????巨無霸式的石油公司或許已是明日黃花，但還不至于一夜凋零。

????隨著康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）和馬拉松石油公司（Marathon）等行業(yè)巨頭紛紛宣布拆分，行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖和市場(chǎng)紛紛對(duì)龐大的綜合性石油公司模式提出質(zhì)疑。從原油開采到油氣零售，這些石油巨頭在整個(gè)行業(yè)的各個(gè)領(lǐng)域無孔不入。

????然而，即使石油巨頭的企業(yè)模式遭到了質(zhì)疑，而且這種質(zhì)疑也合情合理，但這并不意味它會(huì)就此退出歷史舞臺(tái)。

????幾天前，《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）指出，許多大型石油公司的價(jià)值被低估。從理論上來講，拆分石油巨頭可以為股東帶來數(shù)十億美元的價(jià)值。但在做出拆分公司這樣的極端決策之前，除了短期股東的收益外，大型石油公司還需要考慮許多因素。有些石油公司最終可能依然會(huì)做出決定，放棄綜合性、一站式服務(wù)的運(yùn)營(yíng)模式。但不論大型石油公司會(huì)經(jīng)歷哪些變化，石油巨頭還將是石油巨頭。

時(shí)好時(shí)壞的“巨頭”模式

????在石油行業(yè)，通常按照河流區(qū)域的劃分，將石油公司劃分為上游、中游和下游。而一家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的石油巨頭通常占據(jù)整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈。上游包括新油井的勘探、開采和原油泵送。中游是指通過船運(yùn)和管道運(yùn)輸新開采的石油。而下游則涉及產(chǎn)品的加工。下游資產(chǎn)通常包括煉油廠，即從原油中提取出不同的化工產(chǎn)品，比如汽油。加油站以及其他零售資產(chǎn)也屬于下游。

????產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游能夠產(chǎn)生巨大的利潤(rùn)?？碧降绞捅憧梢詭碡S厚的利潤(rùn)，并能實(shí)現(xiàn)快速資金回籠，但公司必須提前支出大筆資金，用于新油田的勘探和開采。

????油價(jià)走低時(shí)，掌握煉油和零售業(yè)務(wù)具有重要的意義，因?yàn)檫@兩項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)能夠提供穩(wěn)定的資金流，用于新油井的勘探和開采。所以，從上世紀(jì)80年代到90年代初，油價(jià)持續(xù)走低，在此趨勢(shì)的刺激下，大型石油公司掀起了大規(guī)模并購(gòu)狂潮。于是，便有了今天的?？松梨谑凸荆‥xxonMobil）、英國(guó)石油阿莫科公司（BpAmaco）與康菲石油公司。

????但這種模式對(duì)康菲石油公司并不奏效。7月14日，康菲石油公司宣布，將在2012年上半年之前拆分其下游業(yè)務(wù)。市場(chǎng)對(duì)這一信息的反應(yīng)良好。消息公布后，公司股價(jià)一度大漲了7.5%，不過之后出現(xiàn)回落，終場(chǎng)僅收高1.6%。今年1月份，馬拉松石油公司宣布將剝離部分下游業(yè)務(wù)，對(duì)此市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)積極。公司公布該決定之后，股價(jià)上漲了30%。于是，康菲石油公司緊隨其后做出了同樣的決定。

????這兩家公司拆分成功使市場(chǎng)紛紛預(yù)測(cè)，其他石油巨頭或許也會(huì)如法炮制。有人認(rèn)為，煉油業(yè)務(wù)非常不穩(wěn)定，盡管它也能產(chǎn)生價(jià)值，但更大程度上是一種拖累。而且，阿格斯研究公司（Argus Research Group）資深能源分析師菲利普?韋斯認(rèn)為，許多所謂的“綜合性”公司實(shí)際上只是徒有其名。他說：“一般情況下，綜合性石油公司不會(huì)精煉自己開采的石油，而是就近尋找煉油企業(yè)。”

????康菲石油公司便是如此。而且，許多分析師認(rèn)為，接下來，BP應(yīng)該會(huì)效仿康菲，進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)拆分。BP必須更新戰(zhàn)略。許多分析師認(rèn)為，該公司的股價(jià)被低估。摩根大通（J . P. Morgan）的一位分析師認(rèn)為，拆分BP可以為股東釋放1，000億美元的價(jià)值。

????但BP可能不會(huì)進(jìn)行拆分。倒不是說綜合性模式是理想選擇，這種模式當(dāng)然存在弊端。但要將一家龐大的公司一分為二，卻要面臨重重困難。韋斯稱：“綜合性模式已今不如昔，而且也不再是必然的選擇。但一旦公司采用了這種模式，再想擺脫便非常困難?！?/p>

