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初創企業盈利掛帥對不對

初創企業盈利掛帥對不對

Mark Suster 2012-01-11
初創企業必須在盈利和成長之間作出取舍。如果不把今天的盈利投資到明天的成長上,當然可以推高利潤。同理,如果要維持高速的發展,必然需要把今天的一部分利潤投資到擴大再生產,謀求明天的發展壯大。

營業收入辨真偽

????但這不是光看看營收數字那么簡單。以下圖為例,可以看到雖然兩家公司每年的營收額都一樣,但由于公司1銷售成本遠遠低于公司2,前者的毛利潤率要遠高于后者。

Revenue is not revenue is not revenue

????But it's not as simple as just looking at revenue in dollar terms. For example, look at the following graph. You'll notice that although both companies have the same revenue every year, Company 1 has MUCH higher gross margins than Company 2 because the cost of sales (COGS) is much lower.

"COGS"

????銷售成本反映的是每筆銷售產生的成本。比方說,如果是通過第三方經銷商銷售產品,后者抽取30%的銷售傭金,那么你的銷售成本將是營收的30%(假定沒有其他銷售成本)。

????上圖事實上比較典型。公司1代表一家普通的軟件公司,產品采用直銷模式(由銷售代表銷售或直接在網上銷售)。很多軟件公司的毛利潤率都高達85-90%,這也是為什么軟件行業多年來一直熱度不減。

????公司2可能代表一家“廣告中介公司”,負責在出版商網站上發布廣告,賺取廣告網絡支付的費用,再將其中的85%支付給出版商。這是典型的“中介公司”模式,通常收取銷售額15-30%的傭金。

????它也可能是一家旅行網站,通過銷售機票賺取傭金。

????公司都喜歡看到高額的營收數字,但這個數字可能具有誤導性。試想,假如賣了5億美元的美國聯合航空公司(United Airline)機票,這可不全是你的營業收入,你的營業收入只是你獲得的7,500萬美元訂票傭金。

????它也可能是一家電子商務網站或“秒殺”網站,記錄來自客戶的營業收入,但接下來必須將一大部分銷售收入支付給服裝生產商。許多電子商務公司事實上是中間人。毛利潤率介于15-40%之間不等。

????我知道你在搖頭,心里不以為然,但我敢保證,即使是我認識的一些最精明的人也會在“毛收入”和“凈收入”問題上犯糊涂。我從“秒殺”網站的成長中親眼目睹了這一點。

????人們總是說,

????“X公司的營業收入已經達到了1億美元!哇!了不起的增長!”

????不是這么回事。

????“X公司的毛收入為1億美元,但利潤率僅為12%,這意味著大部分收入反映的是商品貨值。但這些公司很多在一開始甚至都不擁有商品實物。因此,事實上X公司的營業收入是1,200萬美元。”這樣的營業收入額本身也很不錯,但與1億美元有本質的區別。”

????"COGS" represents the amount that each sale costs you. For example, if you sell your product through a third-party reseller who charges 30% of any sale then your COGS will be 30% of revenue (assuming no other costs of sales).

????The example chart is not actually atypical. The first company represents a normal software company that sells its products directly (either via sales staff or directly off of the internet). Many software companies have 85-90% gross margins, which is why it has historically been a very attractive industry.

????Company 2 might represent an "ad mediation company" where the company gets paid by ad networks for running ads on publisher websites and the company in turn must pay the publisher 85% of the revenue it collects. This is not atypical for "middle men" who often take 15-30% of the value of the sale.

??? This could also be a travel website who gets paid a bounty for selling airline travel.

????Companies like to have high numbers in their revenue column but this can be quite misleading. After all, if you sell $500 million of United Airline tickets that isn't really YOUR revenue. Your revenue is the $75 million you got paid in booking fees.

????It could be an eCommerce website or "flash sale" where they are booking revenue from customers but then having to pay out a high percentage of the sale to the clothing manufacturer. Many eCommerce companies are in fact, middle men. Gross margins can range from 15-40%.

????I know you're shaking your head and thinking, "duh" but I promise you that even some of the most sophisticated people I know get off track on this issue of "gross revenue" versus "net revenue." I saw this first hand with the growth of the "flash sale" category.

??? People kept saying,

????"Company X is already doing $100 million in revenue! Wow! Amazing growth!"

????Um, no,

????"Company X is doing $100 million in gross revenue but is only at 12% margins which means the majority of the value is in the goods. Many of these companies aren't even taking physical possession of the goods in the early days. So they are really doing $12 million in "revenue." That in and of itself is an achievement. But it's very different than $100 million in year years."

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