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達(dá)沃斯快報(bào):中國(guó)為何缺席?

達(dá)沃斯快報(bào):中國(guó)為何缺席?

Brian Dumaine 2012-01-30
第一次,中國(guó)政府沒有派遣任何高層人物出席今年的達(dá)沃斯論壇。

????在今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的會(huì)址——莊重典雅的會(huì)議中心里,人們小聲談?wù)撝粋€(gè)話題:中國(guó)人怎么沒來?在阿爾卑斯山腳舉辦的該論壇,總能吸引世界最高級(jí)別的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和商界巨頭匯聚一堂,可這次中國(guó)竟然連一個(gè)高級(jí)別官員都沒出席,這還是頭一遭。

????一位與會(huì)者問道,這是否因?yàn)橹袊?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)如此之好,以至于中國(guó)政府覺得沒必要派高層前來?另一位則揣測(cè),中國(guó)持如此保留態(tài)度是因?yàn)檎畵Q屆在即。這些說法都有可能,不過,還是一家印度能源公司首席執(zhí)行官的說法最靠譜。他說:“你們知道吧,這是春節(jié)期間?!?/p>

????去年達(dá)沃斯論壇的氣氛相當(dāng)樂觀,聚集于此的嘉賓們認(rèn)為美國(guó)正在走出衰退,中國(guó)則防止了泡沫破滅,而巴西、印度及其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家一派紅火景象。

????上述這些方面依然如故,可歐元區(qū)的債務(wù)危機(jī)使大家的情緒受了很大影響,不復(fù)去年景象。總的來說氣氛仍是樂觀的,但比去年要謹(jǐn)慎得多。

????盡管有些銀行家認(rèn)為歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)最困難的時(shí)刻已經(jīng)過去,前面還有許多工作要做。英國(guó)首相戴維?卡梅倫今天為歐元區(qū)描述的藍(lán)圖顯得有些黯淡——他指出,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)正在放緩,而債務(wù)猛增、失業(yè)率高漲。

????卡梅倫認(rèn)為,歐盟之成立是歷史上的重要一課,要使歐盟變得更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,政府必須“大膽地”采取行動(dòng)。“小修小補(bǔ)再也不行了?!彼赋?。他開出的藥方包括:政府應(yīng)削減養(yǎng)老金負(fù)擔(dān)、下調(diào)企業(yè)稅率并去除影響就業(yè)的監(jiān)管規(guī)定。

????如今,歐盟各國(guó)領(lǐng)袖最需要做的是贏得工會(huì)的認(rèn)可——?dú)W洲的工會(huì)實(shí)力強(qiáng)大,不大可能會(huì)輕易接受上述方案。

????Whispered in the halls of the World Economic Forum's elegant Congress Center this year: Where are the Chinese? For the first time since anyone can remember, China has not sent a high level official to this Alpine gathering of the world's top leaders and business titans.

????Could it be that the Chinese economy is doing so well that Beijing felt no need to send a high-level entourage, one participant asked. Another speculated the Chinese held off because their government is in transition. Perhaps, but the explanation that makes the most sense came from the CEO of an Indian energy company. "You know," he said. "It's the Chinese New Year."

????Last year, the mood at Davos was quite positive, as those gathered here felt that America was coming out of its slump, China had avoided a bursting bubble and Brazil, India, and the rest of the developing world were humming.

????All that is still true, but the crisis in the Euro Zone has put a bit of a damper on last year's enthusiasm. The buzz this year is still optimistic but much more cautiously so.

????While some bankers think Europe has put the worst of the debt crisis behind it, there's still a lot of heavy hauling ahead. Prime Minister David Cameron today painted a somewhat bleak picture for the Euro Zone where, as he pointed out, growth is slowing and debt and unemployment are rising.

????Cameron believes the European Union is in a crucial moment in its history and "bold" government action is needed to make the EU more competitive. "Tinkering won't cut it anymore," he said. Among his prescriptions: governments need to cut pension obligations, slice the corporate tax rate, and eliminate job-stifling regulations.

????Now all Europe's leaders need to do is win over the EU's strong unions, which aren't likely to receive these prescriptions with an open heart.

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