????主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)已經(jīng)演變?yōu)樾判奈C(jī)，而法國(guó)銀行首當(dāng)其沖，成了替罪羔羊，但如果這場(chǎng)危機(jī)失控，遭殃的絕對(duì)不止它們幾家。在歐洲，幾乎所有大銀行都持有大量歐元區(qū)國(guó)債，而且與美國(guó)和亞洲銀行相比，它們所持存款與發(fā)放在外的貸款之間的比例更低。

????巴克萊銀行的研究顯示，歐洲最大的14家銀行中，有9家為投資目的而持有的非流動(dòng)性凈貸款超過(guò)了其掌握的存款，使它們必須依賴資本市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)劇烈的短期融資。法興銀行的貸款-存款比例高達(dá)130%，迫使其依賴外部資本，這是非常危險(xiǎn)的。不過(guò)法興還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不是這方面表現(xiàn)最差的，意大利聯(lián)合圣保羅銀行（Intesa Sanpaolo）的比例最高，達(dá)到驚人的160%；意大利聯(lián)合信貸銀行（Unicredit）以及英國(guó)的勞埃德銀行（Lloyds）緊隨其后，都達(dá)到了149%。按絕對(duì)數(shù)字來(lái)說(shuō)，這三家銀行貸款與存款之間的差額分別達(dá)到1,390億歐元、1,850億歐元和2,140億歐元。

????今年8月，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）總裁、法國(guó)前財(cái)長(zhǎng)克里斯蒂娜?拉加德在美國(guó)懷俄明州舉行的全球央行會(huì)議上發(fā)表了演講，強(qiáng)調(diào)歐洲銀行需要“緊急充實(shí)資本”，“這是斬?cái)辔C(jī)蔓延鏈條的關(guān)鍵”。

????各大銀行的資金缺口到底有多大？目前這個(gè)問(wèn)題還沒(méi)有定論。上周，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織泄露出來(lái)的一份文件指出，歐洲銀行可能需要2,750億美元資金，而基金經(jīng)理人們向《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）表示，他們根據(jù)模型計(jì)算的結(jié)果約為5,000億美元。計(jì)算方法基本上就是將歐洲銀行持有的歐洲外圍成員國(guó)的國(guó)債累加。不過(guò)不管具體數(shù)字到底是多少，它必須足夠大才行，否則無(wú)法重振市場(chǎng)信心。美國(guó)2008年設(shè)立了問(wèn)題資產(chǎn)救助計(jì)劃（TARP），用以為銀行業(yè)注資，其規(guī)模達(dá)7,000億美元；而在歐洲，一旦歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（EFSF）擴(kuò)容獲得歐元區(qū)全部17個(gè)成員國(guó)議會(huì)的批準(zhǔn)，其規(guī)模將達(dá)到4,400億歐元，約合6,000億美元。

????歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金與問(wèn)題資產(chǎn)救助計(jì)劃并不完全一樣，因?yàn)榍罢叩穆氊?zé)是為揮霍無(wú)度的政府注資，而不是拯救銀行。不過(guò)，一旦某國(guó)政府獲得該基金的援助，它就能轉(zhuǎn)而向麻煩纏身的銀行注資。希臘可以用該基金的援助償還國(guó)債及彌補(bǔ)預(yù)算赤字，而法國(guó)則可以用來(lái)向法興銀行注資。

????值得擔(dān)憂的是，市場(chǎng)可能已經(jīng)將歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金擴(kuò)大獲批準(zhǔn)這一利好考慮在內(nèi)。果真如此，市場(chǎng)向歐洲諸國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)發(fā)出的信號(hào)就很清晰了：6,000億美元尚不足以重振投資者對(duì)金融體系的信心。問(wèn)題資產(chǎn)救助計(jì)劃的締造者之一、美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)蒂莫西?蓋特納今天到訪波蘭，出席一場(chǎng)歐洲財(cái)長(zhǎng)之間的非正式會(huì)議。他的目的可能是幫助歐洲同行們認(rèn)識(shí)到，將金融穩(wěn)定基金用作重振歐元區(qū)信心的工具大有裨益。如果該基金能據(jù)此重新設(shè)計(jì)，將有助于緩解投資者的憂慮情緒。

