????如果說債務(wù)違約的幽靈已使美國企業(yè)界膽戰(zhàn)心驚，那么僅憑過去幾周他們在華盛頓的雇傭軍的所作所為上，卻很難看出這一點。

????規(guī)模龐大的商界游說團紛紛致信國會，敦促其有所作為，但在黨派僵局就債務(wù)上限危機愈演愈烈之時，他們卻大都選擇了袖手旁觀。鑒于五天之后（8月2日——譯注）財政部就會宣布無錢支付政府賬單，這一情況似乎有望得到改觀。

????上周四，眾議院計劃對議長約翰?博納（共和黨，俄亥俄州）提高債務(wù)上限的提案進行投票表決，重創(chuàng)之下的行業(yè)協(xié)會終于站出身來，敦促各大企業(yè)聯(lián)合支持這一提案。上周三晚，包括美國商會(U.S. Chamber of Commerce)、美國全國制造商協(xié)會(National Association of Manufacturers)、美國商業(yè)圓桌會議(Business Roundtable)和美國國家家庭住宅建筑協(xié)會(National Association of Home Builders)在內(nèi)的商界代表聯(lián)合簽署了致國會議員的一封信，表示支持提高債限的提案。商界代表的官員這次表示，他們將協(xié)調(diào)一致、積極游說，大力促使膽戰(zhàn)心驚的眾議院共和黨會議通過這一提案。

????但考慮到利害得失，華盛頓各界商業(yè)人士一致認為債務(wù)違約將導(dǎo)致災(zāi)難性后果——商界游說團之前并未采取有力行動，這甚至令不少K街（美國首都華盛頓特區(qū)的一個街區(qū)，聚集著大量的智庫和游說團體——譯注）游說行家一籌莫展。其中一位表示：“從他們（商界游說團）傳達的訊息和游說行動來看，這次真是一反常態(tài)的安靜。這是一種極簡主義方式，而在我的預(yù)期中，商界的呼聲應(yīng)該更加響亮?！?/p>

????商界代表們立刻反駁了這一說法。以商會為例，它傾注了數(shù)月時間組織游說團拜訪那些持懷疑態(tài)度的國會議員，向他們闡明違約的嚴重性。美國全國制造商協(xié)會稅務(wù)及國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟政策副主席多羅茜?科爾曼則稱，他們“已就該問題探討了近一年的時間”。然而，與他們動輒為教會事業(yè)捐助數(shù)千萬的善款相比，他們在這方面的努力可謂微乎其微。

債務(wù)違約，將信將疑

????商界遲遲未能發(fā)起協(xié)調(diào)一致的游說行動以拉響警報，背后有諸多原因。

????在很大程度上，他們認為議會能夠自行找到解決辦法，在債務(wù)違約風(fēng)險真正逼近之前延長聯(lián)邦政府的借款授權(quán)。德克薩斯州前民主黨眾議員肯?本森正在為證券行業(yè)和金融市場協(xié)會(Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association)進行游說工作，他表示該協(xié)會上周才開始請公司會員關(guān)注債務(wù)上限違約問題。他說：“難以想象如果真的違約會是怎樣，我們的公司會員才剛剛意識到這一點——如果再不采取行動，違約或?qū)⒊蔀楝F(xiàn)實。”

????無獨有偶，三年前也發(fā)生過類似情況。當(dāng)時，眾議院未能通過華爾街救市方案，這一結(jié)果令之前志在必得的商界游說團一片嘩然，一位銀行業(yè)的說客甚至將這一失利稱之為一場“無聚首、超驅(qū)動的閃電戰(zhàn)”。

????他說：“我們都期待通過這一方案，當(dāng)結(jié)果不如人意時，我們挺身而出?！币悦绹虝?、美國全國制造商協(xié)會、金融服務(wù)業(yè)圓桌會議(Financial Services Roundtable)和美國商業(yè)圓桌會議為代表的公司首腦全都參與到行動中來，聯(lián)合布什政府及國會領(lǐng)袖，通過對搖擺不定的國會議員施加壓力，以爭取更多的贊成票。美國商業(yè)圓桌會議的喬安娜?施耐德稱：“行動力度之大異乎尋常。我們每天都與財政部部長保爾森會談，我們的公司首腦每天都與他進行電話會議，我們還大力動員所有公司首腦、特別是擁有大規(guī)模就業(yè)中心的公司首腦進行電話游說?！?/p>

