當供應鏈斷裂時
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????美國現在依然能感受到大自然暴怒帶來的影響。俄亥俄州的汽車裝配工人11月份發現，他們工作的時間縮短了，原因是本田公司無法收到來自泰國的零部件（11月下旬，本田公司設法讓這些制造廠重新回到正常的生產水平）。另一方面，在日本發生地震之后，田納西州戴克德市一家通常只為在美國本土銷售的日產轎車（Nissan）制造發動機的工廠，突然不得不提高產量；因為日產公司需要將這家美國工廠生產的發動機發往亞洲，滿足日本和東南亞市場的需求。 ????理所當然，2011年的事件已經迫使眾多制造商開始重新審視其全球基礎設施存在的問題。“近期這些‘黑天鵝事件’，即前所未有的自然災害，已明顯暴露出產業供應鏈的種種漏洞，”供應鏈專家法拉利說。“現在的問題是，我們是否過于追求成本最低化生產和超精益供應鏈，由此導致了嚴重的商業風險？” ????這是一個令CEO特別傷腦筋的重大問題：盈利掛帥的高管們是否做好了準備，撤出低成本供應商和“實時”生產體系，轉而接受一種更傳統的模式——工廠貯存零部件以備不時之需，或者干脆投資建立備用設施？ ????一些公司響亮地作出了肯定的回答。希捷科技公司CEO盧卡佐稱，一些高端公司已經開始要求跟他的公司簽署期限更長的供應合同。 ????分析人士指出，日產公司之所以比日本其他汽車制造商更迅速地恢復元氣，是因為該公司能夠提高其他工廠（包括戴克德市的發動機工廠）的產量。糟糕的是，日產同時也提高了泰國一家工廠的產量，而洪災已經讓這家工廠放緩了生產。2011年初，總部位于羅德島州莊士敦市的法特瑞互助保險公司（FM Global）對600位首席財務官進行了一次調查問卷，了解他們最擔心什么事情會破壞公司的收入來源。他們提到的最多的答案就是，供應鏈瓦解。請注意，這項調查是在日本地震之前進行的。 ????日產公司CEO卡洛斯?戈恩的看法更具哲學意味。“即將發生另一場危機，”11月下旬他在紐約市發表的一次演講中說道。“我們不知道這會是一場什么樣的危機，也不知道它將在何時何地襲擊我們。但每爆發一次危機，我們都會從中獲得某種教益。”如果他所言不虛，危機模式已經成為新的常態，那么真正的成本優勢或許并不屬于供應鏈最靈活的制造商，而屬于供應鏈最穩固的公司。 ????譯者：任文科 |
????The effects of Mother Nature's wrath still are being felt in the U.S. Auto assembly workers in Ohio saw their hours cut in November because Honda (HMC) couldn't get parts from Thailand. (In late November, Honda returned those plants to normal production levels.) On the other hand, a factory in Decherd, Tenn., that normally makes engines for Nissan cars sold only in the U.S. suddenly had to ramp up production after the Japan earthquake; Nissan had the American plant ship engines to Asia for use in cars sold both in Japan and in Southeast Asia. ????Not surprisingly, the events of 2011 have forced many manufacturers to rethink their global infrastructures. "These recent 'Black Swan' or unprecedented natural disaster events have obviously exposed vulnerabilities among industry supply chains," says Ferrari, the supply-chain expert. "The question now is, has the quest for lowest-cost production and hyper-lean supply chains overridden and exposed vulnerability to significant business risk?'' ????It is a big, knotty issue for CEOs: Are bottom-line-oriented executives prepared to pull back from a system of low-cost suppliers and "just in time" manufacturing in favor of a more old-fashioned model that has plants squirreling away components for a rainy day, or, more dramatically, investing in backup facilities? ????For some companies the answer is a resounding yes. Seagate CEO Luczo says sophisticated companies have started asking his company for longer contracts on supply arrangements. ????Analysts say Nissan has bounced back better than other Japanese automakers because it was able to ramp up production at its other plants, including the Decherd facility. (One stroke of bad luck: Nissan also bolstered production at one of its operations in Thailand, which has been slowed by flooding.) FM Global, an insurance company based in Johnston, R.I., surveyed 600 chief financial officers in early 2011 and asked what they feared could derail their companies' revenue drivers. The most frequently cited answer? Supply-chain disruptions. And that survey was taken before the Japan earthquake. ????Carlos Ghosn, the CEO of Nissan, is philosophical. "There's going to be another crisis," he told an audience in New York in late November. "We don't know what kind of crisis, where it is going to hit us, and when it is going to hit us, but every time there is a crisis we are going to learn from it." If he's right, and crisis mode is the new normal, then the real cost advantage may not go to the manufacturer with the nimblest supply chain but the company with the most robust one. |
