????盡量簡(jiǎn)單——聽起來很容易，但在華爾街很少有人能做到。

????過度復(fù)雜化對(duì)投資流程的侵蝕體現(xiàn)在很多方面，其中就包括耽于分析。無疑，我們都曾與有此類嫌疑的分析師們合作過。這類分析師會(huì)給出75頁的電子表格，分析細(xì)致到清潔工總管行政助理的資本回報(bào)率，但卻無力預(yù)測(cè)股價(jià)漲跌。他們迷失在了過量的信息里，無法做出決定。

????投資復(fù)雜化的另一罪狀是：分析師將簡(jiǎn)單事情復(fù)雜化，比方說估值。我老家的一位朋友說，當(dāng)氣溫為40攝氏度時(shí)，不需問天有多冷，因?yàn)槟阒劳饷?絕對(duì)不*冷。估值也一樣。如果股票或資產(chǎn)便宜，無需力證這一點(diǎn)。估值便足以說明問題了。

????上周晚些時(shí)候，我寫了一篇關(guān)于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的估值研究報(bào)告。目前很多股市專家認(rèn)為，根據(jù)未來的普遍收益預(yù)期判斷，目前的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)價(jià)格很便宜。不幸的是，這項(xiàng)分析真的沒那么簡(jiǎn)單，根本原因在于，普遍預(yù)期通常都并不正確。實(shí)際上，據(jù)麥肯錫（McKinsey）對(duì)1985年至2009年數(shù)據(jù)的研究，92%的情況下標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的預(yù)期收益都要高于實(shí)際公布的收益。

????因此，顯然，簡(jiǎn)單的估值判斷也要取決于收益預(yù)期的復(fù)雜性。就標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的估值來看，我們傾向于使用“周期調(diào)整市盈率”（CAPE）。CAPE是耶魯大學(xué)（Yale）教授羅伯特?席勒倡導(dǎo)的一個(gè)指標(biāo)，即剔除通脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)周期因素的市盈率。當(dāng)前，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的CAPE指標(biāo)為21.9倍，是2011年7月以來的最高值，位于自1880年（遠(yuǎn)在我出生之前）以來市場(chǎng)估值的前20%。

????CAPE在2009年3月創(chuàng)下了13.4倍這個(gè)35年來的最低值，與其他股市估值指標(biāo)以及市場(chǎng)見底的時(shí)間一致。當(dāng)時(shí)的股票價(jià)格便宜，這么說既簡(jiǎn)單又明了。而現(xiàn)在看來，它既不簡(jiǎn)單，也不明了。

????最近，我們開始為股票市場(chǎng)的另一簡(jiǎn)單指標(biāo)——芝加哥期權(quán)交易所的VIX指數(shù)創(chuàng)下峰值而歡呼雀躍。下圖顯示的是，自2009年3月見底至今整整三年時(shí)間里，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)與VIX指數(shù)的對(duì)比走勢(shì)。正如圖標(biāo)所示，VIX指數(shù)達(dá)到15左右的時(shí)候，也正好是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)出現(xiàn)短期高點(diǎn)的時(shí)候，屢試不爽。頭腦簡(jiǎn)單的人可能會(huì)覺得這是一個(gè)值得重視的危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)。更簡(jiǎn)單來說，當(dāng)VIX指數(shù)達(dá)到這一水平時(shí)，表明股市已經(jīng)觸頂。

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????Keep it simple – it sounds so easy and yet very few people on Wall Street are capable of it.

????Complexity negatively infiltrates the investment process in a number of ways. One way is analysis paralysis. Undoubtedly, we've all worked with analysts that are guilty of this crime. The guilty analyst will have a 75-page spreadsheet analyzing a company down to the return on capital of the administrative assistant to the head janitor, but won't be able to make a call on whether the stock is going up or down. The analyst knows so much, he or she is in fact paralyzed and unable to make a decision.

????The other crime of investing complexity is when an analyst complicates simple things, like say valuation. A friend of mine from home says that when it is – 40 degrees Celsius out, you don't need to ask how cold it is, you just know it is *expletive* cold. The same could be said for valuation. If a stock or asset is cheap, you shouldn't have to argue it's cheap, or justify that it is cheap. The valuation will be plainly obvious.

????Late last week I wrote a research note on the valuation of the S&P 500 index. Many stock market pundits are making the case that the SP500 is cheap based on future consensus earnings. Unfortunately, that analysis is not really all that simple, for the basic reason that consensus estimates are usually wrong. In fact, according to a McKinsey study from 1985 to 2009, S&P 500 earnings estimates were higher than the actual reported number 92% of the time.

????So, obviously when making the simple valuation call, it depends on the complexity of the underlying estimates. When looking at the valuation of the S&P 500, we prefer to use CAPE, or cyclically adjusted price to earnings. CAPE is a metric popularized by Yale Professor Robert Shiller that looks at a market P/E that is adjusted for inflation and normalized for cycles. Currently, CAPE is showing that the S&P 500 is trading 21.9 times earnings, which is the highest level since July 2011 and in the top quintile of market valuations going back to 1880 (before even I was born).

????CAPE hit a 35-year low in March of 2009 at 13.4x. This also coincided with a low in other stock market valuation metrics and the bottoming of the market. Stocks were, simply, and obviously, cheap. As for now, it is neither simple, nor obvious.

????As of late, we've been flagging and harping on another simple indicator of the equity markets peaking, which is the VIX. The chart below goes back exactly three years to the bottom in March 2009 and compares the S&P 500 to the VIX over that period. As the chart shows, a VIX level of 15-ish has coincided consistently with a short-term top. To the simpletons at Hedgeye, that is a red flag worth emphasizing. More simply, the VIX at this level signals that complacency is setting in.

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