????主要商會的說客們稱，這一次，他們到目前為止之所以仍然袖手旁觀事出有因。幾位說客表示，直至本周，并未出臺任何具體可信的提案發(fā)動他們助力債限之爭。照理，缺乏明確的理發(fā)提案并不會影響商界提供資金支持，比如發(fā)起宣傳活動，向投票人闡明利害關(guān)系等。此類活動并不鮮見。

????但問題是，使大財團們緘默不言的最大動因是什么：恐懼最終不利的債限方案會通過立法。只要政府依然將增稅作為減赤手段，那么自身利益岌岌可危的行業(yè)仍希望保留反對的權(quán)利。

????實際上，問題并不在于商界未就債限問題進行積極游說。據(jù)陽光基金會(Sunlight Foundation)就信息披露發(fā)布的一則評論稱，從四月至六月，記錄在案的有140多個團體就債限問題開展過游說活動。其中絕大多數(shù)都集中于保住有限的稅收優(yōu)惠，甚或?qū)で笮碌臏p稅舉措。據(jù)記錄，藍十字-藍盾(Blue Cross Blue Shield)、甲骨文(Oracle)(ORCL)、?？松梨?Exxon Mobil)(XOM)、美國輝瑞(Pfizer)(PFE)、德文能源(Devon Energy)(DVN)、諾斯洛普?格魯門(Northrop Grumman)(NOC)以及沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)(WMT)等公司至少都跟蹤過債限談判的進展。毫無疑問，有些公司的危機感更強。鑒于奧巴馬總統(tǒng)不止一次指責(zé)共和黨為了保護公務(wù)航空公司的減稅政策而犧牲老年人和中等收入者的利益，美國國家公務(wù)航空協(xié)會(National Business Aviation Association)就曾發(fā)起行動，捍衛(wèi)這一政策規(guī)定，稱航空業(yè)堪稱就業(yè)大戶。

????陽光基金會的比爾?阿利森表示：“只要不能利益共享，他們就會有所行動?！?/p>

????或者正如共和黨形容K街那些權(quán)力玩家的投資那樣：“他們絕對沒有真正付出過努力，沒有花過一分一厘。因為他們怯懦膽小。他們之所以袖手旁觀完全是因為擔(dān)心槍打出頭鳥?！?/p>

????債限方案可能不會考慮對權(quán)益項目和稅法進行任何直接修改，如今情勢已經(jīng)明朗，是大財團們的介入之時。沒有什么比即將到來的經(jīng)濟大決戰(zhàn)更能吸引他們的關(guān)注了。但好了傷疤忘了痛，大財團的說客們會以更好地服務(wù)于國家經(jīng)濟經(jīng)濟大局知名故伎重演，極力要求享受特殊待遇。到時值得回味的是：當(dāng)初債務(wù)危機危及國家經(jīng)濟命脈之時，他們?yōu)楹挝茨芸辞迤涮厥饫嫠凇?/p>

????If the specter of a default has spooked corporate America, you wouldn't know it by watching their hired guns in Washington over the last several weeks.

????Aside from sending a handful of letters urging Congress to act, the big business lobby has mostly hugged the sidelines as the partisan standoff over the debt limit crisis intensified. That appears poised to change, now that there are only five days to go until the Treasury Department says it will run out of money to pay all the federal government's bills.

????With Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) set to put his plan for a debt ceiling hike to a vote in the House today, the heaviest-hitting trade associations are finally piping up and urging their member companies to rally behind the proposal. On Wednesday evening, a broad collective of those groups -- including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, the Business Roundtable, and the National Association of Home Builders -- cosigned a letter to Members of Congress endorsing the plan. And officials with those groups said this time, they will be following up with an aggressive, coordinated lobbying effort to try to muscle the package through a jumpy House Republican conference.

