????紐約證券交易所（New York Stock Exchange）與德國(guó)證交所（Deutsche Boerse）的超大規(guī)模合并價(jià)值高達(dá)170億美元。雖然該交易似乎已經(jīng)胎死腹中，但其實(shí)仍然一息尚存。這兩家證交所官員還有不到三周的時(shí)間，來(lái)說(shuō)服歐盟高層，承諾合并后的證交所不會(huì)像反壟斷的技術(shù)官員們所擔(dān)憂的那樣，帶來(lái)壟斷威脅。如果兩家證交所有意采取一些政治手段，繼續(xù)對(duì)其最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手——大型銀行——施壓，那么此次交易仍有起死回生的希望。

????說(shuō)服美國(guó)和歐洲的管理者接受史上規(guī)模最大的交易所合并絕非易事。但一年前，在紐約證交所與德國(guó)證交所宣布合并之前，兩家公司的高管就成功地淡化了監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。他們相信，大洋兩岸的政府官員們最終會(huì)認(rèn)識(shí)到，證券交易所日益全球化，不能再只局限于某些特定的行業(yè)領(lǐng)域。紐約證交所信心滿滿地認(rèn)為，交易肯定能夠通過(guò)監(jiān)管審查，它甚至成功擊退了美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手芝加哥商業(yè)交易所（CME Group）和洲際交易所（IntercontinentalExchange）更具吸引力的收購(gòu)要約。

????然而事與愿違，雖然美國(guó)的反壟斷官員忍住了心頭的民族主義自豪感，在12月份批準(zhǔn)了兩家公司的合并計(jì)劃，但歐洲的相關(guān)官員仍然反對(duì)這筆交易。周三，紐約證交所首席執(zhí)行官鄧肯?尼德奧爾在發(fā)給員工的視頻中稱，歐洲反壟斷官員將建議歐洲各國(guó)部長(zhǎng)阻止此次合并。尼德奧爾表示，歐洲的反壟斷官員根本不了解證券交易領(lǐng)域的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)形勢(shì)，并稱紐約證交所將歐洲反壟斷官員的決定斗爭(zhēng)到底。

????雖然歐洲反壟斷部門(mén)的意見(jiàn)沒(méi)有約束力，但卻對(duì)最終批準(zhǔn)合并的歐盟執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)具有重大影響。歐洲的反壟斷部門(mén)不能接受這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即合并后的證交所將控制歐洲交易所交易衍生產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)93%的份額。證交所官員拒絕為了滿足監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的要求而拆分其衍生產(chǎn)品部門(mén)，因?yàn)榇伺e將抹殺合并帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。雖然他們同意放棄股票衍生產(chǎn)品業(yè)務(wù)，并保證合并后的三年內(nèi)歐洲衍生產(chǎn)品交易的相關(guān)費(fèi)用維持不變。但這些還不夠。

????這筆交易看起來(lái)似乎無(wú)望，但仍有挽回的余地。之前曾經(jīng)有過(guò)少數(shù)個(gè)案，歐盟執(zhí)行委員會(huì)并未理睬反壟斷部門(mén)的建議，而是開(kāi)了綠燈。例如，1997年波音公司（Boeing）收購(gòu)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手麥道公司（MacDonnell Douglas），以及2010年甲骨文公司（Oracle）收購(gòu)太陽(yáng)微系統(tǒng)公司（Sun Microsystems）。

????為了進(jìn)行最后一搏，紐約證交所與德國(guó)證交所還有多種方式可以選擇。2月1日，歐盟執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)將召開(kāi)會(huì)議，討論這宗交易。屆時(shí)，他們需要爭(zhēng)取幾位歐盟部長(zhǎng)，針對(duì)反壟斷部門(mén)的意見(jiàn)投出反對(duì)票。會(huì)議召開(kāi)之前，兩家證交所需要抓緊時(shí)間游說(shuō)每位部長(zhǎng)。

????與許多關(guān)注該項(xiàng)交易的分析師的觀點(diǎn)一致，兩家證交所都認(rèn)為合并后的證交所無(wú)法實(shí)際控制歐洲的衍生產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)。原因在于，歐洲的衍生產(chǎn)品交易中，有85%實(shí)際上是場(chǎng)外交易。所以，盡管合并后的新證交所將控制歐洲衍生產(chǎn)品交易所93%的交易份額，但如果算上場(chǎng)外交易，它在衍生產(chǎn)品總體市場(chǎng)所占比重僅為15%。

????The $17 billion mega merger between the New York Stock Exchange and Germany's Deutsche Boerse may look dead, but there's still a pulse. Company officials have just under three weeks to convince top leaders in the European Union that the combined company won't be the monopolistic menace that anti-trust technocrats fear. The company could possibly revive this deal if it is willing to play a bit of politics and go on the offensive against its largest competitors: the big banks.

????Selling the largest exchange merger in history to regulators in the U.S. and Europe was never going to be easy, but the NYSE and Deutsche Boerse executives managed to downplay the regulatory risk when they announced their deal nearly a year ago. They believed officials on both sides of the Atlantic would recognize that the exchange industry had gone global, making concentrations in certain business lines irrelevant. The NYSE was so confident that the deal would pass regulatory scrutiny that it even successfully fought off a stronger bid for the company from U.S. rivals the CME Group (CME) and the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE).

????But things didn't go as planned. While U.S. antitrust officials swallowed their nationalist pride and approved the merger in December, their European counterparts remained hostile. On Wednesday, Duncan Niederauer, the chief executive of the NYSE (NYX), told employees in a video message that European antitrust officials were going to advise European ministers to block the merger. Niederauer said that the antitrust officials didn't understand the competitive landscape of the exchange space and that the company would fight the decision.

????The European antitrust office's opinion is non-binding, but it does carry significant weight with the EU executive body, who ultimately approves mergers. The antitrust office just could not get over the fact that the combined company would control 93% of the exchange traded derivatives market in Europe. Company officials refused to spin off their derivatives units to appease regulators as it would erase the economic benefits of the merger. They agreed to offload their equity derivative business and freeze their fees associated with European derivative trades for three years following the merger. But that wasn't enough.

????The case may seem hopeless, but not all is lost. There have been a few rare cases where the executive committee disregards the recommendations of the antitrust unit and allows a merger to go through. Some examples include Boeing's 1997 acquisition of rival MacDonnell Douglas and Oracle's 2010 acquisition of Sun Microsystems.

????There are a few ways that the NYSE and Deutsche Boerse can play this last round. They will need to get several of the EU ministers to raise objections to the antitrust unit's recommendations when the EU executive body meets to consider the deal on February 1. The company will need to quickly present its side of the argument to each of the ministers before that meeting.

????They argue, as do many analysts that follow the exchanges, that the combined company won't actually control the derivatives market in Europe. That's because 85% of derivatives trading in Europe is actually done off exchange in the over-the-counter market. So while it is true that the combined company would control 93% of exchange-traded European derivatives, those only add up to 15% of the total derivatives market when factoring in all those OTC trades.