????全球汽車業似乎剛要迎來翹首以待的反彈，誰知又再次撞上南墻。分析人士最近紛紛調低了今年和明年的汽車銷售預期。看來，倒閉潮、經濟衰退和日本3月地震所帶來的后遺癥還遠沒有到痊愈的時候。

????一旦對于銷售低迷的擔憂變成現實，汽車廠家將被迫減產裁員，而進口商將減少日本車、歐洲車和韓國車的進口量。與此同時，為了節約開支，消費者將在2011年和2012年繼續使用現有的座駕。經季節調整之后的汽車銷售量從7月份的1,220萬輛下降到了8月份的1,210萬輛。

????但是日本的汽車供應是個例外。日本3月11日發生了地震和海嘯，生產停頓，目前正處于恢復期。

????在美國，“工作很難找”，資訊公司HIS汽車部高級汽車經濟師喬治?麥格里亞諾說道。他的這番話描述了整個美國失業狀況而不僅僅是底特律就業機會的銳減。目前，美國失業率仍然徘徊在9%的高位。“誰都想買新車，但是現在他們連住的地方都沒有。人們的股票投資組合也受到了經濟疲軟的侵蝕。”

????麥格里亞諾說如今美國路面上行使的車輛平均使用年限已經超過了10年，創下歷史之最。目前美國本土老化的車輛共有約2.37億輛，與以往經濟衰退期間出產的車相比，這些車更耐用，也更易于修理。

????換句話說，汽車廠家多年來對汽車質量的不斷改進如今反而成了汽車業發展的絆腳石。

????兩周前，HIS公司將今年的銷售預期由先前的1,270萬輛下調至1,250萬輛。麥格里亞諾還說，經濟復蘇伊始，該公司對2011年汽車銷售的預期高達1,340萬輛。過去10年，美國汽車的年銷售量最高為1,700萬輛，平均每年達到了1,600萬輛。

????市場資訊公司J.D. Power & Associates北美市場預測部的高級經理大衛?卡廷說：“要恢復到1,700萬輛的銷售水平需要一段時間。”與此同時，他還認為，即使經濟重新步入正軌，1,500-1,600萬的年銷量也會成為“新的常態”。

????兩周前，J.D. Power公司也將2011年的銷售預期由先前的1,290萬輛下調至1,260萬輛，同時也將2012年的1,470萬輛的汽車和卡車的銷售預期下調至1,410萬輛。

????“顯然，必須進一步改善就業狀況，”卡廷說，“同時還需要解決政府的僵局。”汽車租賃商赫茲（Hertz,）以及National公司曾經都是汽車制造商旗下的公司，也是汽車制造商銷售汽車的渠道。以前，這些租賃公司的車在使用不久后就會按“九成新”汽車出售給消費者。而現在，租賃公司延長了汽車使用時限，因此公司更新車輛的周期也相應延長。“根據我自己的經驗，現在很多租賃公司車都已經跑了35,000-40,000英里”，卡廷說，“以前只有幾千英里而已”。

????某些車型的銷售好于整體車市的行情，這包括部分緊湊車及跨界車例如通用雪佛蘭（Chevrolet）的Equinox，福特（Ford）的Escape。部分日本車，特別是本田（Honda）和豐田（Toyota）的車型往往供不應求。由于油價一直居高不下，福特的Taurus和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）300等大型車的銷量則逐年下降。面包車的銷量例如克萊斯勒的Town and Country以及本田的奧德賽（Odyssey）也遭受了重創。

????租賃領域一直是美國市場的亮點之一，這一領域又新增了兩個百分點上升到20%。寬松的借貸和低廉的利率刺激了租賃服務的發展。

????作為消費者的第二大消費領域，汽車是財富的象征，而汽車業則是解決就業的重要部門，同時也是刺激經濟發展的重要因素。遭受重創的汽車業迫切需要喘息之機，因此，面對低于預期的銷售量，失望的不僅僅是汽車廠商，同時也包括它們的衣食父母——手頭拮據的美國消費者。

????Just when automakers appeared to be gaining some much-needed momentum, they hit another wall. Weak economic conditions have prompted analysts to lower their vehicles sales forecasts for this year and next. Now, the hangover of bankruptcy, recession and the Japanese earthquake in March appears far from over.

????If fears of weaker sales become reality, auto plants will produce fewer vehicles and employ fewer workers, while importers could cut shipments from Japan, Europe and South Korea. Consumers, meanwhile, will continue to try and save money in 2011 and 2012 by driving their old cars a little while longer. The seasonally-adjusted annual rate of vehicle sales fell to 12.1 million in August from a 12.2 million rate in July.

????An exception to the forecast could be the supply of cars from Japan, which was disrupted by the March 11 earthquake and resulting tsunami. Japanese factories are recovering from the disaster.

????In the U.S. "the jobs just aren't there," says George Magliano, senior auto economist for IHS Automotive. He's not talking about a decimated Detroit, but the current overall U.S. unemployment rate, which hovers over 9%. "People would like to buy new cars, but they're being pushed out of their homes. Economic weakness is leaching into their stock portfolios."

????Magliano says the average age of a car on U.S. roads has risen above 10 years, the highest in history. The aging of the domestic fleet of about 237 million vehicles has been made possible by cars that are more durable and can be repaired more easily than in past recessions.

????In other words, years of striving to improve quality are coming back to bite auto manufacturers.

????Two weeks ago, IHS lowered its sales forecast for this year to 12.5 million vehicles, down from 12.7 million. In the early stage of the economic recovery, its forecast for 2011 was as high as 13.4 million vehicles, Magliano says. In the last decade U.S. sales were as high as 17 million vehicles and averaged about 16 million annually.

????"It will take a while to get back to that [17 million] level,'' says Dave Cutting, senior manager of North American forecasting for J.D. Power & Associates. In the meantime, he said, sales of 15 million to 16 million vehicles will be the "new normal" for a healthy economy.

????J.D. Power two weeks ago cut its 2011 vehicle sales forecast to 12.6 million, down from 12.9 million. For 2012 the company cut its forecast to 14.1 million cars and trucks from an earlier 14.7 million.

????"Obviously job creation has to improve," Cutting says, "as well as the gridlock that engulfs Washington."

????Rental car companies like Hertz (HTZ (HTZ, Fortune 500)) and National, once owned by automakers and used as a way to distribute vehicles that later were sold to consumers as "almost new," are also operating vehicles much longer before trading for new. "My own experience is that lots of rental cars have 35,000 or 40,000 miles on the odometer," Cutting says. "They used to have only a couple thousand."

????Certain segments have outperformed the overall market, noticeably compact cars as well as crossover utility vehicles like the Chevrolet (GM (GM, Fortune 500)) Equinox and Ford (F (F, Fortune 500)) Escape. And some Japanese vehicles, especially those from Honda (HMC (HMC)) and Toyota (TM (TM)), have been in short supply. Large cars like the Ford Taurus and Chrysler 300 are down in sales on a year-over-year basis, partly because of high gasoline prices. Minivans like Chrysler's Town and Country and Honda's Odyssey have been disproportionately hurt as well.

????One bright spot in the U.S. market has been leasing, which is up about 2 percentage points to 20%. The availability of credit and low interest costs have spurred lease deals.

????As the second-largest investment for consumers, cars are a sign of prosperity as well as a major employer and stimulant to the overall economy. Slower than expected sales, therefore, will be disappointing not only for a battered auto industry dying for a break -- but also for the strapped American consumers they're counting on.