????But considering the stakes -- business types in Washington agree a default would be calamitous -- the failure of the business lobby to engage more forcefully earlier has even some veteran K Street hands scratching their heads. "If you look at the totality of the communications and the lobbying efforts, this has been uncharacteristically quiet," says one. "It's been a minimalist approach, and I'd have expected the business community to be much more vocal."

????Representatives of the groups are quick to dispel that point. The Chamber, for example, has spent months organizing lobbying visits to skeptical lawmakers to explain the gravity of the threat. And NAM has been "talking about this issue for almost a year," says Dorothy Coleman, the group's vice president of tax and domestic economic policy. But the commitment barely registers against the eight-figure sums the groups regularly dole out for more parochial causes.

Doubting a default

????There have been at least a few factors at work keeping big business groups from mounting a concerted campaign to sound the alarm.

????For the most part, they've rested on the assumption that Congress would figure out on its own how to extend the federal government's borrowing authority without seriously flirting with default. Ken Bentsen, a former Democratic Congressman from Texas now lobbying for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, said his group only started asking member companies to focus on the issue last week. "It's unthinkable you'd really default, and our members are just coming to grips with the fact that if we don't act, this could really happen," he says.

????There was a similar dynamic three years ago, when the stunning failure in the House of the first attempt to pass the Wall Street bailout sent a relatively complacent business lobby into what one banking lobbyist called a "no-huddle hyper-drive blitzkrieg."

????"We all expected that to pass, too, and when it didn't, we lit it up," this lobbyist said. The Chamber, NAM, the Financial Services Roundtable, and the BRT, which represents top CEOs, all got in on the act, launching a cooperative push with the Bush administration and Congressional leaders to round up votes, in part by generating constituent pressure on wobbly lawmakers. "The effort was extraordinary," says Joanna Schneider, of the BRT. "We talked to Secretary Paulson every day, we had CEO conference calls with the Secretary every day, and we made a massive effort for all the CEOs, particularly where they had large employment centers, to make calls."

????Lobbyists for the major trade groups point to other reasons they've taken a largely hands-off approach so far. Several noted that until this week, there was no specific, credible proposal for them to help push. Presumably, the lack of legislative text wouldn't prevent the groups from bankrolling, say, a major advertising campaign to educate voters about the stakes. Those types of campaigns are hardly uncommon.

????But the argument points to what has been perhaps the most powerful motivator in keeping big business mum: fear of what could end up in whatever package makes it into law. As long as tax hikes remained on the table as a means of trimming the deficit, industries that could see their bottom lines bitten wanted to reserve the right to object.

????Indeed, it's not that there's been no active lobbying on the debt ceiling by corporate interests. From April through June, more than 140 outfits reported lobbying work on the issue, according to a review of disclosure reports by the Sunlight Foundation. The vast majority appears to have engaged to protect narrow tax privileges, or even seek new breaks. Blue Cross Blue Shield, Oracle (ORCL), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE), Devon Energy (DVN), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Wal-Mart (WMT) all reported at least monitoring the talks. Some no doubt felt more threatened than others. With President Obama making a refrain of the charge that Republicans want to protect a tax break for corporate jet owners at the expense of seniors and middle-income earners, the National Business Aviation Association launched an effort to defend the provision as a job-creator.

????"They're all for shared sacrifice as long as they're not the ones sharing," says Bill Allison of the Sunlight Foundation.

????Or, as one Republican lobbyist describes the investment by K Street's power-players: "They couldn't have done less if they tried, spent zero dollars and no cents. And it's because they're gutless. They've not done anything because they don't want to pop their heads above ground and get their heads taken off."

????With any direct changes to entitlement programs and the tax code likely to be left out of the package, the coast is now clear for the big business groups to jump in. And there's nothing like an impending economic Armageddon to marshal their focus. But when this scare subsides, and the big business lobbies go back to pressing for specialized treatment under the guise it serves a greater economic good, it will be worth remembering where these special interests stood when that cause was imperiled.