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迪士尼應該果斷出售美國廣播公司

迪士尼應該果斷出售美國廣播公司

Cyrus Sanati 2012-02-10
美國廣播公司已經成為一個包袱,但迪士尼不僅沒有尋求分拆以減少損失的計劃,據稱反而還打算加碼投資,聯手西班牙傳媒巨頭Univision推出新的有線新聞電視網。這一切讓人看不懂。

????這個方案似乎是一項定位錯誤的冒失之舉。其他所有的24小時有線新聞電視網都根據意識形態劃分:新聞集團(News Corp)的福克斯新聞網(Fox News)瞄準保守人士,時代華納(Time Warner)的有線電視新聞網(CNN)面向溫和派,而康卡斯特(Comcast)和微軟的MSNBC迎合自由主義者【《財富》(Fortune)雜志隸屬于時代華納】。搞不懂為什么說英語的西班牙裔美國人要關心祖父故土上的大選,為什么要關心美國其他地區西班牙裔的現狀。

????迪士尼首席執行官鮑勃?伊格爾曾在一次股東電話會議上被問到傳言的Univision交易,當時,他拒絕置評。“我過去也說過,美國廣播公司是一個平臺,我們將繼續從內容角度進行投資,而新聞網是這個平臺中很重要的一部分,”他說。“而且,我們希望看到新聞網取得成功,給它機會,自行尋找、創造發展的機遇。”

????如今的美國廣播公司新聞網已徒有其表,隨著越來越多的美國人通過互聯網等其他渠道獲取新聞,它的收視率大幅下降。新聞網的高管們上下求索,希望能向其注入“新的活力”。不幸的是,他們的解決之道只是迎合低級趣味,以吸引更多觀眾。因此,“色情片男星取悅女性之道”這樣的報道更可能成為美國廣播公司旗艦新聞欄目《夜線》(Nightline)的頭條,而不是“無聊的”嚴肅新聞話題。看來美國廣播公司新聞網快玩完了。

????迪士尼如果聰明,就該趁早了斷。來自美國廣播公司的協同效應(如果還有的話)極少,隨著收視率持續下降,預計未來美國廣播公司的廣告收入還將繼續下降。努力降低成本,繼續制作人們喜聞樂見的優秀節目,這兩點ABC娛樂和ABC 新聞的高管們忙了十年也沒有做到,沒理由相信他們未來就一定能做好。

????老牌電視網不可能重新獲得過去那樣的收視率,如今消費者有太多的信息和娛樂選擇。如果迪士尼找不到買家,它總是能以免稅分拆的方式將美國廣播公司剝離給它的股東們。這樣,股東們就有機會決定是想繼續把它留在資產組合中,還是將它堅決拋棄。如果估值適當,美國廣播公司依然值得持有。但目前,它似乎拉低了迪士尼的估值,妨礙了股東們實現強勁利潤的夢想。

????That seems like a risky bet built on a false premise. All the other 24-hour cable news networks are divided across the ideological spectrum, with News Corp's (NWS) Fox News catering to conservatives, Time Warner's CNN catering to moderates and Comcast and Microsoft's MSNBC appealing to liberals (Fortune is owned by Time Warner (TWX)). It is unclear why a Hispanic-American, who speaks English, would care about elections back in their grandparent's homeland or about other Hispanic-Americans in other parts of the country.

????When asked about the reported Univision deal, Disney CEO Bob Iger declined to comment during a call with shareholders. "I've said before that ABC is a platform that we continue to invest in from a content perspective, and ABC News is a very important part of that platform," he said. "And we have an interest in seeing that ABC News continues to flourish and giving it an opportunity to look for and create some growth opportunities on its own."

????ABC News is but a shell of what it used to be and its ratings have plummeted as more Americans get their news from other mediums, like the internet. Executives inside ABC News are being shuffled around in an attempt to breathe "new life" into the news division. The answer, unfortunately, has been to appeal to the lowest common denominator in a cheap attempt to lure in viewers. So stories like "how male porn stars are trying to cater to women," are more likely to lead the network's iconic news daily Nightline than a hard news topic considered "boring." The end seems near.

????Disney would be smart to just cut the cord before it is too late. It derives very little, if any, synergies from ABC and ad revenue is expected to fall going forward as viewership continues to drop off. Attempts to cut costs while maintaining quality programming that people want to watch has eluded ABC entertainment and ABC News executives for a decade, and there is no reason to believe that they will ever get it right.

????The old mainline broadcast giants simply cannot capture the viewership they once could due to the plethora of information and entertainment choices now available to consumers. If Disney cannot find a buyer, it could always spinoff ABC to its shareholders in a tax-free spinoff. That would give shareholders the opportunity to decide whether they want to keep ABC as part of their portfolios or dump it. At the right valuation, ABC could be worth owning. But for now, it seems to be dragging Disney's valuation down - preventing shareholders from having their dreams of strong profits come true.

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