????本周六，汽車制造商Telsa Motors將進(jìn)行最新車型S的試駕，這也意味著數(shù)千名預(yù)訂用戶將有機(jī)會(huì)一睹該公司第二款零排放電動(dòng)四門轎車的風(fēng)采。Telsa公司聲稱該車性能卓越，分析人士和投資者也在密切關(guān)注該車是否真的像廠家說的那樣卓爾不凡。

????該車將于2012年年中上市，7座S車型對(duì)于汽車工業(yè)來說無異于一場(chǎng)重大的變革。該車的性能目標(biāo)著實(shí)可圈可點(diǎn)：零到60英里加速時(shí)間為5.6秒，最高時(shí)速為120英里，基本款車型充電一次至少可以行駛160英里。

????然而，與Tesla不同尋常的發(fā)展模式相比，這款新車的表現(xiàn)仍遜色不少。盡管相對(duì)于成熟的汽車制造商而言，Tesla在工程資源和批量生產(chǎn)效率方面毫無優(yōu)勢(shì)，但根據(jù)公司的計(jì)劃，這款新車的售價(jià)將等同或略低于大型汽車制造商的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)車型。該車的起價(jià)為57,400美元，與同樣款式的奧迪A6的售價(jià)持平。

????在這樣的定價(jià)水平與對(duì)手展開競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，Telsa將不得不挑戰(zhàn)傳統(tǒng)的汽車行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué),包括：

????? 規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)對(duì)于汽車工業(yè)尤為重要。汽車的規(guī)模化生產(chǎn)有利于分?jǐn)傃邪l(fā)、工程、制造、營銷以及銷售所帶來的固定成本。然而Tesla自成立之日起總共才銷售了不到2,000輛車，而根據(jù)公司的計(jì)劃，S車型的年產(chǎn)量也僅為20,000臺(tái)。

????? Telsa推出的第一款車Roadster是根據(jù)蓮花（Lotus）Elise車型改造而來，而且該車的部分組裝工作由英格蘭蓮花工廠完成。與之不同的是，新推出的電動(dòng)車型S是該公司獨(dú)立研發(fā)的全新車型。汽車巨頭在新車研發(fā)上的花費(fèi)往往高達(dá)上億美元。據(jù)估計(jì)，通用汽車（General Motors）在雪佛蘭Volt車型研發(fā)上的花銷達(dá)到了10億美元。因此就資源來說，Tesla公司顯然要緊張得多。為節(jié)省開支，大型公司往往以競(jìng)標(biāo)的方式從外部供應(yīng)商采購部件，并將相同部件用于多款不同的車型。而Tesla則宣稱公司計(jì)劃自行生產(chǎn)70%的部件。

????? 大多數(shù)汽車制造商都不會(huì)把搭載全新動(dòng)力集成的全新車型交由新的組裝工廠生產(chǎn)。同時(shí)處理多項(xiàng)新任務(wù)是一項(xiàng)十分復(fù)雜的工程，往往會(huì)導(dǎo)致延期交付和質(zhì)量問題。Tesla在經(jīng)驗(yàn)方面本身就先天不足，現(xiàn)在卻試圖利用通用汽車廢棄的生產(chǎn)車間同時(shí)完成以上三項(xiàng)任務(wù)。這個(gè)難度堪比波音（Boeing）要從帆布-木架結(jié)構(gòu)的飛機(jī)直接跨越到787夢(mèng)幻客機(jī)的生產(chǎn)。

????Tesla認(rèn)為，公司擁有“汽車構(gòu)架的整體變更”的創(chuàng)新、Roadster車型上所積累的“可靠的且已通過路況測(cè)試的技術(shù)”經(jīng)驗(yàn)以及“先進(jìn)的電氣技術(shù)”，完全可以彌補(bǔ)這些不足。然而汽車行業(yè)面臨來自于數(shù)十家汽車制造商和成千上萬的供應(yīng)商的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，專有技術(shù)很難永葆青春。Tesla目前所擁有的任何創(chuàng)新成果在很短的時(shí)間內(nèi)可能就會(huì)成為行業(yè)的共同做法。Tesla未來的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)何在，分析人士也一直在琢磨。

