薩拉?佩林有望角逐總統寶座

????每個人都愿意相信市場是有效的，能自動篩除錯誤信息和偏差，形成公允的價格。但2010年12月底，著名政治期貨公司InTrade的數據顯示，佩林獲得共和黨總統候選人提名的概率高于20%，結果證明這一次市場實在是錯得太離譜了。雖然InTrade素以準確預測總統大選等事件的最終贏家而聞名，但一年后的今天，佩林獲得提名的概率已降至僅0.4%（雖然她近日聲稱其他獲提名者要加入角逐“還不是太晚”）。

????2010年，佩林獲得提名的概率一度接近30%的高點，盡管此后這個數字大幅下降，但交易員們當時依然相信暢銷書作者、政治專家佩林【據報道，她與福克斯新聞頻道（Fox News Channel）的電視合同每年可進賬100萬美元】很有可能獲得共和黨總統候選人提名。頂著“茶黨女王”的光環，佩林賺了個盆滿缽滿，人們真地以為她會競選總統嗎？如今，InTrade的交易員們又押注前馬薩諸塞州州長羅姆尼, 羅姆尼獲得共和黨總統候選人提名的概率已升至74%。

Sarah Palin for Republican nominee

????Everyone likes to think the market is efficient, ferreting out misinformation and biases to create a fair price. So how wrong was the prediction market late last December that put Sarah Palin's odds at winning the Republican presidential nomination at better than one in five? Those odds come via InTrade, the market known for accurately picking winners of presidential elections and other events. It was so wrong that today her odds of getting the nod sit at a mere 0.4% (despite her recent proclamation that "it's not too late" for other nominees to enter the race).

????Even after her chances plummeted from highs near 30% in 2010, traders still believed that Palin, the best-selling author and political pundit who reportedly earns $1 million annually from her Fox News Channel television contract, had a strong shot at earning Republicans' nomination. But with the riches Palin makes as a Tea Party darling, did people really think she'd run? Today the InTrade traders are betting on Romney, whose odds of winning the Republican nomination have risen to 74%.