????我承認媒體總是喜歡搞“賽馬式”的報道，不論是在債券承銷商的問題上，還是在總統大選上都是如此，我也不能免俗。“賽馬式”的報道很好寫，因為和現實生活不同的是，這類報道很容易量化，而且結果明確，誰輸誰贏，一目了然。

????不過如果過度計較一時的長短，可能讓人們看不清潛在的長期趨勢。

????比如拿混合動力汽車來說。大量報道都把混合動力汽車的銷量和油價掛鉤，或者把豐田普銳斯（Toyota Prius）和本田Insight的展廳訪問量拿來作對比，總之是在拿日常的銷量來給這個行業把脈。

????這固然不錯，但它忽略了一個無可爭議的事實：混合動力汽車已經成了汽車行業的一股不可阻擋的力量。理由如下：

????? 100年來，油電混合動力是汽油內燃機引擎的唯一切實有效的替代產品。

????? 10多年來，油電混合動力汽車從無到有，現在已經占據了美國汽車市場的3%。2015年，這一數字有望翻番。

????? 現在幾乎所有的主要汽車廠商都至少有一款自己的混合動力車型，包括梅賽德斯奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）、寶馬（BMW）和保時捷（Porsche）。豐田（Toyota）是混合動力汽車市場上的領軍者，它在美國市場上銷售了8款混合動力車型，而且到明年年底前，還將有6款新車問世。唯一例外的是克萊斯勒（Chrysler），它在經濟危機時期疲于自保，未能研發出自己的混合動力車型。

????由于供應短缺和經濟情況的變動，混合動力汽車的月銷量也時有波動。但考慮到混合動力汽車的增長趨勢，這種波動不足為慮。最近的一個例子是，福特（Ford）和豐田簽署了一項具有里程碑意義的協議，決定共同研發一款混合動力的后驅皮卡。這對福特來說是個千載難逢的機會，福特的F-150皮卡本身就是一款暢銷車型。

????我最近花了一周時間，開著一輛2012款本田（Honda）思域（Civic Hybrid）混合動力轎車跑了400多英里，其間竟然一次也沒有停下來加油。思域官方號稱它的燃油經濟性達到了每加侖汽油44英里。經筆者實測，思域的確在各種路況上都可以輕松跑出這個驕人的成績。

????思域的混合動車版轎車之所以吸引我，部分原因就是它讓人駕輕就熟。例如豐田的儀表板明顯是受了卡通劇《杰森一家》（The Jetsons）的影響，很有科幻風。普銳斯的車身也采取了符合航空動力學的造型。而本田思域的混合動力車卻充分繼承了老款本田思域完美的人機工程設計。

????思域混合動力車的造型并不能讓人眼前一亮，不過一旦坐上駕駛座，你會發現，排檔桿還是在最熟悉的位置上。而且我也非常喜歡思域的雙層顯示屏，它使汽車的重要數據隨時位于駕駛者視線之內。

????思域混合動力轎車的駕乘感覺也和老款思域很相像，一切都非常連貫、順從，響應性也很好，無論多謹慎的司機，開著它都會覺得很舒服，這是另一個我給它加分的原因。看來本田并未喪失提高駕乘樂趣的能力。

????2012款思域的汽油版上市時，有不少評測者批評它工藝太粗糙。不過它的怠速過低，的確是一個讓我驚訝的問題。如果在斜坡上時，你的腳沒有一直踩在剎車上的話，甚至還會向后遛車。這一點需要時間來適應。

????思域混動版的價格為27,500美元。很多人批評這款小車內飾單調，外型老舊，因此對于這樣一款小車來說，27,500美元可不是一個小數目。不過這個價格包含了真皮加熱座椅和導航系統。就在幾年以前，這還是只有豪華車才有的配置。

????這款車之所以售價偏高，也不是沒有道理。2012款本田思域混動版的底價為24,050美元，遠高于標準汽油版的20,505美元。但是汽油版思域每加侖汽油要比混動版少跑12英里。

????買了混動版后，可以在加油的開支上節省出差價來，同時也算為抗擊氣候變化做貢獻了。此外，駕駛者還藉此成了歷史上第一批采用新型汽車動力系統的人之一。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Okay, I admit it. The media love to report on a horse race, whether it is between bond underwriters or presidential candidates, and I'm just as guilty as anybody else. Horse races are easy to write about because, unlike real life, they can be quantified and have a definitive outcome.

????But a fascination with race results can obscure underlying long-term trends.

????Take the discussion about hybrid cars. Stories abound that measure the correlation between hybrid sales and gasoline prices, or compare showroom traffic for the Toyota Prius versus the Honda Insight. They are taking the temperature of an industry in day-to-day increments.

????That's all well and good, but it ignores one incontrovertible fact: Hybrids have become the auto industry's unstoppable force. Consider:

????? Hybrid gas-electric power is the only serious alternative to the internal combustion, gasoline-powered engine that has emerged in one hundred years.

????? ince starting from zero a little more than a decade ago, hybrids now account for 3% of the U.S. market -- and that share is expected to double by 2015.

????? Nearly every major manufacturer, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Porsche, now has at least one hybrid model in its lineup. Toyota, the leader, has eight for sale in the U.S. and expects to launch six more by the end of next year. The only holdout is Chrysler, which failed to develop a hybrid during its financial crisis.

????So there is a growth trend here that sweeps away month-to-month variations in sales levels due to supply shortages or economic conditions. The latest example is the landmark deal between Ford and Toyota to develop hybrid powertrains for rear-drive pickup trucks -- a huge opportunity for Ford (F, Fortune 500) with its best-selling F-150.

????I was thinking about all this while I spent a week putting more than 400 miles on a 2012 Honda Civic Hybrid -- and never once stopping for gas. The Civic reliably delivered the promised 44 miles per gallon of regular gas in all kinds of driving conditions.

????Part of the Civic Hybrid's appeal for me is that it is so familiar. While Toyota (TM) has opted for a Jetsons-inspired instrument panel and radical aerodynamic styling for the Prius, the Hybrid features Honda's typically flawless ergonomics along with a conventional design.

????The styling is less than inspired, but from the driver's seat, you find the gearshift just where you'd expect to find it. I'm also a fan of the two-deck function displays that put the important numbers right in your line of sight.

????The Hybrid drives like a Civic too, another plus in my book. Everything feels connected, compliant, and responsive; even cautious drivers will feel comfortable putting their foot in it. Honda hasn't lost its ability to encourage driving pleasure.

????Other reviewers have complained about roughness when the gasoline engine kicks in. I was surprised by the lack of transmission creep and the fact that the car will roll backwards if you take your foot off the brake on an incline. It takes getting used to.

????The price tag for the Hybrid is $27,500 -- a not inconsiderable sum for a car that has been as criticized for its drab interior and dull exterior. But that price includes leather-trimmed and heated seats and a navigation system -- features that only in the last few years have trickled down from luxury models.

????The price premium for this remarkable technology seems reasonable. Base price for a 2012 Hybrid is $24,050. That compares with $20,505 for a standard Civic that gets 12 miles per gallon less overall.

????You would be hard-pressed to make up the difference by savings on gasoline purchases. But you would be making a contribution to the battle against climate change. And you could still count yourself as an early adopter of this historic development in automotive propulsion systems.