????不久你可能就會發現，你家附近麥當勞里的菜單出現了一些變化。這背后到底有什么文章？

????據路透社（Reuters）報道，麥當勞（McDonald）將于3月末對“一美元菜單”的菜品作出部分調整，同時將擴充超值菜單的選項，增加了20塊麥樂雞塊、雙層吉士漢堡、雞肉快餐卷以及安格斯快餐卷。

????通過采訪我們得知，麥當勞會把重點放在四個不同價位的用餐選擇上（不包括套餐）：

????1、 優質菜單：4.50美元至5.50美元及以上

????2、 核心菜單：3.50美元至4.50美元

????3、 超值菜單（新）：1.20美元至3.50美元及以上

????4、 一美元菜單

????我們的同事，一位餐飲業咨詢師試圖弄清楚麥當勞當前做法的用意，他說：“溫迪快餐連鎖（Wendy’s）和麥當勞公司佯稱，他們采用了神奇的價值定價法，能用低價向消費者提供高價值產品，我覺得這種說法很有意思。但實際上，他們的做法百分之百是由食品成本和消費者行為驅動的。”

????鑒于麥當勞預見到2012年通貨膨脹仍會持續，我們認為，麥當勞將會迫使消費者升級購買超值菜單而不是一美元菜單，以此來維持自身利潤。這次最大的改變之一是用新鮮烘焙的曲奇餅干和甜筒冰淇淋取代了一美元菜單中的小杯飲料和小份薯條。考慮到這一點，這種判斷更有說服力了。

????我們認為這種調整對麥當勞來說風險很大。如果消費者的偏好是把飲料和薯條看作一美元菜單的組成部分，那么這種改變就有可能損害消費者的滿意度。麥當勞公司在采訪中稱：“迷你套餐”的食品選項可能會把薯條、漢堡和飲料打包進去，但現在尚未確定。而一美元食品單點服務正在被取消。

????新的“超值菜單”廣告將從3月26日開始播出。根據路透社報道，“新菜單將包括20塊麥樂雞塊、雙層吉士漢堡、雞肉快餐卷、安格斯快餐卷、中杯冰咖啡、小量麥旋風（McFlurries），以及多達四種區域性食品選項，這些選項之前沒有列入超值菜單。”麥當勞的想法是簡化菜單，改變菜單中的主打品類。麥當勞顯然喜歡換一種說法來傳達這個想法，這家公司聲稱：調整的目的是為了‘方便消費者找到（超值菜單選項）’。”

????在我們看來，問題在于，“一美元菜單”已經存在很長時間了。通貨膨脹已經讓其成為無利可圖但又不得不保留的累贅。消費者也感受到了通脹的壓力，原來他們會購買核心菜單上六七美元的套餐，而現在他們會選擇更劃算的一美元套餐。我們認為，麥當勞最近的舉措目的就是要努力遏制顧客從核心菜單流向一美元菜單。這種調整使得四月份的銷售額顯得尤為重要，因為投資者將會密切關注新菜單是否能能夠奏效。

????Some incremental changes are coming to a McDonald's menu near you – what are the implications?

????Later this month, McDonald's will change some of its Dollar Menu items and it will begin offering an expanded value menu, including 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, and Angus snack wraps, according to Reuters.

????As we learned in a conversation with the company, McDonald's is focusing its menu on four tiers (not including combo meals):

????1. Premium: $4.50-$5.50+

????2. Core: $3.50-$4.50

????3. Extra Value Menu (new): $1.20 to $3.50+

????4. Dollar menu

????In trying to understand the implications of what McDonald's is doing, a restaurant industry consultant and associate of ours had this to say: "I get a kick out of these corporate guys at Wendy's (WEN) and McDonald's pretending they have some magical formula for value pricing. It's 100% driven by food costs and customer behavior."

????Given that McDonald's (MCD) is seeing increasing inflation in 2012, we believe the company is trying to manage its margins by forcing consumers to trade up to the "extra value menu" from the "dollar menu." This makes more sense when we consider that one of the biggest changes is to remove small drinks and small fries from the dollar menu and replace those items with fresh baked cookies and ice cream cones.

????We see this as a big risk for McDonald's. If customer preference is to have the drink and fries as part of the dollar menu then there is a risk that this change negatively impacts customer satisfaction. The company told us that a "mini-combo meal" offering may bundle the fries, burger, and drink but a decision has not been made on that yet. Still, ordering the $1 items individually is being taken off the table.

????The new "Extra Value Menu" will be advertised on March 26th. According to Reuters, "the new menu will include 20-piece chicken McNuggets, double cheeseburgers, chicken snack wraps, Angus snack wraps, medium iced coffees and snack-sized McFlurries, plus up to four regional options, that were previously listed elsewhere on its menu." The idea for McDonald's is to streamline and change what is highlighted on the menu. The company likes to phrase this differently, saying that it is "making it easier for customers to find ['Extra Value Menu' items]."

????From our perspective, the big problem is that the "Dollar Menu" has been around for a very long time. Inflation has made it an unprofitable but necessary evil. Customers, also pressed by inflation, have been migrating from the combo meals on the core menu, which can cost $6-$7, over to the Dollar Menu where customers get almost double the value from a price perspective. We view this latest change as an attempt by the company to stem this flow of business from the core menu to the dollar menu. This adds an extra emphasis on the importance of April sales; investors will be watching closely for an indication of whether or not the new menu strategy is working.