降息:經濟復蘇乏力,美國重施故技
????全球股市大跌后,為重振經濟復蘇,美聯儲再次祭出了降息大旗。 ????美國聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)周二放出消息,政府計劃大幅降低利率。自2008年以來,政府便一直使用降息手段來緩解借貸壓力以促使投資者將資本注入股市等風險市場。與以往不同的是,此次美聯儲(Federal Reserve)明確提出了時間限定,并稱至少在2013年年中之前,基準利率都將處于歷史最低水平。 ????或許有些人認為這一舉措堪稱果敢,但是它卻難以扭轉目前經濟復蘇的頹勢。這一舉措無非再次證實了人們熟知的事實:經濟糟透了! ????美國聯邦公開市場委員會會議之后,美聯儲在接下來的聲明中證實了這一計劃。與預期的一樣,這一舉措觀望態度十足,并無任何激烈之處。該舉措還包括進行大規模的國債收購,暨所謂的量化寬松政策。(詳見:《美聯儲救市無方》一文) ????現在,似乎美聯儲正高掛免戰牌。這也情有可原的。政府也可以向經濟注資數十億美元,但是誰敢保證疲軟的經濟就會因此好轉,惱人的失業率就會因此下降。 ????“我認為美聯儲在恢復經濟的舉措上已是黔驢技窮,”哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)經濟學教授大衛?貝姆在一封郵件中寫道,“寬松貨幣政策、量化寬松以及寬松的赤字政策這些經典的宏觀經濟處方已經被運用到了極致,但是經濟卻已經不再買賬。” ????人們的反應并不強烈。畢竟,公司現金流非常充足。美國也并未出現嚴重的流動性問題。 ????“經濟復蘇的障礙另有文章:消費者負債過多,房產過剩,勞動力受教育水平偏低,”貝姆補充道,“要在短時間內解決這些結構性問題基本上是不可能的。就算砸再多的錢也很難起作用。” |
????In a bid to reboot the economic recovery following a global stock rout, the Federal Reserve is sticking by its old toolbox. ????The Federal Open Market Committee today signaled plans to keep interest rates exceptionally low. Officials have resorted to this policy prescription since 2008 in hopes of helping keep borrowing rates low and driving investors into riskier assets like stocks. What's different this time is that the Fed has explicitly spelled out a timeline, saying that it would keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low at least through mid-2013. ????This might sound like a bold move to some, but it likely won't do much to jolt our tepid economic recovery. The action merely underscores what most of us already know: The economy stinks! ????The Fed essentially confirmed that in a statement following the FOMC meeting. As expected, it adopted a wait-and-see approach without embarking on anything too dramatic, including unleashing another round of large-scale bond purchases called quantitative easing. (See: Don't look to the Fed for a rescue) ????For now, it seems the Fed is sitting idle. And who could blame it? Officials could pump billions of dollars into the economy but it's questionable if that will really do much to spur faster growth or bring down our annoyingly high unemployment rate. ????"My take on the Fed is that they do not have any effective tools available to help the economy," writes Columbia University economics professor David Beim in an e-mail. "The classic macroeconomic prescription of easy monetary policy has been used to the max, together with quantitative easing, together with very loose fiscal policy, and these have not budged the economy." ????This isn't all that surprising. After all, companies are flushed with cash. The nation isn't exactly suffering from a liquidity problem. ????"…The obstacles to economic recovery lie elsewhere: over-indebted consumers, over-built real estate and under-educated workers," Beim adds. "Fixing these structural problems in a short time frame, however, is unlikely. Throwing more money at them is ineffectual." |