????首席執(zhí)行官艾倫?馬斯克堅(jiān)信公司能在2013年實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。公司發(fā)言人指出最大的保證在于，標(biāo)價(jià)為67,000美元和77,000美元并配有大號(hào)電池的豪華S車型將帶來25%的毛利潤。盡管他也承認(rèn)“將產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)大30倍”有難度，但是馬斯克對(duì)媒體稱：“S車型量產(chǎn)之后不久”Tesla公司就能盈利。

????汽車行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)使Tesla公司左右為難。為了將產(chǎn)量提升至合理水平并分?jǐn)傞_銷，公司將不得不降低售價(jià)。但是售價(jià)降低將導(dǎo)致利潤縮水。如果Tesla決定通過提高售價(jià)來賺回成本，那么汽車的產(chǎn)量將急劇下降。

????樂觀的證券分析師認(rèn)為，如果實(shí)車具有廠家所宣傳的指標(biāo)和性能，這款電動(dòng)車將在汽車行業(yè)掀起一場(chǎng)革命，這一前景令他們倍感振奮，因此對(duì)以上擔(dān)憂不以為意。他們認(rèn)為Tesla有望挑戰(zhàn)底特律汽車三巨頭并一躍成為第四巨頭。美國能源部（U.S. Department of Energy）也受到感染，在去年為Tesla公司擔(dān)保了4.65億美元的貸款，并說服戴姆勒（Daimler）和豐田（Toyota）加大對(duì)Tesla的投資。

????但目前的數(shù)據(jù)仍不容樂觀，而且Tesla也需要盡快實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。2009年，公司虧損5,570萬美元；2010年達(dá)到1.543億美元；2011年上半年達(dá)1.08億美元。部分華爾街人士認(rèn)為Tesla的扭虧速度將是驚人的。大多數(shù)汽車要在量產(chǎn)后的第三個(gè)年頭才能賺回開發(fā)成本，但是他們預(yù)計(jì)S車型實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利只需要18個(gè)月的時(shí)間。

????美國銀行美林證券（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）高級(jí)分析師史蒂夫?米盧諾維奇在8月8日發(fā)表的一篇報(bào)道中寫道:“汽車行業(yè)在未來10年中的變化將超過過去100年變化的總和。電動(dòng)汽車（EV）代表著一個(gè)新的領(lǐng)域，而Tesla可能成為這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)頭羊，因?yàn)楫?dāng)新的技術(shù)涌現(xiàn)之時(shí)，新進(jìn)入行業(yè)的公司獲勝的機(jī)會(huì)更大。在我們看來，首席執(zhí)行官艾倫?馬斯克有望成為汽車行業(yè)的史蒂夫?喬布斯，既具有遠(yuǎn)見卓識(shí)，又能為股東管理、創(chuàng)造價(jià)值。”

????或許有這種可能。但也有可能，他將成為另一個(gè)安迪?凱，亞當(dāng)?歐斯彭或者克萊夫?辛克萊爾，他們都是史蒂夫?喬布斯同時(shí)代人，當(dāng)年都是個(gè)人計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)的先驅(qū)人物，最后卻中途折戟。

????This Saturday, Tesla Motors is holding a test drive to reveal the latest versions of its second zero-emission automobile, the all-electric four-door Model S to several thousand reservation holders. Tesla has made some extraordinary claims for the car, and analysts and investors will be watching the event closely to see if it can live up to them.

????Due to go on sale in mid-2012, the seven passenger Model S is designed to do nothing less than revolutionize the auto industry. Its performance targets are extraordinary: zero to 60 miles per hour in 5.6 seconds, 120 mile-per-hour top speed, and a battery-powered range of 160 miles at minimum for the base model.

