石油和海灣之外的故事

????深海區(qū)域只是BP龐大的全球資產(chǎn)的一小部分。盡管犯下這么多錯誤，這家公司還是很難（如果不是毫無可能的話）就此倒下。任何一家石油公司都是這樣，它們不會覺得未來堪憂，原因在于，哪怕它們必須努力找油，但石油這種商品不但利潤極其豐厚，而且需求量還在日益增長。能源管理協(xié)會（Energy Administration Association）發(fā)布的《國際能源展望》預(yù)計，2008年到2035年期間，全球能源消耗量將增長約53%。盡管可再生能源將是未來燃料組合中增長最快的組成部分，但石化燃料仍將占據(jù)主流。

????現(xiàn)在看起來，任何一家手握足夠石油資源的公司都有資本承擔(dān)上百萬加侖的原油泄露，其后果雖然會一時讓它寢食不安，卻不會置其于死地，哪怕這家公司正置身于世界上行情最為跌宕起伏的市場。

????實際上，巨型的多業(yè)態(tài)石油公司對市場動蕩應(yīng)付自如。油價低伏時，勘探和生產(chǎn)就變得昂貴，但這些公司卻能依靠加油站這類零售資產(chǎn)獲得高額利潤。油價高企時，勘探和生產(chǎn)部門就成為賺錢的主力軍。目前，油價高企可謂曠日持久，因此康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）正打算2012年剝離其精煉部門，轉(zhuǎn)而專事石油勘探和生產(chǎn)。

眼不見，心不煩

????盡管此次漏油事故已讓BP安全記錄中的漏洞暴露無遺，但其財務(wù)表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)重歸穩(wěn)定，此外，一度圍繞著它的負(fù)面報道也已逐漸平息。雖然泄露的原油價值超過500萬桶，但流入海灣的原油進(jìn)入的是一個雖遭破壞，卻富含嗜油細(xì)菌的生態(tài)環(huán)境。沒有被化學(xué)分解劑或微生物分解的石油會沉到洋底，從公眾視線中完全消失。

????BP新任首席執(zhí)行官鮑勃?達(dá)德利稱，公司已經(jīng)修正了發(fā)展路線。只有時間能告訴我們他所說的是否屬實。然而，石油巨頭們總能搖身一變、恢復(fù)元?dú)狻０？松凸揪褪莻€很好的例子。還記得埃克森瓦爾迪茲號（Exxon Valdez）漏油事件嗎？當(dāng)時，一位醉醺醺的埃克森油輪船長駕船擱淺，將1,100萬加侖石油傾入阿拉斯加原本處于原始狀態(tài)的威廉王子灣（Prince William Sound）。這一事故令人厭惡，不可原諒。但是此后不久，埃克森石油又重振旗鼓了。

????表面上，埃克森石油在媒體面前對此事故表現(xiàn)得冷淡自負(fù)。但在公司內(nèi)部，它其實已開始著手實施改進(jìn)，現(xiàn)在，該公司擁有的部分安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)堪稱業(yè)內(nèi)最高水準(zhǔn)。或許BP會效仿這家公司的做法。鑒于它之前犯下這樣的大錯，其糾錯進(jìn)度理應(yīng)受到密切監(jiān)督。

????不過，石油巨頭犯錯的門檻如此之高，因此，很難想象，到底得是多大的錯誤才會導(dǎo)致它們其中的某一家轟然倒下。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

Beyond petroleum, beyond the Gulf

????Deepwater is only one slice of BP's plentiful global assets. As many mistakes as it has made, the company is very difficult, if not impossible, to kill. Any oil company would be, because even though they must work harder for their oil, the commodity is both extremely profitable and in increasingly greater demand. The Energy Administration Association's international energy outlook predicts that global energy consumption will jump by about 53% between 2008 and 2035. While renewable sources of energy will make up the fastest-growing segment of the fuel mix in the future, fossil fuels will remain the dominant source.

????It seems like any company with its hands on enough petroleum can afford to spill millions of gallons of crude with upsetting, but nonfatal, corporate consequences, even if that company is playing in one of the world's most volatile markets.

????In fact, huge, integrated oil companies can adjust to the volatility in the market. When the price of oil is low, exploration and production is expensive, but companies can rely on retail assets such as gas stations to benefit from the high profit margins at the pump. When the price of oil is high, then the exploration and production arms become the main moneymakers. The price of oil has been so high for so long that ConocoPhillips is planning to spin off its refining arm in 2012 and focus only on exploration and production.

Out of sight, out of mind

????Financial stability aside, the flurry of bad press around BP has died down, despite the skeletons in its safety record that the spill revealed. Though there was over 5 million barrels worth, the oil that spilled in the Gulf entered an ecosystem that, though damaged, is full of petroleum-consuming bacteria. The oil that wasn't dissolved by chemical dispersants or microbes fell to the bottom of the ocean, out of sight to the public.

????BP's new CEO Bob Dudley says the company has righted its course. Only time will tell, but Big Oil is capable of change. Exxon is a good example. Remember the Exxon Valdez? A drunk Exxon oil tanker captain ran the ship aground, spilling 11 million gallons of oil in Alaska's formerly pristine Prince William Sound. It was ugly and inexcusable. But then, Exxon restructured itself.

????Outwardly, the oil giant was stand-offish to the press about the incident. But it made internal changes, and the company now has some of the highest safety standards in the industry. Perhaps BP will follow suit. It's progress should be carefully watched, after such a big mistake.

????But the bar for mistakes at Big Oil companies is so high, it's hard to imagine how big an error would have to be to actually take one of them down.