????“每個產品的油漆都需要經過三次檢驗，第一次是檢驗原材料，第二次是檢驗成品，然后客戶自己還會再進行一次檢驗，”楊春梅說。培訓、設備升級、采購新材料和多項測試等方面的開支已經將企業的經營成本推高了10%到15%。

????政府統計數據為楊春梅的說法提供了佐證。2011年上半年，中國玩具出口同比增長了31.5％，這主要應歸功于亞洲和拉丁美洲的需求拉動。但中國玩具的出口值只增長了11.54％。

美國廉價玩具難以為繼

????盡管中國政府一直積極回應美國新的安全要求，但他們也認為美國的反應過度，在中國官員看來，這是美方為應對國內就業壓力而設置的一項技術貿易壁壘。“每當我們升級設備，改善安全標準，并滿足了他們的要求之后，美國和歐盟就再次提高門檻。生產成本不斷上升，嚴重傷害了中國出口行業，”國家標準化管理委員會（China's Standardization Administration）副主任方向在接受中央人民廣播電臺（China National Radio）采訪時說。“我認為這些貿易壁壘不會保護美國人的就業機會，反而會傷害美國消費者的利益。”

????雖然全球玩具制造商都受到美國規則的影響，但世界80%的玩具源自中國。中國目前有2萬家玩具制造商，雇傭了400多萬名工人。

????中國市場研究集團（China Market Research Group）（總部位于上海）項目運營經理本杰明?卡文德爾認為，中國玩具行業在來年有可能重新洗牌。他說：“資金雄厚的大型專業公司將開始收購其他步履維艱的公司。”

????定價壓力最終將擠壓美國零售商和玩具制造商的盈利空間。“我們過去一直實行低價策略，是因為加價意味著失去客戶，”楊春梅說。“但現在我們實在扛不住了，要么提價，要么拒絕訂單。”

????因此，從中國制造商那里采購貨物的美國品牌將不得不減少自身的利潤，以維持生產。盡管這有可能導致一些生產環節重返美國，但卡文德爾強調指出：“大部分制造環節十有八九還會留在中國或亞洲其他國家。”

????迄今為止，美國消費者一直受惠于價格低廉的中國玩具。玩具產業協會（the Toy Industry Association）的數據顯示，過去幾年間，玩具的平均價格一直保持相對穩定，大約在8美元左右。但幾乎沒有人相信這種局面將延續下去。無論新法規是保護孩子的必要措施，還是反應過度，最終為此買單的將是美國消費者。

????譯者：任文科

????"For the paint on each product, we do three tests - a test on the raw materials, another on the finished product and then the client will conduct their own test," Yang says, adding that costs for training, equipment upgrades, sourcing new materials and multiple testing have added 10% to 15% to her operating costs.

????Government statistics support Yang's claims. In the first half of 2011, toy exports rose by 31.5% year-over-year, mostly driven by demand in Asia and Latin America. But their export value rose only 11.54%.

U.S. prices

????Even though the Chinese government has been responsive to the new U.S. safety requirements, they also see it as an overreaction and a technical trade barrier in response to pressure to create more jobs in America. "Each time after we upgrade and improve our safety standards and meet their requirements, the U.S. and EU raise the bar again. The cost keeps going up and seriously harms China's toy export business," said Fang Xiang, deputy director of China's Standardization Administration during an interview with China National Radio. "I don't think these trade barriers will save any American jobs. Instead, they'll hurt American consumers."

????Although the U.S. rules impact toymakers globally, more than 80% of the toys sold around the world come from China. At present, there are 20,000 toy manufacturers in China, employing more than four million people.

????Benjamin Cavender, associate principal at the Shanghai-based China Market Research Group believes this will lead to consolidation in China in the coming year. "Big professional companies with deeper pockets will start to buy up other companies as they falter," he says.

????The pricing pressures will eventually pinch the profits of U.S. retailers and toymakers. "In the past, we kept our prices low because any increase would mean losing the customers," Yang says. "But now, we really can't afford it. We have to raise prices or turn down our orders."

????As a consequence, U.S. brands that are sourcing from manufacturers in China will have to reduce their own margins in order to maintain production. While this will likely lead to some manufacturing returning to the U.S., Cavender emphasizes that "in all likelihood the bulk of manufacturing is still going to come out of China or other Asian countries."

????So far, Americans consumers have benefited from the low prices of Chinese toys. According to the Toy Industry Association, the average price of toys has remained relative steady over the past few years, at around $8. But few believe this will last. Whether the new regulations are necessary safeguards to protect children or an overreaction, American consumers will eventually have to bear the cost.