????But the performance of the car itself pales in comparison with Tesla's unusual business model. Even though it lacks the engineering resources and volume efficiencies of an established automaker, Tesla (TSLA) intends to sell the car for the same as or less than competing models from larger manufacturers. Prices will start at $57,400 -- about the same as for a similar-sized Audi A6.

????In order to compete at those prices, Tesla will have to stand traditional auto industry economics on its head. Consider:

????? Autos is an industry that values economies of scale and requires the production of hundreds of thousand cars to cover the fixed costs of R&D, engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution. Yet Tesla has sold fewer than 2,000 cars in its lifetime and plans to build just 20,000 Model S cars annually.

????? Unlike Tesla's first car, the Roadster, which was based on a modified Lotus Elise (and actually assembled in part by Lotus in England), the electric S is all-new from the ground up. Established automakers spend several hundred million dollars engineering similar projects -- General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) is estimated to have spent $1 billion developing the Chevrolet Volt -- but Tesla's resources are far more limited. Big companies save money by sourcing components from outside suppliers through competitive bidding and using them on several different models. Tesla says it plans to make 70% of its own parts in-house.

????? Most automakers avoid building a new model with a new powertrain in a new assembly plant. Doing more than one new job at a time is just too complex and leads to delays and quality issues. Tesla, which has little experience building anything, has taken over an abandoned GM plant in an attempt to do all three at once. It's as if Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) went from making canvas-and-wood biplanes to the 787 Dreamliner in one step.

????Tesla believes it can overcome these shortcomings with innovations like "a holistic approach to vehicle architecture," lessons from the Roadster's "proven, road-tested technology," and "superior electric technology." Yet nothing stays proprietary for very long in a fiercely competitive industry with dozens of manufacturers and thousands of suppliers. Any genuine innovations that Tesla discovers could quickly become common property. Analysts wonder where Tesla's competitive advantage will lie.

????CEO Elon Musk insists that the company will make money in 2013. One big reason, a spokesperson says, is a pair of upscale S models with extra battery capacity priced at $67,000 and $77,000 that will command gross margins of 25%. While he acknowledges the difficulty of "ramping up production by a factor of 30," Musk tells interviewers Tesla will move into the black "soon after Model S starts production."

????The auto industry's harsh economics put Tesla in a bind. In order to boost production volume to reasonable levels in order to lower its overhead, it will have to cut prices. But if it cuts prices, it will shrink its profit margins. Should Tesla decide to raise prices to cover its costs, its volume will drop precipitously.

????These concerns have been brushed aside by bullish securities analysts caught up in the excitement of a battery-powered car that -- if it delivers as promised -- could revolutionize the auto industry. They view Tesla as having the potential to turn the Detroit Three and create the Big Four. Their enthusiasm has been shared by the U.S. Department of Energy, which guaranteed a $465 million loan for Tesla last year and further stoked investments from Daimler and Toyota (TM).

????The numbers remain daunting and Tesla needs to see some black ink soon. It lost $55.7 million in 2009, $154.3 million in 2010, and $108 million for the first six months of 2011. Some on Wall Street see Tesla making an unusually fast turnaround. Most vehicles don't recover their development costs until they are in their third year of production, but their forecasts show the Model S turning profitable within 18 months.

????"The auto industry might change more in the next 10 years than the last 100," wrote veteran analyst Steve Milunovich of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a report published August 8. "Electric vehicles (EV) represent a new category that Tesla could lead given that new entrants tend to win when disruptive technologies emerge. In our view, CEO Elon Musk may be similar to Steve Jobs in being a technology visionary also able to manage and create shareholder value."

????Perhaps. Or he could turn out to be another Andy Kay, Adam Osborne, or Clive Sinclair -- pioneers in the personal computer industry who were contemporaries of Steve Jobs that fell along the wayside.