????航空公司通過控制成本和尋求額外收入來賺錢。最近，收取包裹費、餐飲費、座位選擇費甚至是電話訂票費幫助很多航空公司維持了盈利。這些費用在整個民航系統中都有觸及，看起來與并購狂潮也沒什么關聯。

????公平地講，并購行動剛完成時確實可以帶來一些好處。合并總部及削減管理成本的確對最終保留下來的民航公司起到作用，不過，效果可能有限。例如，一位熟悉美聯航事務的人士向《財富》雜志（Fortune）透露，為了吸引大陸航空的雇員從休斯敦搬到芝加哥，美聯航被迫為其加薪20-30%. 就算考慮稅收減免的問題，將總部留在這樣一個成本高昂的城市，理由也相當奇怪，這表明民航界的并購并不總是理性的。

????美國航空與美聯航合并的話，顯得尤其不合理。由于美聯航以匹茲堡、夏洛特、費城和鳳凰城等地為樞紐運作，其國際化努力頂多可說是邊緣性的。美國航空的網絡要發達得多，其債權人也明白這一點，因此，美聯航要想完成任何交易，都必須提供大量現金作為甜頭，而它并沒有這種財力。

????從表面上看，與達美合作要合理得多，可仍然有一些重大障礙，可能導致交易失敗。首先，由于兩家公司在65個美國國內城市航班中有重疊，這將引發反壟斷問題，而美聯航與大陸航空提出合并時，雙方只有14個重疊的國內直達航班，達美與西北航空合并時更是只有12個重疊航班。這是個重大問題，因為反壟斷監管部門傾向于重點分析各航班的市場占有率，而不是整體情況。

????國際航線方面，達美與美國航空分別隸屬天合聯盟（Sky Team）及寰宇一家（One World）這兩大國際飛行?？吐撁耍沂歉髯月撁嗽诿绹闹е鼈冎g的合并將使謹慎追求平衡的聯盟系統遭到挑戰。如果一家放棄原有聯盟，轉投另一家，將會嚴重打擊客流量。

????此外，兩家公司與其各自聯盟的歐洲主航空公司之間的聯系超越了通常的伙伴關系，因為兩者都在大西洋彼岸獲得了反壟斷豁免。美國航空實際上可以合法地與英國航空（British Airways）就利潤頗豐的紐約至倫敦航班合謀，而達美可以合法地與法航荷航集團（Air France/KLM）就同樣利潤可觀的紐約至巴黎航班協同。合并之后這些協議是否仍然有效？目前還不得而知。

????歸根結底，決定美國航空命運的是其債權人。無擔保債權人委員會的九名成員中，三名屬于工會，如果管理層降低勞動力成本幅度太大，工會很可能加以反對?？墒?，考慮到達美和美聯航的成本結構更低，合并很可能也無法解決他們在經濟利益問題上的憂慮。

????美國航空申請破產保護之時，銀行戶頭上還有40億美元現金，使其有充裕的時間來權衡所有選項。目前，管理層有120天時間來向法院提交重組計劃，法院還可以將該期限額外延長18個月。因此，就算將來有任何交易，那也還是很遙遠的事情。最大的可能性是，美國航空浴火重生，維持獨立航空公司的地位，同時資產負債狀況也會顯著改善。一旦理清頭緒，美國航空或許還能召集銀行家來按照自己的條件做筆交易。

????譯者：小宇

????Airlines have made money by controlling their costs and seeking additional revenue. Fees for bags, food, seat assignments and even for the cost of calling to book a ticket have helped keep many airlines in the black recently. Those fees have been instituted throughout the airline system and seem to have little to do with the consolidation craze.

????To be fair, there are some initial benefits to combining operations. Merging headquarters and slashing management costs does help the surviving airline, although it can be limited. For example, United has had to hike the pay of Continental employees by 20% to 30% to entice them to move up to Chicago from Houston, a person close to the company told Fortune. The bizarre reason to remain headquartered in such an expensive city, even with tax breaks, shows that airline mergers aren't always rational.

????An American combination with US Airways seems to be an especially irrational choice. Its attempts to grow its international business have been marginal at best as it operates from hubs like Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Philadelphia and Phoenix. American's network is far superior and its creditors know that. US Airways would therefore need to offer a lot of cash to sweeten any deal, something it doesn't have.

????A pairing with Delta on the surface seems like a more rational choice, but there are a few major obstacles that sour the deal. First, the merger could create an antitrust issue as the two overlap in 65 nonstop domestic city-pairs. United Airlines and Continental only shared 14 domestic city-pairs when they proposed their merger, while Delta and Northwest shared even less at 12 city-pairs. That's important as antitrust regulators tend to look at city-pair concentration as opposed to overall market concentration.

????On the international front, a Delta-American deal would upset the carefully balanced frequent flyer alliance system, since they are both the U.S. anchors for their respective alliances, Sky Team and One World. If one leaves to join the other it could be a big hit to passenger volume.

????And the connections that the two have with their respective European frequent flyer anchor airlines go beyond the typical partner arrangement as both have attained antitrust immunity over the Atlantic. American is effectively able to legally collude with British Airways on the lucrative New York to London route, while Delta is able to legally collude with Air France/KLM on the equally lucrative New York to Paris route. It's unclear if those contracts would continue after a merger.

????In the end it will be American's creditors that will decide the company's fate. Of the nine members on the unsecured creditors committee, three belong to labor unions. The unions will likely move against management of they cut too much. But given that the cost structures at Delta and US Airways are lower, it seems unlikely that a merger would solve their money worries.

????American's decision to go bankrupt with $4 billion in cash in the bank has given it enough time to weigh all its options. For now, management has 120 days to present a plan of reorganization to the court. A judge could extend that period out by an additional 18 months, so a deal, if any, is still a ways away. American will most likely emerge as an independent airline with a much stronger balance sheet. Once all cleaned up, it may be American calling the bankers to do a deal on their terms.