????如果你已經不記得1986年庫爾特?拉塞爾主演的冒險喜劇爛片《小中華里的大麻煩》（Big Trouble in Little China，又譯《妖魔大鬧唐人街》——譯注），沒有人會責怪你。不過現在美國三大汽車廠商可能正在上演著它即將出爐的續集：《大中華里的大麻煩》。主演正是三巨頭的老板：通用汽車的丹?阿克森、福特的艾倫?穆拉利和克萊斯勒的塞爾吉奧?馬基奧尼。

????人們一直認為中國很快就會成為全球最大的汽車消費市場。但從最近的局勢發展來看，這塊大蛋糕很可能會顯著縮水，甚至就此化作泡影。徜若真是這樣，通用（General Motors）、福特（Ford）和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）必將遭受沉重的打擊。現在人們不僅在討論過熱的中國經濟是否會不可避免地走向冷卻，就連中國政經體系核心的那些復雜的社會和政治問題，也成了人們關注的焦點。以下就是中國近期出現的幾個危險信號：

一月份中國汽車銷量顯著下降

????據LMC Automotive公司（前身為J.D. Power and Associates公司）報道，2012年1月，中國乘用車市場銷量下降了23%。“雖然之前已經預料到市場會疲軟，但這個消息還是令很多人深感震驚，因為人們都認為中國市場的強勁增長是理所當然的事。”這個消息同樣也令底特律的很多人震驚不已。比如通用汽車在中國的銷量大大超出其在美國的銷量。雖然今年一月別克（Buick）品牌在華銷量上漲了2%，但雪佛蘭（Chevrolet）這個通用近來正在全球各地大力推廣的品牌，銷量卻下跌了16%。福特遭受的打擊更為沉重，它的銷量猛跌了42%。

????雖然今年剩余月份的業績未必都會如此慘淡，但這種趨勢還是讓人樂觀不起來。根據從13家汽車廠商匯總的銷售目標來看，2012年中國汽車市場有望增長13.5%,遠遠低于一年前各廠商為2011年制定的20.4%的增長目標。LMC給2012年中國乘用車市場制定的目標甚至更低，只有9.2%。該公司表示：“我們相信，市場在未來幾年里會回歸到一個更加有機的增長途徑。”潛臺詞就是：狂飆突進的增長時期已經結束了。

外資優惠政策時代的終結

????中國政府正在取消對新開工建設項目的補貼，同時也提高了外國廠商在華擴張的審批門檻，以限制外國廠商的擴張。中國政府曾經給予通用和福特不少激勵政策，比如生產設備可以獲得進口關稅減免，外國廠商也可以通過建設新工廠來換取較低的稅率等。但這些優惠政策已經在1月31日到期了。隨著增長放緩，中國現在正著手保護苦苦掙扎的本土汽車廠商——據說有70家之多，而且據報道，有些中國國內廠商2011年連一臺汽車也沒有生產。

????已經在中國扎根的廠商在短期內應該不會受到影響。

????福特進入中國較晚，但一直在全力追趕。福特正在亞太地區增加230萬輛汽車的產能，其中包括兩個新裝配工廠、一個新發動機工廠，并對另一個發動機工廠進行擴建，此外還有一個新的傳動系統工廠它們全部都在中國。目前通用汽車在中國也有全套的生產系統。政策調整后，最大的受害者當屬克萊斯勒。全球知名汽車廠商中，克萊斯勒是少數幾個沒有在中國開設工廠的廠商之一，而現在克萊斯勒幾乎連補救的機會都沒有了。

????分析人士早就料到中國會采取一些舉措來加強對外國汽車廠商的控制，但是對中國政府具體會怎樣做卻莫衷一是。有些分析人士發現，中國正在加快將西方技術轉變為自有技術。的確，通用汽車正是因為擔心技術轉移的問題，才沒有將破產的薩博（Saab）賣給一家中國廠商。其他觀察人士認為，中國可能會將某些設施或合資企業收歸國有。但無論如何，中國發出的信號是明確的：我們仍然需要你們，但不像過去那樣需要你們了。

????No one can be blamed for forgetting Big Trouble in Little China, the 1986 adventure-comedy flop starring Kurt Russell. But U.S. automakers may be starring in its soon-to-be panned sequel: Big Trouble in Big China, with Dan Akerson, Alan Mulally, and Sergio Marchionne in leading roles.

????Recent developments suggest the bonanza promised by China becoming the world's largest auto market is in danger of shrinking dramatically -- or ending altogether. This could be a big blow to General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500), and Chrysler. At issue is the inevitable cooling of China's overheated economy -- but also complicated social and political problems that lie at the heart of the Chinese system. Here are just a few of the red flags:

January auto sales in China fell sharply

????LMC Automotive, the successor to J.D. Power and Associates, reports that passenger vehicle sales in China fell 23% for the first month of the year: "Although a weak market had been anticipated ... it has still come as a shock to many when solid growth has become a matter of course." That shock may include many in Detroit. GM, for instance, sells more cars in China than it does in the U.S. Sales of Buicks in China rose 2% in January, but volume for Chevrolet, a brand GM has been promoting heavily around the world, fell 16%. Ford took an even heavier beating: Its sales tumbled 42%.

????Results aren't expected to be this disturbing for the rest of the year, but the trend isn't encouraging. According to sales targets compiled from 13 manufacturers, the market is expected to grow 13.5% in 2012. That is well short of the 20.4% growth rate that was predicted by manufacturers a year ago for 2011. LMC has set an even lower target for 2012 passenger vehicles: 9.2%. "We believe the market will return to a more organic growth path in the coming years," it says. Translation: The boom years are over.

End of the government gravy train

????China is sharply curbing the expansion of foreign manufacturers by removing subsidies for new construction and making it more difficult for them to receive permits to expand. GM and Ford used to receive government incentives such as breaks on import duties for plant equipment and lower taxes in exchange for building new factories. But those deals expired on Jan. 31. With growth slowing, China is trying to protect its struggling domestic automakers, said to number about 70 -- some of whom reportedly made no cars at all in 2011.

????Automakers that already have a presence in China shouldn't be affected in the near future.

????Ford was late to the game, but it has been racing to catch up. The automaker is adding capacity for 2.3 million vehicles in the Asia Pacific region, including two new assembly plants, one new engine plant and the expansion of another one, and a new transmission plant -- all in China. Likewise, GM has a full plate in China -- for now. The biggest victim of this policy change is Chrysler. As one of a handful of global manufacturers who make nothing in China, the automaker now has even less of a chance of doing so.

????Analysts have long expected China to take steps to gain more control over foreign automakers but have differed on exactly how. Some saw the nation accelerating the transfer of Western technology to itself. Indeed, fears of technology transfer were the reason why GM blocked the sale of bankrupt Saab to a Chinese manufacturer. Other observers have expected China to simply nationalize some facilities or ventures. But in any event, the message it is sending is clear: We still want you here, but we don't need you as much as we used to.