????本周三，亞馬遜（Amazon）正式發布平板電腦Kindle Fire。投資銀行Piper Jaffray的基恩?明斯特在第一時間向客戶發出報告稱，Kindle Fire根本不是蘋果（Apple）iPad的對手。不過，明斯特隨后補充說，“它的競爭力確實出乎我們的意料。”

????明斯特認為Kindle Fire存在以下不足：

????? Kindle Fire的顯示屏僅為7英寸，而iPad的為10英寸（兩者之間的實際差距比數字顯示出來的差距要大，7英寸屏的面積僅僅是iPad 10英寸屏的45%。）

????? Kindle Fire只有8GB存儲空間，而iPad有16GB、32GB和64GB多種規格。

????? iPad有前后雙攝像頭并支持3G網絡，這些功能Kindle Fire一項都不沒有。

????明斯特表示，Kindle Fire的優勢在于電影、音樂和網絡瀏覽功能。他認為兩家公司都在揚長避短。

????在我們看來，蘋果致力于整合優秀的硬件和軟件，利用供給方面的規模效應來提供售價達499美元的高端平板電腦。而亞馬遜似乎意在提供擁有優質內容的產品，它將自己可供出售的海量內容資本與云服務產品相結合，以提供世界一流的移動數字產品。蘋果在iPad硬件上的毛利率超過30%，但亞馬遜可能每臺Kindle Fire就要虧損50美元。最后，蘋果的供應鏈、制造和分銷能力使其與亞馬遜相比更具競爭優勢，后者可能會發現很難為圣誕銷售旺季生產出上百萬臺Kindle Fire。

????明斯特預計蘋果在平板電腦市場的份額將從現在的90%跌至2012年的60%，Android的市場份額將從目前的不到10%上升到30%左右。他認為Kindle Fire有望成為第一款推動Android平板市場份額增長的產品。

????明斯特此前預計蘋果將在2012年售出5,000萬臺iPad 2，現在他仍堅持這一看法，盡管他認為這一數字可能有些“保守”。

????譯者：項航

????The Kindle Fire that Amazon (AMZN) introduced Wednesday is not a true competitor of Apple's (AAPL) iPad, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster declared in a note to clients posted shortly afterward. But, he quickly added, "it is more competitive than we anticipated."

????On the Fire's minus side, he cites:

????? The Kindle Fire's 7" screen compared to the 10" iPad (a bigger difference than the numbers make it seem; a 7" screen is only 45% as large as the iPad's 10" screen.)

????? The Fire has 8GB of storage compared to the iPad at 16GB, 32GB, or 64GB.

????? The iPad has two cameras and a 3G option; the Kindle Fire has neither

????On the Fire's plus side he cites the Kindle's movie, music, and Web browsing capabilities.

????Both companies, he writes, are focusing on their core skills:

????In our view, Apple has focused on a combination of superior hardware and software, leveraging supply-side economies of scale to offer a premium tablet for $499. Alternatively, Amazon appears to be focusing on a product with superior content delivery; the company is leveraging its wide range of content assets available for sale in conjunction with its Cloud Services product for world class, mobile, digital delivery. Apple is also monetizing the hardware upfront with a 30%+ gross margin on the iPad, whereas Amazon is likely losing about $50 per Kindle Fire. Finally, Apple's supply chain, production and distribution capabilities provide a competitive advantage over Amazon, which may find it difficult to produce more than a few million Kindle Fires for the holiday season.

????Munster expects Apple's share of the tablet market to fall from 90% today to 60% in 2012, and for the Android share to rise from less than 10% to about 30%. The Kindle Fire, he says, likely to be one of the first Android tablet to drive those share gains.

????He had previously estimated that Apple would sell 50 million iPads in calendar 2012, and he's sticking with that number, although he believes it may be "conservative."