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2012汽車業的異想世界

2012汽車業的異想世界

ALEX TAYLOR 2012-01-05
讀者諸君大可以保留自己對汽車業走向的判斷,認為一切將回歸常態。本文提供的只是一些有趣的奇思妙想,僅供茶余飯后一樂。

辭舊迎新

????終于平平安安地熬過了2011年,這讓各大汽車廠商頗感慶幸。在失業率居高不下且經濟面臨二次衰退的艱難局面下,據專業汽車雜志Wards Automotive報道,各大汽車廠商的轎車和卡車總銷量只有大約1,250萬臺,比預計少了100萬輛之多。

????對各大公司來說,馬基奧尼的魔法(Marchionne magic)在克萊斯勒(Chrysler)確實奏效了,但菲亞特500(Fiat 500)的表現卻不盡如人意。自然災害和強勁的日元則讓日本汽車廠商深受其苦。本田(Honda)想自欺欺人地告訴自己2011年壓根就不存在,而薩博(Saab)則沒法活著看到2012年了。

????未來一年的光景到底會如何呢?我們能告訴你的就是,底特律三巨頭將會繼續回歸之旅,日本廠商將恢復元氣,而當經濟迎來復蘇后,經銷商手里的車將被一搶而空。不過這幅景象也夠沒勁的。也許我們圣誕假期時喝了太多蛋酒,也許是因為已到了年末最后一周,《財富》雜志(Fortune)的工作節奏有所放緩,但我們不妨假設一下,有一顆彗星將穿過太陽系,將時空扭曲成了另一種虛擬現實,從而在汽車界創造了如下一系列我們希望看到的預言:

日產掌門棄商從政

????雷諾-日產公司(Renault-Nissan)的首席執行官卡洛斯?高森再度調高了他對電動汽車的銷量預測。隨后他便辭了職,跑去掌管歐洲央行(the European Central Bank),并一手主持了意大利的破產。不過,他扔給日產公司的繼任者一大難題——向大家解釋一下,為什么由電池驅動的聆風(Leaf)在前大燈、音響系統、空調和雨刮同時打開時,就只能跑上300碼了?

Good-bye and hello

????Automakers will be glad to escape 2011 mostly intact. With high unemployment and the threat of a double-dip recession hanging over the market, they sold only about 12.5 million cars and trucks, according to Wards Automotive -- as many as one million units less than forecast.

????For companies, the Marchionne magic worked wonders at Chrysler, but it wasn't enough to fill driveways with the Fiat 500. Japanese automakers were beset by natural disasters and a strong yen. Honda would like to pretend 2011 never happened, and Saab won't get to see 2012.

????What will the coming year look like? We could tell you that the Detroit Three will continue their comeback, Japan will get back on its feet, and dealer lots will empty out as the economy gets back on track. But that's pretty ho-hum. Maybe we had a little too much eggnog over the holidays, or maybe it's just a little slow at Fortune in this last week of the year, but let's pretend a comet will pass through the solar system, bending the space-time continuum into an alternate reality for the world's automakers, creating a list of predictions we'd like to see.

Executives

????Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn raises his forecast for electric vehicle sales once again. Then he quits to run the European Central Bank and preside over the bankruptcy of Italy, leaving to his successor the job of explaining why the range of the battery-powered Leaf drops to 300 yards when the headlights, audio system, air conditioner, and windshield wipers are all operating at once.

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