殘酷的現實

????直到上周之前，銀行業分析師們還在憧憬著華爾街第四季度業績強勁。但這些樂觀的預期不得不讓位于殘酷的現實，因為2011年最后三個月顯然沒什么業務，特別是12月份。盈利預期大幅下調。舉例來說，上周五投資公司Sanford Bernstein的布拉德?辛茨將高盛（Goldman Sachs）的每股收益預期從3.15美元降至77美分，將摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的每股收益預期從虧損19美分降至虧損75美分。上周，其他一些分析師也下調了盈利預期，幅度同樣巨大，降幅最大的是那些收入倚重投資銀行和交易業務的華爾街銀行。

????但高盛和摩根這兩家大型經紀交易商由于不得不遵從新的銀行業監管法規，遭受的打擊尤其沉重。過去十年高盛靠自營交易曾獲利數十億美元，但由于在金融危機期間它已轉變為一家銀行控股公司，高盛不得不逐步撤出風險性業務。高盛交易部門的風險價值（VAR）2011年第三季度下降，導致該行出現上市以來第二個季度虧損。雖然普遍預計高盛憑借債券承銷業務2011年第四季度能實現微利，但有形權益回報率預計將不到5%，慘淡經營。

????由于公司利潤大幅下降，高盛員工們估計今年的獎金也會縮水。雖然這些員工還不至于餓死，但他們可能會開始考慮過去一年那些不眠之夜的付出是否值得。和摩根士丹利一樣，高盛也在實行增效計劃以提高利潤率，目標是削減14億美元成本。這相當于公司2011年運營費用的3-6%左右。削減費用固然有助于提高利潤率，但不會增加公司收入。

????與此同時，市場普遍預計摩根士丹利將宣布2011年第四季度大幅虧損，部分是因為一筆高達18億美元的一次性司法和解支出。由于公司債利差的變化，摩根士丹利預計還將公布第四季度公司債出現會計損失。

????像高盛一樣，摩根士丹利的利潤也隨著壓縮交易業務而大幅下降，這部分業務過去一直是它重要的利潤來源。摩根士丹利也計劃削減約14億美元成本，包括裁減約1,600名員工，約占員工總數的3%。

????但與高盛不同，摩根士丹利最近一直在忙著再造自我，試圖從內部實現提升。它正在大力發展財富管理和固定收益做市商業務，希望藉此實現利潤來源多元化。雖然這兩塊業務的利潤率相對低，摩根士丹利希望能通過規模效益帶來足夠多的資金。與此同時，公司需要支付與轉型相關的直接和非直接成本，這也對公司第四季度的業績產生了負面影響。

A new reality

????Up until last week bank analysts had modeled a strong quarter for Wall Street. But those upbeat expectations succumbed to reality once it became clear that there wasn't much business going on in the last three months of the year, especially in December. The cuts in expectations were drastic. For example, Sanford Bernstein's Brad Hintz on Friday slashed his earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs (GS) from $3.15 a share to 77 cents a share and its estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS) from a loss of 19 cents a share to a loss of 75 cents a share. Equally large cuts were seen by other analysts last week, with the largest cuts centered on banks that derive a large portion of their income from investment banking and trading.

????But the big broker dealers, Goldman and Morgan, seem to be the hardest hit, as they've had to comply with new banking regulations. Goldman made billions of dollars trading its own account over the last decade, but since it became a bank holding company during the financial crisis, it's been forced to pull back on risk-taking activities. The value at risk, or VAR, on Goldman's trading desks, was down in the third quarter, contributing to the bank's second-ever quarterly loss as a public company. While Goldman is largely expected to make a meager profit in the fourth quarter, thanks to its debt underwriting shop, its return on tangible equity, an efficiency ratio, is slated to come in under 5%, a dismal showing.

????Goldman employees are bracing for smaller bonuses this year as the firm's profit pie shrinks dramatically. While the bank's employees won't starve, they will probably start to wonder if all those sleepless nights last year were worth it. Goldman, along with Morgan Stanley, is implementing efficiency programs to boost profit margins, targeting $1.4 billion in cost cuts. That's equal to around 3% to 6% of the firms' 2011 operating expenses. But while cutting expenses does help profit margins, it won't grow revenue.

????Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is largely expected to report a steep loss in the fourth quarter, due in part to a one-time, $1.8 billion legal settlement. The bank is also expected to report an accounting loss for the quarter on its debt due to a shift in credit spreads.

????Like Goldman, Morgan Stanley's profit has been hit hard as it dialed back the risk on its trading desks, eliminating what had been a major profit center at the bank. It is also targeting around $1.4 billion in cost cuts, including the elimination of some 1,600 jobs, which is around 3% of its workforce.

????But unlike Goldman, Morgan Stanley has been busy trying to reinvent itself from within. It is aggressively growing its wealth management and fixed income market making businesses in an attempt to diversify its earnings streams. While both are relatively low margin businesses, the firm is hoping that it will generate enough money through scale. In the meantime, the direct and indirect costs associated with the transition will need to be paid, negatively impacting the firm's fourth quarter results.