馬拉松與康菲為何是特例？

????與其他公司相比，馬拉松石油公司與康菲石油公司進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)拆分的條件更有利。馬拉松石油公司尤其與眾不同：許多石油與天然氣公司正在剝離在美國(guó)的煉油業(yè)務(wù)，但馬拉松原油公司（Marathon Petroleum）CEO加里?海明格卻認(rèn)為，公司將在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)中占據(jù)優(yōu)勢(shì)。馬拉松原油公司是從馬拉松石油公司下游業(yè)務(wù)拆分出的新公司。

????海明格在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示：“鑒于全球柴油銷量將超過汽油，因此我們將采取了與眾不同的戰(zhàn)略?！?/p>

????馬拉松石油公司并未放棄煉油業(yè)務(wù)，相反，它對(duì)該業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行了升級(jí)。相比競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，它可以生產(chǎn)更高比例的柴油。海明格希望，這一舉措能夠幫助公司滿足全球市場(chǎng)日益增長(zhǎng)的需求。

????而康菲石油公司將把主要精力放在石油勘探與開采上。但韋斯表示，康菲石油公司有一點(diǎn)不同于其他行業(yè)巨頭?！翱捣剖凸镜囊?guī)模并不像雪佛龍（Chevron）、?？松梨?、BP或殼牌（Shell）等公司那么龐大。因此，與其他大型企業(yè)相比，康菲石油公司進(jìn)行業(yè)務(wù)拆分的條件更加有利。”

????在這兩家公司成功完成業(yè)務(wù)拆分之后，大型石油公司也紛紛效仿，對(duì)公司的資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行“瘦身”。其實(shí)，它們已經(jīng)在采取行動(dòng)。雪佛龍公司宣布，將在今年出售部分下游資產(chǎn)，其中包括在愛爾蘭的一家大型煉油廠。而在過去12年，殼牌公司已經(jīng)將其煉油產(chǎn)能縮減了40%。

????但盡管大型石油公司紛紛希望擺脫下游資產(chǎn)，但買家卻是眾里難尋。韋斯稱，正是因?yàn)槿绱?，康菲公司的拆分更合理，因?yàn)榕c低價(jià)出售下游資產(chǎn)相比，成立一家獨(dú)立的煉油廠顯然更符合股東利益。

想說分手不容易

????曾經(jīng)經(jīng)歷過分手的人肯定會(huì)說，分手非常殘忍，即便這是正確的選擇。波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)（The Boston Consulting Group）的高級(jí)合作伙伴阿蘭?湯姆森表示：“要讓這些公司進(jìn)行分散經(jīng)營(yíng)，其復(fù)雜性將超乎想象?！?/p>

????他表示，首先需要理清各共享部門之間錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的關(guān)系，比如環(huán)境安全部門和財(cái)務(wù)部。所以，對(duì)于?？松梨谶@樣的行業(yè)巨頭來說，業(yè)務(wù)拆分根本行不通。湯姆森表示：“?？松梨谑凸疽恢笔堑湫偷木C合性石油公司。他們始終都控制著從原油到消費(fèi)者的整條供應(yīng)鏈?！?/p>

????而且，盡管美國(guó)和歐洲的煉油行業(yè)利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)緩慢，但這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)在其他地區(qū)可能反而是優(yōu)勢(shì)。湯姆森表示：“如果公司希望在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)中占據(jù)一席之地，能提供全套技術(shù)和能力這一點(diǎn)依然是非常具有吸引力的?！?/p>

????由于石油價(jià)格起伏不定，并且這種波動(dòng)是一種常態(tài)，因此，石油公司的利潤(rùn)也會(huì)隨之發(fā)生劇烈變化。有些公司不斷萎縮，最終被拆分。但對(duì)于其他公司而言，保持龐大的規(guī)模才是最佳策略。當(dāng)然，這一切都取決于石油價(jià)格能否始終維持在高位，使石油巨頭的拆分能夠“痛并快樂著”。進(jìn)行拆分的公司顯然賭定油價(jià)將持續(xù)走高。但是，如果說石油行業(yè)有一個(gè)必然的不確定因素，那便是油價(jià)。

????（翻譯 劉進(jìn)龍）

????Big Oil may be going out of style, but it is certainly not going away.

????With major players like ConocoPhillips (COP) and Marathon (MRO) splitting up, industry leaders and the market are starting to question the model of the huge, integrated oil company that handles every portion of the business, from plumbing crude out of the ground to selling it at the gas tank.

????But just because the Big Oil's big business model is being questioned -- and rightfully so -- doesn't mean it's going anywhere.

????A few days ago, Fortune pointed out that many big oil companies are undervalued. Splitting them, in theory, could be worth billions of dollars to shareholders. But Big Oil companies need to consider many more factors than short-term shareholder perks before making such drastic decisions. Some may go for it, deciding to opt out of the integrated, one-stop-oil-shop model. But despite the changes major petroleum companies may experience, oil will likely stay Big with a capital B.

