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巴基斯坦前總理:我們有能力重建經濟

巴基斯坦前總理:我們有能力重建經濟

Ken Stier 2012-01-13
巴基斯坦前總理及前財長肖卡特?阿齊茲對該國經濟復蘇寄予厚望,但這可能有賴于阿富汗如何實現重建。

你說過如果巴基斯坦能和美國達成自由貿易協議,而非援助協定,巴基斯坦的狀況會更好,但從美巴關系現狀來看,這似乎不太可能。

????我對達成自由貿易協定可不樂觀。當初美國國會非常友好的時候,他們也沒能推動相關議案獲得通過,其中甚至包括已經承諾會批準的議案,比如在阿富汗和巴基斯坦邊境地區設立重建機會區(Reconstruction Opportunity Zones)的議案。它對這三個國家都非常重要,設想是允許部落地區生產的所有商品都能免征關稅,進入美國市場。顯然在這個地區開設工廠的生產成本會很高,至少剛開始是這樣,因為那里根本沒有基礎設施可言。這個議案的構想和設計都不錯,能夠創造就業機會。否則,當地人絕沒有動力放下手里的槍。美國國會已針對海地、約旦,可能還有其他國家,批準了類似的特別市場準入計劃。五、六年前美國就已(對巴基斯坦)作出承諾,但時至今日仍然沒有任何動靜。

????我們確實需要重新考慮這些事情,以便地區(特別是邊境地區)重歸和平時人們能找到其他的謀生手段。安全并不是大問題。本地人自己就可以實現地區安全。同樣也沒有必要引進外商;這一地區現有的企業家群體已經最夠龐大。我們討論的是紡織市場微乎其微的份額,但它具有很重要的象征意義,因為它能給予人們希望。藉此美國政府和美國國會可以向邊境地區人民傳遞出這樣一個信息:我們希望你們擁有一個更美好、更安寧的未來。

You've said that Pakistan would be better off with a free trade agreement with the U.S., instead of aid, but given the state of US-Pakistan relations that seems very unlikely.

????I'm not optimistic about a free trade agreement because even when Congress was very friendly, they couldn't get things through, even things which were promised like the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones in the border area of Afghanistan and Pakistan, which was important for all three countries. The idea was to give duty-free access to the U.S. market for any goods produced in the tribal areas. Obviously when you put up a factory there the cost of production will be high, initially at least, because there is no infrastructure. This was a well-conceived and well-designed way of creating jobs. Otherwise they will have no incentive to put down their guns. Congress has approved other special market access programs like this for Haiti and Jordan, and maybe others. It was promised by the U.S. five or six years ago but nothing happened.

????We really need to re-focus on these things so that when peace returns in the area, especially in the border areas, people will have alternatives for making a living. Security is not a big issue. It can be done by local people. You don't need expatriates; there are already plenty of entrepreneurs in that area. You're talking about very small numbers for the textile market, but symbolically it's very important because it will give people hope. This would be a good way for the U.S. government and Congress to send a message to people in the border areas: we want you to have a better, peaceful future.

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