(lái),備受指責(zé)的美國(guó)消費(fèi)社會(huì)不僅支撐著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì),而且吸納了一大塊中國(guó)出口商品,由此也協(xié)助驅(qū)動(dòng)了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長(zhǎng)。但現(xiàn)如今,美國(guó)消費(fèi)者一個(gè)子兒也沒有了,不能再指望他們吸收更多的中國(guó)商品。同時(shí),歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)困局意味著,寄望歐洲人消化過(guò)剩的中國(guó)商品也是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的。現(xiàn)在,這份責(zé)任落在了中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的肩上,他們目前的消費(fèi)支出僅占中國(guó)GDP的44%。 ???? 為了提升中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買力,中國(guó)需要把更多的錢放進(jìn)老百姓的口袋里,而且要讓他們放心大膽地把這筆錢花出去。一條可行之策是通過(guò)減稅(比如標(biāo)準(zhǔn)稅率為17%的增值稅)降低商品價(jià)格。增值稅往往會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,因?yàn)榫捅举|(zhì)而言,購(gòu)物者是最終的納稅主體。降低甚或取消增值稅、以及中央和地方政府征收的其他消費(fèi)稅,將對(duì)消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生立竿見影的積極影響。 ????中國(guó)也應(yīng)該找出對(duì)策,遏制中國(guó)消費(fèi)者在海外花錢的趨勢(shì)。中國(guó)最大的信用卡發(fā)行商中國(guó)銀聯(lián)(China UnionPay)提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)消費(fèi)者去年在海外花費(fèi)了近500億美元,較2010年飆升了66%。中國(guó)同期的消費(fèi)品零售總額僅增長(zhǎng)了17%,遠(yuǎn)低于中國(guó)公民海外消費(fèi)的增速。現(xiàn)在,越來(lái)越多的中國(guó)人走出國(guó)門,但出國(guó)的主要原因之一在于,他們想購(gòu)買要么在國(guó)內(nèi)無(wú)法買到,要么因沉重的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅和其他稅收等因素導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)售價(jià)過(guò)于高昂的商品。根據(jù)中國(guó)商務(wù)部(the Chinese Ministry of Commerce)提供的數(shù)據(jù),中國(guó)奢侈品的價(jià)格比美國(guó)高出了大約50% ,比法國(guó)更是足足高出了72%。世界奢侈品協(xié)會(huì)(World Luxury Association)估計(jì),中國(guó)消費(fèi)者去年的奢侈品購(gòu)買開支約占?xì)W洲奢侈品銷售總額的62%。諷刺的是,他們所購(gòu)買的許多商品其實(shí)都是在中國(guó)本土生產(chǎn)制造的。 ????但本文所說(shuō)的中國(guó)消費(fèi)者不只是那些有錢購(gòu)買普拉達(dá)(Prada)皮包的富裕群體。就算依靠微薄工資生活的10億左右中國(guó)人的消費(fèi)支出僅僅出現(xiàn)小幅增長(zhǎng),也足以對(duì)中國(guó)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生巨大的推動(dòng)作用。中國(guó)政府或許可以效仿美國(guó)在上一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間的做法,向民眾派發(fā)“消費(fèi)券”,臨時(shí)推動(dòng)一下消費(fèi)支出。就長(zhǎng)期而言,政府應(yīng)允許全國(guó)各地的工資緩慢增長(zhǎng)或制定最低工資制度,從而讓更多的民眾能夠買得起這些年來(lái)他們一直在生產(chǎn)制造的商品。當(dāng)然,所有這些政策都應(yīng)該保持平衡,逐步推行,以確保消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買力的增加部分不會(huì)被通貨膨脹吞噬。 ????最終,中國(guó)人需要無(wú)憂無(wú)慮地花錢購(gòu)物,以幫助中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入下一個(gè)發(fā)展階段。要讓中國(guó)老百姓更放心地增加開支,減少儲(chǔ)蓄,中國(guó)社保體系還需經(jīng)歷一段漫長(zhǎng)進(jìn)程,逐步改善。消費(fèi)支出增長(zhǎng)的凈效應(yīng)可能是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的顯著增長(zhǎng),它將幫助中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)避免任何形式的著陸,無(wú)論是硬著陸,還是軟著陸。 ????譯者:任文科 |
??? Consumer spending makes up the bulk of economic activity in mature economies, most notably in the U.S. where it is around 70% of the economy. The much-maligned American consumer society not only held up the U.S. economy for years, but also helped drive China's growth rate by absorbing a large chunk of its exports. But now, U.S. consumers are tapped out, and therefore cannot be counted on to suck up more Chinese goods. Meanwhile, Europe's economic malaise means that it cannot be counted on either to help mop up surplus Chinese goods. That duty now falls to the Chinese consumer, whose spending comprises just 44% of the country's GDP. ?? To empower the Chinese consumer, Beijing needs to put more money in people's pockets and make them feel comfortable enough to spend it. One way to do this is to make goods cheaper by lowering taxes, like the national 17% VAT tax. VAT taxes have a negative impact on consumer spending as they basically tax people for shopping. Lowering or removing the VAT, along with a number of other state and local consumption taxes, would have a direct and immediate positive impact on consumer spending. ????The country should also look for a way to keep Chinese consumers from spending money abroad. Chinese consumers spent nearly $50 billion overseas last year, which was up 66% from 2010, according to China UnionPay, the nation's largest credit card issuer. China's overall retail sales growth was up 17% during the same time, far less than the growth in foreign spending. The Chinese are traveling more than ever before, but one of the primary reasons is because they want to go shopping for goods that they either can't get in China or that are too expensive due to all the heavy taxes and import duties. Prices for luxury goods in China are around 50% higher than in the U.S. and a whopping 72% higher than in France, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. The World Luxury Association estimates that the Chinese consumer made up around 62% of all luxury sales in Europe last year. Ironically, much of what they are buying was originally made in China. ????But it isn't just the well-off Chinese buying Prada purses that should be targeted here. The Chinese consumer market could get a huge boost from just a fraction of growth in spending by the billion or so Chinese who live on meager wages. The Chinese government may consider sending out stimulus checks like the U.S. did during its last recession to give a temporary boost to consumer spending. For a longer term fix, the government should allow wages to slowly rise across the country or possibly institute a minimum wage so that more people can afford to buy the things that they have been making all these years. Of course, these policies should be balanced and introduced gradually to ensure that the gains in consumer spending aren't eaten up by inflation. ????Ultimately, the Chinese need to feel comfortable spending to help China move into its next phase of economic growth. Improvements in the nation's social security system would go a long way to make it easier for Chinese people to spend more and save less. The net effect could be a strong increase in economic activity, which could help China avoid any sort of landing, be it hard or soft.? |