When it makes sense to be big, and when it doesn't

????Within the industry, different parts of oil companies are descried as sections of a river: upstream, midstream and downstream. A typical Big Oil company owns the whole river. Upstream involves looking for new wells, drilling them, and pumping crude out of the ground. Midstream means the transportation of new oil by ship routes and pipelines. Then you hit downstream, which is all about processing the product. Downstream assets include refineries, which distill crude into different chemicals, including gasoline. Gas stations, and other retail operations, are also downstream.

????Big profits happen upstream. It pays well and pays quickly to strike oil, but companies have to spend a lot of money up front to explore new sites and then drill them.

????When oil prices are low, it makes sense to have a hand in the refining and retail businesses, since both provide a steady stream of money that can fund searching for new wells and drilling. So when oil prices dipped during 1980s, then stayed low through the early 1990s, it spurred a mega-merger trend among major oil companies. Hence, we currently have companies like ExxonMobil, BpAmaco, and ConocoPhillips.

????That model failed ConocoPhillips, which announced on July 14 that it will spin off its downstream division by the first half of 2012. The market reacted well to the announcement, and share prices of Conoco jumped 7.5% at the news, but the gap faded by the end of the trading day, closing at 1.6% higher than the opening price. Conoco's breakup comes on the heels of Marathon's announcement in January that it would undergo a similar split. The market loved it -- the company's share price rose 30% after the announcement.

????The success of these sales generated speculation that other big oil companies may follow suit. The refining business is volatile, and may be more trouble than its worth, some argue. Also, many "integrated" companies aren't actually integrated in practice, says Phillip Weiss, a senior energy analyst with Argus Research Group. "Generally integrated oil companies do not refine the oil they produce, instead it goes to wherever is closest," he says.

????That was the case with Conoco, and many analysts are starting to look to BP (BP) as the next in line for a split. The company needs to refresh its strategy. Its stock is undervalued, many analysts say. One J.P. Morgan analyst argued that a BP split could unlock $100 billion worth of value for shareholders.

????But BP probably won't split. Not that the integrated model is ideal. It isn't. But it's very hard to cut a giant in half. "The integrated model isn't what it used to be and it may not be necessary," says Weiss, " but if you have it, it may not be easy to get rid of it."

Why Marathon and Conoco are exceptions

????Marathon and Conoco were in better positions to split than other companies. Marathon in particular is different: while many oil and gas companies are shucking their refining businesses in America, Gary Heminger, CEO of Marathon's downstream spinoff Marathon Petroleum, believes the company will have an advantage in the market.

????"Our strategy was that diesel sales around the globe are going to outpace gasoline, so we did something different," Heminger told Fortune.

????Instead of cutting off refineries, Marathon is upgrading them to produce a higher percentage of diesel than its competitors, which Heminger hopes will help the company meet growing demand in the global market.

????Conoco, on the other hand, will probably focus the bulk of its business on oil exploration and drilling. But Conoco's also in a slightly different spot than other super majors, Weiss says. "Conoco's not as large as Chevron (CVX), Exxon (XOM), BP or Shell (RDSA). Sitting where it did, it probably was better positioned to make a run at doing this than larger companies."

????In the wake of these splits, Big Oil companies will be looking at their assets to trim extra flab. But they've already been doing this. Chevron announced plans to sell several downstream assets this year, including a major refinery in Ireland. And Shell has trimmed its refining capacity by 40% over the last 12 years.

????Since many major oil companies are looking to get rid of assets downstream, it can be tough to find buyers. That's why Conoco's spinoff makes sense, says Weiss, because it's better for shareholders to create a standalone refining company then sell downstream assets too cheaply.

Breaking up is hard to do

????As anyone who has ended a relationship will tell you, breaking up can be brutal, even when it's the right call. "The complexity of de-integrating these companies is massive." says Alan Thomson, a Houston-based senior partner at The Boston Consulting Group.

????You have to untangle shared departments, he says, such as environmental safety and finance. That's why it does not make sense for a company like Exxon to split. "ExxonMobil has always been the quintessentially integrated company," Thomson says. "They still very much manage that supply chain from crude to customer."

????Also, profit growth in refining may be slow in the U.S. and Europe, but having that ability can be an advantage in other places. "If you have aspirations in participating in China, being able to offer a full range of technologies and capabilities is still ... very attractive," Thomson says.

????As the price of oil fluctuates, as it is wont to do, oil companies will mutate to profit most. Some will shrink and split. But for others, the best course of action will be to stay big. It all depends on whether the price of oil will stay high enough to warrant the headache of breaking apart the giants. Companies that split are banking that the price of petroleum to stay high. But if there's any guaranteed uncertainty in this business, it's the price of oil.