????當(dāng)然，問(wèn)題資產(chǎn)救助計(jì)劃式的歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金無(wú)法解決歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)，正如問(wèn)題資產(chǎn)救助計(jì)劃本身難以解決美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)危機(jī)，該基金的作用在于重振市場(chǎng)信心，防止銀行業(yè)遭遇擠兌，給所有相關(guān)方面喘息之機(jī)，讓他們騰出手來(lái)整頓內(nèi)務(wù)。最終，要徹底解決歐元區(qū)的問(wèn)題，依然少不了結(jié)構(gòu)性的真正變革。

????歐洲現(xiàn)在有機(jī)會(huì)推行真正的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革——將歐元區(qū)財(cái)政與貨幣政策統(tǒng)一化，防止新的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)爆發(fā)。問(wèn)題是，歐元區(qū)17個(gè)國(guó)家能否產(chǎn)生足夠強(qiáng)的政治意愿，邁出如此大膽的一步？對(duì)此，我們尚不得而知。如果做不到這一點(diǎn)，幾年之后這塊大陸可再次回到原點(diǎn)。

????譯者：小宇

????The sovereign debt crisis has evolved into a crisis of confidence, with the French banks being served up as whipping boy, but they are certainly not going to be the last if left unchecked. In Europe, nearly all the major banks have large eurozone sovereign debt holdings. They also hold fewer deposits in relation to their outstanding loans compared with U.S. and Asian banks.

????Barclays found that nine of the largest 14 European banks have illiquid net loans held for investment that exceeded the amount of deposits on hand, making them dependent on volatile funding from the capital markets. Société Générale had a loan-to-deposit ratio of around 130%, making it dangerously dependent on outside funding. But it was far from the worst offender in the group. Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo, with 160%, and Unicredit, with a 149%, along with the UK's Lloyds, also with 149%, had worst ratios, equating to an absolute deficit of deposits to loans amounting to 139 billion euros, 185 billion euros and 214 billion euros, respectively.

????In August, Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund and the former French finance minister, said in a speech at a banker conference this August in Wyoming that European banks were in need of "urgent recapitalization." "This is key to cutting the chains of contagion," she said.

????It is unclear how much the funding shortfall is at this point. A leaked IMF report last week suggested that European banks would need around $275 billion. Money managers tell Fortune that their models suggest somewhere around $500 billion, which is derived by essentially adding up all the peripheral sovereign debt held by European banks. Whatever the number, it will need to be really big to bring confidence back. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), set up in 2008 to recapitalize the US banking sector, was $700 billion. In Europe, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) will be 440 billion euros or around $600 billion, once its enlargement is ratified by the parliaments of all 17 members of the eurozone.

????Now, the EFSF isn't exactly TARP, as its mandate is to recapitalize profligate governments, not banks. But once the nation receives the cash, they can then turn around and inject it into their troubled banks. So Greece could use the cash to pay its loans and fill its budget deficit while France could inject cash into Société Générale.

????The fear is that the market is already pricing in passage of the EFSF. If so, then it is sending a clear signal to European finance ministers that $600 billion is not enough to restore confidence in the system. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, one of the architects of the TARP program, is in Poland today attending an informal meeting of European finance ministers. He could be there to help the Europeans see the benefits of using the EFSF as a vehicle to restore confidence in the eurozone. If the fund is repackaged in that way, it may help to ease investor fears.

????To be sure, a TARP-like EFSF will not solve the European sovereign debt crisis, just as TARP has done little to fix the U.S. housing crisis. The program will only serve to restore confidence in order to avoid a run on the banking sector and to give all parties some breathing room to get their houses in order. Eventually, real structural changes will need to take place to fix the troubles of the eurozone.

????Europe has the opportunity to devise real structural changes to the eurozone that would prevent another sovereign debt crisis, namely the centralization of the zone's fiscal and monetary policy. It remains to be seen if there is strong enough will in the 17 capitals of the eurozone to take such a bold step. Failure to do so could put the continent right back where they started in just a couple years time.