????47歲的廣東商人張順林（音譯）一年到頭都在說圣誕節(jié)和感恩節(jié)，但并不了解它們的來歷。他認(rèn)為，感恩節(jié)是“西方人感謝上帝賜福”的宗教節(jié)日，而圣誕節(jié)就像是中國的春節(jié)。

????但他非常清楚這兩個節(jié)日在生意上的重要性。張順林與姐姐和姐夫在廣東省（中國60%的出口玩具都是在這個南方省份制造的）經(jīng)營一家玩具廠和一家批發(fā)商店。他說，這個節(jié)日季節(jié)并沒有帶給他多大的欣喜。源自美國客戶的訂單較去年銳減了25%。他做生意以來第一次拒絕了幾個長期訂單，原因是原材料成本飆漲，而且遵守他所稱的美國“不合理的”法律也大幅提升了經(jīng)營成本。他的姐姐和姐夫明年都不打算干了。

????面臨困境的不止張順林一個人。《廣州日報》（the Guangzhou Daily）最近刊發(fā)的一篇文章認(rèn)為，對于中國玩具制造商而言，這個圣誕節(jié)是“史上最糟糕的”。政府官方的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，第三季度，出口至美國和歐洲的禮品和玩具較去年同期下降了20%，這兩個市場通常占總出口量的一半以上。在2011年的廣交會（Canton Fair 2011）上，來自美國的玩具訂單較去年下降了24%。作為中國最大的貿(mào)易博覽會，廣交會一直扮演著中國出口行業(yè)領(lǐng)頭羊的角色。

????因全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性而出現(xiàn)的需求疲軟、棉花等原材料價格的不斷攀升等等因素當(dāng)然是第三季度玩具市場不景氣的原因。但政府官員和制造商認(rèn)為，人民幣升值以及因遵守美國和歐盟嚴(yán)苛的安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)而產(chǎn)生的高額成本才是加劇玩具行業(yè)困境、迫使許多企業(yè)倒閉的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住?/p>

利潤空間收窄

????中國大多數(shù)玩具廠商都是所謂的“原始設(shè)備制造商（OEM）”，它們生產(chǎn)的出口產(chǎn)品均貼有某家外國公司的標(biāo)簽。江蘇玩具制造商楊春梅（音譯）說，為了保持競爭力，玩具廠商都把利潤率控制在2%到3%這個區(qū)間內(nèi)。她說：“人民幣升值，以及為遵守相關(guān)法規(guī)而導(dǎo)致的額外成本，有可能完全吞掉我們的利潤。”

????楊春梅的工廠專營12種毛絨玩具和玩具車。她說，由于來自美國大型零售商的大宗訂單源源不斷，她的處境要比張順林稍微好一點。然而，跟去年相比，她的利潤已經(jīng)下降了15%以上，部分原因在于，人民幣今年又升值了2.5%。2005年以來，在華盛頓的重壓之下，人民幣已升值了約30%。

????對于中國玩具行業(yè)來說，美國國會于2008年8月份通過的法規(guī)無異于雪上加霜。此前，中國產(chǎn)玩具因油漆含鉛量嚴(yán)重超標(biāo)而導(dǎo)致了數(shù)起召回事件。這項法律要求玩具制造商和供應(yīng)商分三個階段減少兒童（12歲以下）玩具表面涂層的鉛含量，并且要求其產(chǎn)品必須經(jīng)過具備資質(zhì)的獨立實驗室的檢驗和認(rèn)可。

????Zhang Shunlin, a 47-year-old businessman from China's southern province of Guangdong, talks about Christmas and Thanksgiving year round but has no idea of their origins. He thinks Thanksgiving is a religious holiday when "Westerners thank the blessings of God" and Christmas is just like the Chinese New Year.

????But he knows their commercial significance all too well. Zhang operates a toy factory and a wholesale store with his sister and brother-in-law in Guangdong province, where 60% of China's exported toys are made. He says this holiday season has not brought much joy. Orders from his U.S. clients have plummeted 25% from last year. For the first time, he had to decline several long-term orders because of the soaring cost of raw materials and implementing what he calls America's "unreasonable" laws. His sister and brother-in-law are planning to leave the business next year.

????Zhang isn't alone. The Guangzhou Daily recently called this Christmas "the worst" for Chinese toymakers. In the third quarter, the official government statistics show that gifts and toys exported to the U.S. and Europe, which normally make up more than half of the total export volume, fell 20% from last year. At the recent Canton Fair 2011, the largest trade fair in China and a bellwether for China's export volumes, transaction orders in toys from the U.S. decreased by 24% from last year.

????Weak demand from global economic uncertainty and rising prices of raw materials like cotton certainly contributed to a sluggish third quarter. But government officials and manufacturers blame a stronger Chinese currency and the high cost of complying with stringent safety standards imposed by the U.S. and EU for compounding the problems and forcing them out of business.

Profit margin squeeze

????The majority of Chinese toy producers are original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), which make products that are sold abroad under a foreign company's label. In order to stay competitive, they make profit margins as low as 2% to 3%, says Yang Chunmei, a toy manufacturer in the southeast Jiangxu province. "The currency appreciation and any additional costs that have gone into regulatory compliance have the potential to completely wipe out our profits," she says.

????Yang specializes in 12 kinds of plush toys and mini-cars. She says the steady stream of orders from large-volume orders from big U.S. retailers have put her in a slightly better position than Zhang. However, compared with last year, her profits have decreased more than 15% partially because the yuan has gained another 2.5% this year. Since 2005, under pressure from Washington, the yuan has risen about 30%.

????Adding to their troubles are regulations passed by Congress in August 2008, after several recalls of China-made toys containing excessive levels of lead paint. The law requires toy manufacturers and suppliers to reduce in three phases the amount of lead contained in the surface coatings of children's toys (ages 12 and under) and have their products tested and certified in independent, accredited laboratories.