????近來(lái)圍繞美國(guó)航空母艦?zāi)芊癯霈F(xiàn)在伊朗石油出口要道——霍爾木茲海峽這一問(wèn)題，美伊兩國(guó)軍事領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人劍拔弩張的態(tài)勢(shì)持續(xù)升溫。兩國(guó)敵對(duì)情緒升級(jí)引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂推動(dòng)本周二油價(jià)和金價(jià)大漲，但就目前而言這些擔(dān)心有些過(guò)頭了。美國(guó)加強(qiáng)了對(duì)伊朗的制裁，劍指伊朗央行，勒緊了套在伊朗政府脖子上的繩索，但尚未阻斷其呼吸。而伊朗方面，只要資金能持續(xù)流入，伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也肯定不會(huì)觸碰底線。

????航母之爭(zhēng)只是美伊復(fù)雜棋局的最新動(dòng)態(tài)。美國(guó)旨在削弱伊朗，但每一步棋最終都被狡猾的伊朗政府成功化解。兩國(guó)政府和軍方官員的針尖對(duì)麥芒不僅讓事態(tài)復(fù)雜化，也嚇壞了全球石油市場(chǎng)，但最終伊朗的石油總是能以某種方式運(yùn)出國(guó)境，流入全球市場(chǎng)。

????伊朗長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直在研制核武器，美國(guó)及其盟友近期加大對(duì)伊朗的制裁力度與此不無(wú)關(guān)系。過(guò)去兩個(gè)月，英國(guó)和美國(guó)都已下令禁止任何與伊朗央行有業(yè)務(wù)往來(lái)的公司在英國(guó)或美國(guó)境內(nèi)開展任何業(yè)務(wù)。歐盟預(yù)計(jì)將于本月批準(zhǔn)類似的措施，而且周三有報(bào)道稱，歐盟已同意對(duì)伊朗石油實(shí)施禁運(yùn)。

????雖然這些舉措讓伊朗的石油出口前景變得復(fù)雜，但完全切斷其出口的可能性很小。全世界的銀行機(jī)構(gòu)太多了，它們子公司的子公司肯定能為伊朗的石油貿(mào)易提供便利。瑞士、印度和中國(guó)的銀行將非常樂意幫助伊朗央行完成現(xiàn)金收賬。伊朗央行也可以同國(guó)際性銀行進(jìn)行以物易物的交易。兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間美國(guó)對(duì)伊朗銀行體系實(shí)施類似制裁時(shí)，伊朗就采取過(guò)類似的做法。

????至于歐洲的伊朗石油禁運(yùn)措施，只要未參與禁運(yùn)的進(jìn)口國(guó)石油需求超過(guò)伊朗每天400萬(wàn)桶的產(chǎn)能，伊朗石油就不愁銷路。伊朗石油的互換性較好，且輕油、重油都有，因此大多數(shù)煉油廠只需略作調(diào)整就可以將伊朗石油加工成汽油、取暖油等精煉油。伊朗歷來(lái)出口至歐盟（主要是西班牙和意大利）的石油數(shù)量較為有限，禁運(yùn)實(shí)施后這部分石油可能最終會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)而流向中國(guó)或其他未參與禁運(yùn)的亞洲國(guó)家。雖然這一改變短期內(nèi)會(huì)擾動(dòng)全球石油市場(chǎng)，但隨著這些石油重新獲得分配，問(wèn)題最終將得以解決。

伊朗里亞爾暴跌

????伊朗軍方的好戰(zhàn)言論在國(guó)內(nèi)造成了一個(gè)意想不到的后果。伊朗官方貨幣里亞爾兌美元匯率上個(gè)月狂跌近40%，至1美元兌1.8萬(wàn)里亞爾左右。伊朗央行受到制裁以及伊朗和美國(guó)可能爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，促使伊朗人爭(zhēng)相買進(jìn)美元，以免遭受里亞爾貶值沖擊。上個(gè)周末，里亞爾跌了10%，銀行和美元兌換店門口都排起了長(zhǎng)隊(duì)。

????Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Iran's military leaders over the presence of Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for the country's oil exports. Fears of imminent hostilities caused oil and gold to spike on Tuesday, but right now those fears look overblown. Beefed up sanctions by the U.S. targeting Iran's central bank have tightened the noose around the government's neck, but have hardly choked off the government's air supply. As long as money keeps flowing into Iran, the country's leaders will make sure to not cross the line.

????This is the latest move in a complicated chess game between the U.S. and Iran. Each move made by the U.S. to undercut Iran is eventually countered somewhat successfully by the wily Iranian government. Hostile puffery by state apparatchiks and military officials from both sides tends to complicate matters and spook world oil markets, but at the end of the day, Iranian oil always somehow manages to flow out of the country and into the world market.

????The latest drama revolves around beefed up sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies over Iran's long-running pursuit of nuclear weapons. In the last two months, both the United Kingdom and the U.S. pushed though mandates barring any company that deals with Iran's central bank from conducting any business in their respective nations. The European Union is expected to pass a similar measure this month and today has reportedly agreed to ban all Iranian oil imports.

????But while this would complicate Iran's ability to sell oil, it will hardly kill it. There are enough banking institutions around the world with subsidiaries of subsidiaries that will facilitate the Iranian oil trade. Banks in Switzerland, India and China would be more than happy to help the Iranian central bank collect its cash. Iran's central bank could also engage in barter transactions with international banks, similar to what it did during the Iran-Iraq war when the U.S. imposed similar sanctions on Iran's banking system.

????As for the potential European embargo, as long as oil demand from importing nations outside the embargo exceeds Iran's 4 million barrel a day production capacity, there will always be a home for Iranian oil. Iran's oil is relatively fungible, with both light and heavy grades, so it could run through most refineries with limited adjustments necessary to be processed into refined products, like gasoline and heating fuel. The limited amount of oil that Iran did export to the EU, mostly to Spain and Italy, will eventually be diverted to China or to another Asian country not participating in the embargo. While this change will have a destabilizing effect on the world oil market in the short run as the barrels get switched around, it will eventually work itself out.

Currency crash

????But the bellicose comments out of the Iranian military have had an unintended consequence at home. The value of the Iranian rial has collapsed around 40% to the dollar in the last month to around 1800 rials to $1. The cutoff of the central bank, coupled with the possibility of war with the U.S., caused Iranians to rush out and buy dollars as a hedge to the rial. The rial lost 10% of its value over the weekend as lines formed at banks and in front of the homes of money changers that deal in dollars.