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花旗等四家銀行未能通過壓力測試

花旗等四家銀行未能通過壓力測試

Stephen Gandel 2012-03-15
美聯(lián)儲表示,美國最大的19家金融公司中有15家已做好準備,足以迎接下一次經(jīng)濟衰退的挑戰(zhàn)。但花旗集團等幾家公司則可能還需要補充資本。

????美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)宣稱,美國最大的銀行中大部分都已有能力抵御新一輪的深度衰退。但是,還有四家銀行仍需努力。

????美聯(lián)儲在周二發(fā)布的壓力測試結(jié)果中表示,美國最大的19家金融公司中有15家已有充足的資本可應(yīng)付極端情形下可能出現(xiàn)的損失:極端情形包括高達13%的失業(yè)率、股市下跌50%以及房價繼續(xù)下跌21%。聯(lián)合金融公司(Ally Financial)、花旗集團(Citigroup)和太陽信托銀行(SunTrust)這三家銀行在這樣極端不利的情形下,可能需要從投資者或政府手中獲得新資本。第四家金融公司、大都會人壽(Metlife)可能也需要獲得幫助。美聯(lián)儲的一位高級官員稱,所有這4家公司都需要提交計劃,詳細說明它們打算如何擴充資本,提高自身抵御經(jīng)濟下滑沖擊的能力。

????花旗自稱仍處于全球資本金最充足的大銀行之列。不過,它同時也表示,無法像原先希望的那樣增加派息,并會向美聯(lián)儲提交一份修改后的資本計劃。聯(lián)合金融公司則稱,公司支持進行壓力測試,但不同意美聯(lián)儲預(yù)設(shè)的很多假設(shè),包括夸大該行潛在的按揭貸款損失。記者未能聯(lián)系到太陽信托銀行對此發(fā)表評論。大都會人壽則稱,對保險公司和銀行采用同樣的測試有失公允。

????總之,美聯(lián)儲稱,(在極端不利的情形下,)美國最大的19家銀行總損失可能高達5,340億美元。其中主要來自不良貸款和“國際金融市場震蕩”造成的交易損失。美聯(lián)儲稱,大部分銀行有能力消化這些損失,因為自2009年初以來,它們已經(jīng)累計籌集資本超過3,000億美元。一位美聯(lián)儲高級官員稱:“過去三年里,銀行業(yè)的資本狀況已得到了很大的改善。”

????作為衡量一家銀行健康與否的一項關(guān)鍵指標,這些美國大銀行的一級普通股權(quán)益資本充足率可能平均從最近的10.1%下降到了6.3%。美聯(lián)儲通常將該指標高于5%視為一家銀行狀況良好。聯(lián)合金融公司在美聯(lián)儲此次壓力測試中表現(xiàn)最差。美聯(lián)儲稱,其資本充足率可能已經(jīng)降至監(jiān)管下限的一半。美國最大的6家銀行中,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)在此次測試中表現(xiàn)最佳,其資本充足率為6%。

????美聯(lián)儲稱,這次壓力測試的依據(jù)是極端不利的情形,并不是現(xiàn)實的經(jīng)濟前景。自從金融危機爆發(fā)以來,這是美聯(lián)儲首次發(fā)布有關(guān)銀行業(yè)金融健康狀況的詳盡測試結(jié)果。

????譯者:早稻米

????The Federal Reserve said a majority of the nation's largest banks would be able to weather another deep recession. Four banks, though, have more work to do.

????In the stress test results it released on Tuesday afternoon, the Fed said that 15 of the nation's 19 largest financial firms have enough capital to cover losses under extreme circumstances: an unemployment rate of 13%, a 50% decline in stock prices and another 21% in housing prices. Three banks - Ally Financial, Citigroup (C) and SunTrust (STI) - would likely need new capital from either investors or the government in the Fed's adverse economic scenario. A fourth financial firm, insurer Metlife (MET), would likely be in need of assistance as well. A senior official at the Fed said all four of the banks would need to submit plans that would detail how they would increase their capital to make them less vulnerable in a downturn.

????Citigroup said it remains among the best capitalized large banks in the world. However, it said it would not be able to raise its dividend as it hoped, and would submit a revised capital plan to the Fed. Ally said it supported the idea of stress tests, but it disagreed with a number of the assumptions the Fed made, including overstating the bank's potential mortgage losses. Suntrust could not be reached for comment. Metlife said it was unfair to apply the same tests to insurers as it did to banks.

????All told, the Fed said that the nation's 19 largest banks could lose as much as $534 billion. The majority of that would come from soured loans and trading losses from a "global financial market shock." The Fed said that the majority of banks would be able to absorb the losses because they have increased their collective capital by more than $300 billion since the start of 2009. "The capital positions of our banks have improved substantially in the past three years," says a senior Fed official.

????The Tier 1 common equity ratio of the nation's largest banks, a key measure of bank health, would fall to an average of 6.3%, from a recent 10.1%. The Fed generally considers anything above 5% to indicate a healthy bank. Ally came out the worst in the Fed's stress test. The Fed said its capital ratio could fall to half of the required amount. Among the nation's six largest banks, Wells Fargo (WFC) came out of the test with the highest ratio of 6%.

????The Fed said the stress test was modeled on an extreme negative scenario and not its actual outlook for the economy. It was the first time the Fed had released a thorough test of the banks' financial health since the early days of the financial crisis.

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