????上周，美國的參議員們在國會山上圍繞取消冷戰時期針對俄羅斯貿易的限制性法案有何利弊展開了辯論。很多美國公司期待，取消這項限制性法案這一幕能夠成為現實。

????普遍預計這些貿易壁壘將于今年清除，一旦如愿，它給美國對外貿易帶來的將完全是正面效應。從守舊的農業合作社到固步自封的汽車產業，俄羅斯過時低效的經濟很難能與規模更大、效率更高的美國工業和零售企業競爭。另外，華爾街也能說服美國投資者重新審視俄羅斯，同時鼓動俄羅斯公司到紐約募資或上市，從中牟利。

????當然，這些要變成現實，俄美兩國首先必須跨越兩國之家已存在了近一個世紀的種種障礙和偏見。

????俄羅斯加入世貿組織（World Trade Organization）花了18年時間。俄羅斯最早于1993年提出申請，當時這個國家剛剛擺脫共產主義，轉向資本主義，但直到去年年底才終于獲邀加入這個組織。從集中的計劃經濟向自由市場的轉型并不輕松。腐敗和暗箱操作已成為常態，俄羅斯的億萬富翁們必須采取一切必要的手段，暴力捍衛自己的利益。從1998年的債務違約到2008年入侵格魯吉亞，總有充分的理由迫使美國投資者遏制進入俄羅斯市場的念頭。

????所有的亂象的背后，倒霉的是俄羅斯人民。這些年俄羅斯經濟沒有出現應有的增長或現代化，如今仍高度依賴能源和礦產品出口（俄羅斯是全球最大的石油出口國）。俄羅斯對進口商品征收高額關稅，以保護一些效率低下的大型產業，特別是汽車產業。在俄羅斯經商也步履維艱，這個國家的政治和司法系統臭名昭著，出了名的腐敗。近些年，情況惡劣不堪，導致俄羅斯的外國直接投資已經變為事實上的負值，這在新興市場中聞所未聞。

????盡管俄羅斯已經在去年12月獲準加入了世貿組織后，但美國仍然保留著冷戰時期針對俄羅斯貿易的限制性法案。上周四，美國參議院討論擬取消這項法案，在今夏俄羅斯正式入世前恢復俄美兩國貿易關系的正常化。反對取消所謂的杰克遜?瓦尼克修正案的主要理由是俄羅斯糟糕的人權紀錄以及對其民主承諾的疑慮。共和黨人試圖發出聲音，表達憂慮之情，但卻遭到民主黨人的打壓。美國總統奧巴馬已將廢棄該修正案作為其貿易政策的一個核心支柱。因此，雖然共和黨人在參議院有不同意見，但這項對俄修正案幾乎肯定會被取消，俄美兩國的貿易關系將迎來正常化。

????俄羅斯開放，最大的受益者可能是美國和歐洲商界。一部分商品的關稅下降，特別是服務業，預計將惠及那些希望能在俄羅斯新興的中產階級市場中大展拳腳的美國公司。美國商會（U.S. Chamber of Commerce）等主要利益團體以及173家美國公司已向美國參議院致信，要求恢復與俄羅斯的貿易正常化。

????On Capitol Hill last week, senators debated the merits of lifting Cold War-era trade sanctions against Mother Russia. Plenty of U.S. companies are eager to see this happen.

????The trade barriers are widely expected to fall this year, and when they do it will be a net positive for U.S. trade. Russia's creaky and inefficient economy -- from its sad agriculture collectives to its rusty automotive industry -- won't likely be able to compete against the larger and more efficient U.S. industrial and retail firms. Meanwhile, Wall Street could benefit from coaxing U.S. investors to take a second look at Russia, while at the same time convincing Russian firms to consider New York as the place to raise capital or go public.

????Before any of this can happen, however, the two countries will have to work through the numerous barriers and prejudices that have existed between them for nearly a century.

????Russia's ascension into the World Trade Organization took 18 years. It first applied in 1993 after the nation shrugged off its communist past and moved to capitalism and it was invited to join the WTO late last year. The transition from a centrally-planned economy to the free market has not been easy. Corruption and backroom dealings have become the norm as the nation's billionaire oligarchs violently protect their turf by any means necessary. From a debt default in 1998 to the invasion of Georgia in 2008, there was always a solid reason for U.S. investors to hold back from the Russian market.

????The losers in all of this mess have been the Russian people. Russia's economy has not progressed or modernized as it should have and is still highly dependent on energy and mineral exports to keep the nation afloat (Russia is the world's largest oil exporter). High tariffs are imposed to protect certain large and inefficient industries, especially the automotive industry. Doing business in Russia is also difficult given the nation's notoriously corrupt political and judicial structure. Things got so bad that in the last few years, Russia's foreign direct investment was actually negative – unheard of for an emerging market economy.

????While Russia was accepted into the club in December, the United States still has in place Cold War-era trade sanctions against Russia. The U.S. Senate met last Thursday to discuss dropping these laws so that they could normalize trade relations before Russia formally joins the WTO this summer. The main argument against lifting the so-called Jackson-Vanik amendment derives from Russia's abominable human rights record and its questionable commitment to democracy. Republicans tried to voice their concerns but it was the Democrats that shut them down. President Obama has made the lifting of the amendment a key pillar of his trade policy. So while the Republicans are raising some noise in the Senate, the amendment will almost surely be lifted on Russia, leading to a normalization of trade relations between the two countries.

????U.S. and European companies will likely benefit the most from an open Russia. The reduction in tariffs on certain goods, especially in the service industry, is expected to benefit U.S. companies hoping to tap the burgeoning Russian middle class. Major interest groups, like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, along with 173 US companies, have sent letters to Congress demanding the normalization of trade with Russia.