????在尼克松和福特兩屆政府中，亨利?基辛格都主導了美國的對外政策，最近他出版了新書《論中國》（On China）。《財富》（Fortune）雜志主編賽安迪采訪了這位傳奇外交家。

????問：基辛格博士，您能否談談當前中美關(guān)系的性質(zhì)？

????答：中美兩國是全球的兩個主要經(jīng)濟引擎，在全球范圍內(nèi)彼此互動，因此，全世界的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與和平都取決于這一關(guān)系的性質(zhì)。就當前這一時刻而言，兩國政府都認識到這一雙邊關(guān)系的重要性，但尚未能成功地將此種認識轉(zhuǎn)化為面向未來的共同目標。他們頗為擅長給政府首腦會議撰寫公報，卻無法真正彌合上述鴻溝。兩國都正在朝著全新但尚無定論的未來前進，能否以一種平行的方式界定未來？這值得雙方努力。兩國的未來目標并不一定得完全相同，但至少要避免對抗戰(zhàn)略。

????問：基辛格博士，從您1971年首次訪華以來，中國發(fā)生了巨大變化，這是否符合您當時的預測？

????答：當我第一次踏訪中國時，那兒基本上沒有汽車，很少有消費品，也沒有高樓大廈，他們的科技也很落后。尼克松總統(tǒng)訪華時，我們被迫攜帶了一個地面衛(wèi)星接收站，以便有效地與國內(nèi)溝通，同時便利媒體報道。中國方面買下了這個地面站，如此顯得他們不是在運作一個美國地面站——這是典型的中國式面子問題。直到1976年，盡管中美兩國已經(jīng)開放貿(mào)易5年了，中美之間的貿(mào)易額還比不上洪都拉斯與美國之間的貿(mào)易額。直到1979年，我們現(xiàn)在所談論的進展都還是無法想象的，而且直到80年代后期，中國的發(fā)展才開始加速。因此，這主要是最近20年的現(xiàn)象。

????問：您是否擔心中國經(jīng)濟存在過熱風險？對于中國政府領(lǐng)導層掌握市場驅(qū)動型經(jīng)濟體的能力，您是否有信心？

????答：他們現(xiàn)在運作的本來就是一種市場經(jīng)濟形式，現(xiàn)在，他們嘗試做到的是開發(fā)一套“中間體系”，我認為這一目標將會實現(xiàn)。中國沿海地區(qū)將會達到發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的水平，而一些內(nèi)陸地區(qū)的落后程度可與世界上最不發(fā)達的國家相提并論，運行這樣一種經(jīng)濟體將給領(lǐng)導層帶來挑戰(zhàn)，可以說是巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。該問題能否完全通過市場機制解決？這還不得而知，但我不認為這是最主要的問題。經(jīng)濟過熱的風險確實存在，中國建設了這么多建筑，甚至是新城，而需求可能下降，兩者之間存在矛盾，可能引發(fā)房地產(chǎn)泡沫。

????不過，關(guān)鍵問題將是如何把這些迅速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)，與正在調(diào)整之中的政治結(jié)構(gòu)統(tǒng)一起來。毫無疑問，中國將嘗試在國際舞臺上把經(jīng)濟成就轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)檎斡绊懥Γ瑥倪@個角度來看，總是會存在某種形式的競爭，但不一定會是零和游戲。

????問：中國似乎很快就將成為全世界最龐大的經(jīng)濟體，這看起來不可避免，對美國來說，這是否值得擔憂？

????答：的確會發(fā)生這種情況，但我們必須從適當?shù)慕嵌葋砜创Ｖ袊娜司鶉鴥?nèi)生產(chǎn)總值仍將只有美國的約五分之一，因為其經(jīng)濟總量需要平攤到大得多的人口上。況且，中國的人口構(gòu)成變化也將帶來巨大問題，2025-2030年后，中國老齡人數(shù)量將會繼續(xù)膨脹，而可照顧這些老人的青壯年人口所占比例卻會不斷萎縮。最后，我們的行動不應該以試圖勝過中國為目標，而應該從我們眼中對美國社會以及對世界和平至關(guān)重要的因素出發(fā)。不過，這是一種前所未有的情況，要成功實現(xiàn)合作，雙方都必須要有我剛才描述的觀點，這不是美國單方面就能實現(xiàn)的。我認為這對和平與發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。

????譯者：小宇

????Henry Kissinger, who played a dominant role in U.S. foreign policy during the Nixon and Ford administrations, is the author of a new book, On China. He spoke with Fortune managing editor Andy Serwer.

????Q: Dr. Kissinger, can you talk about the nature of the relationship between the United States and China today?

????A: We are the two major economic engines in the world that interact with each other all over the world. So economic progress and peace of the world depend on the nature of that relationship. At this particular moment, both governments understand the importance of the relationship but have not succeeded yet in translating it into a common project for the future. They have been better in writing communiqués for the meetings of heads of government than in filling in this gap. Both countries are moving into a new and somewhat undefined future and need to work on whether they can define it in a parallel way. It doesn't have to be identical, but it has, at a minimum, to avoid strategies of confrontation.

????Did you ever anticipate, Dr. Kissinger, how much China would change from your first visit in 1971?

?? When I first came to China, there were practically no automobiles, very limited consumer goods, and no high-rise buildings. The technology was fairly backward. When President Nixon came to China, we had to bring a ground station with us in order to communicate effectively and for our media to communicate. It was typical of Chinese pride that they bought the ground station from us so that they were not operating an American ground station. As late as 1976, five years after the opening, trade with China was less than the trade with Honduras. This whole process we are talking about now didn't get conceived until 1979 and didn't really get momentum until the late '80s. So this is a 20-year phenomenon.

????Are you concerned that the Chinese economy could overheat, and are you confident that the Chinese government leaders are able to handle a market-driven economy?

????They already are running a kind of market economy. Now, what they are trying to do and what I think will happen is the emergence of a system that is somewhat in between. They will have the challenge of developing an economy where the coastal regions are at the level of advanced economies, and the interior is at the level of some of the least developed countries in the world. That's a huge challenge. And whether that can all be done by market principles remains to be seen, but I don't think that is the major problem. There is a danger of overheating. There is a danger of a housing bubble in matching all the structures and even cities being built with demand that could get difficult.

????But the key problem will be how to relate these emerging economic structures to political structures that are being adapted. Internationally, China will undoubtedly attempt to translate its economic performance into political influence. In that sense, there will always be a kind of competition. But it does not have to take the form of a zero sum game.

????It seems inevitable that China will become the largest economy in the world soon. Is that something that should concern the United States?

????It's going to happen, but one has to see it in the right perspective. Per capita, it still will be about only a fifth of the United States because it has to be distributed over a much larger population. There exists a huge demographic problem. A shrinking percentage of the population has to take place to take care of a rapidly growing older generation after 2025 or 2030. Finally, we should act not because we want to outdo China, but because of what we think is essential for our society and for the peace of the world. But it is an unprecedented situation. For cooperation to work, both sides have to have the view that I described. It's not something America can do unilaterally. And -- but I think it is necessary for peace and progress ...