中國衰退論陰魂不散

????世界銀行（World Bank）近日發布的一份報告指出，中國可能將面臨一次經濟危機，除非中國實施深層次的改革，包括收縮國有企業規模，同時改善企業家的生存環境。

????《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）率先報道了這份題為《中國2030》（China 2030）的報告。該報告警告，中國的經濟增長可能會突然急劇減緩。報告援引了一個近年來才得到確認的現象，經濟學家們稱之為“中等收入陷阱”，指的是當一個快速增長的經濟體的年人均收入達到17,000美元左右時，其經濟增長速度會出現顯著下降。希臘和愛爾蘭等國都經歷過這種現象。有些分析人士表示，中國到2015年左右也將成為中等收入陷阱的受害者。

????報告還指出，主導中國經濟的大量國有企業未來將面臨一個十字路口。如果放任國有企業不受約束地增長，他們可能會妨礙商業競爭，擠壓自由市場創業精神的生存空間。汽車廠商們都深知這一點。中國要求西方廠商必須與中國企業建立合資公司，而其中有些最重要的中資合作方就是國有企業。

????此類合作中最成功的一個當屬上海通用。通用汽車與國有的上汽集團（Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation，SAIC）建立了長期穩固的合作關系。上汽集團甚至在海外也有發展。二者合資建立的上海通用汽車公司占據了中國乘用車市場9%的份額，而上海通用五菱則在中國賣出了100多萬輛輕卡和面包車。現在二者又達成了一項新的合作，聯手開發印度和東南亞市場。在亞洲工作的分析師鄧凱一針見血的指出：“通用汽車在中國做的每一件事，上汽都有染指。”

????通用汽車與上汽的關系最近有點復雜。2009年在通用破產危機進入白熱化的階段，通用汽車向上汽出售了上海通用1%的原始股權，使上汽集團擁有了51%的控股權。后來通用一直想回購這1%的股權，使雙方重新回到50%對50%的均勢。據說雙方在友好的氣氛中進行了談判。但到底怎么回事，誰知道呢？考慮到中國當前的汽車銷量、政治、經濟和行業政策，現在就預言中國車市的未來，恐怕要冒格外大的風險。

????譯者：樸成奎

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The specter of a Chinese recession

????A new report by the World Bank says China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making life easier for entrepreneurs.

????The report, titled "China 2030, " whose contents were first reported in the Wall Street Journal, warns that growth could slow rapidly and abruptly. It cites a recently identified phenomenon that economists call the "middle-income trap," in which rapidly growing economies slow down significantly when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 a year. The phenomenon has been observed in Greece and Ireland, among other countries, and some analysts say China could fall victim by 2015.

????The report also sees a crossroads ahead for China's state-owned companies, which dominate the economy. Left to grow unchecked, they could put a damper on competition and squeeze out the spread of free-market entrepreneurism. Auto companies know all about this. China requires that Western manufacturers establish joint ventures with Chinese companies, and some of the most prominent are state-owned.

????In one of the most successful such arrangements, GM is locked into long-term partnerships with the state-owned Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) that have spread even beyond China's borders. Shanghai-GM has a 9% share of the China passenger car market, while Shanghai-GM-Wuling sells more than a million small trucks and vans in China. Yet another partnership between the two companies has been formed to expand into India and Southeast Asia. As Asia-based analyst Michael Dunne has wisely observed, "SAIC has its fingers in everything GM does in China."

????GM's relationship with SAIC has been tangled lately. The U.S. automaker sold a 1% interest in its primary joint venture to its partner in 2009 during the heat of the bankruptcy crisis, giving SAIC a 51% controlling interest. Lately GM has been trying to reacquire that 1% to restore the balance to an even 50-50 split, and negotiations are said to be proceeding amicably, but who knows? Given the current state of sales, politics, the economy, and industrial policy, predicting the future in China right now seems especially hazardous.